Conference realignment has dominated this college football offseason.
The Big Ten and Big 12 raided the Pac-12 for 2024 purposes last week, destroying that conference as we once knew it. USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah all have plans to leave the league, which means the Pac-12 would have just four remaining members. As for the Big Ten, the conference will soon include 18 schools.
Perhaps some rebranding is needed next year once these changes take place for the conferences, whose names openly misstate how many members they have and will have.
While off-the-field storylines feel unrelenting, we’re only a few weeks away from actual on-field results. With that in mind, we’re wrapping up our Power Five sports betting previews with this look at the Big Ten.
Ohio State, Michigan the favorites
Ohio State and Michigan each made the College Football Playoff in 2022, and the two marquee programs are expected to headline the Big Ten’s title contenders yet again. Ohio State (+165 on FanDuel and DraftKings and +175 on Barstool Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook) is the favorite to win the conference title on some mobile sportsbooks. Others, like BetMGM, have the two schools with identical +180 odds to win the league title.
No other schools have conference title odds shorter than +500.
BetMGM analyst Chase Kiddy, who often handicaps college football futures, gives an edge to Michigan over Ohio State before the start of this season.
“This year’s head-to-head will be in Ann Arbor,” Kiddy told Sports Handle. “So that’s the first big point in their favor. On the roster side of things, I trust Michigan more. At quarterback, J.J. McCarthy flirted with Heisman relevance last year and is back for another season, while Ohio State just lost its two-year starter via the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft.”
Ohio State is forced to replace quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is +700 on BetRivers to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in his first season with the Houston Texans. McCarthy, Michigan’s top signal caller, is +1800 to win the Heisman Trophy this fall. His teammate, running back Blake Corum, is +5000.
Michigan’s roster is loaded with elite players, with Jim Harbaugh telling The Athletic he thinks his team will have 20 players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Ohio State doesn’t lack talent either, and FanDuel gives both Ohio State (+115) and Michigan (+125) a realistic chance of making the College Football Playoff. Only Georgia (-210) has shorter odds to qualify for the four-team field. Bet365 goes as far as giving Ohio State -120 odds to make the field.
Penn State, Wisconsin possible contenders
Outside of the two brand name contenders, Penn State (+550 on FanDuel) and Wisconsin (+850) are viewed as potential threats to win the Big Ten. Penn State has been solid, but just a step below national playoff contention, during James Franklin’s nine seasons coaching in State College.
Can the Nittany Lions finally get over the hump after winning 11 games in 2022? College Football Network’s Oliver Hodgkinson likes the Nittany Lions’ roster and can see them contending for the league crown. He’s high on the running back room, and he likes the rest of the offense’s makeup.
“Penn State also boasts the best left tackle in the country, an exciting young quarterback in Drew Allar — at this point we don’t even know who will start for Ohio State — and boosted their WR room by landing highly regarded Kent State pass catcher Dante Cephas,” Hodgkinson told Sports Handle.
Penn State 5-star freshman QB Drew Allar has subbed in for Sean Clifford.
His first reps:pic.twitter.com/TVwCQE6eyR
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 2, 2022
He’s high on Penn State’s defense, too. Games with Ohio State and Michigan could very well determine the title chase.
“They have to travel to Ohio State — where they haven’t won since 2011 — and host Michigan in Week 11, which are two games that could define the direction of the entire Big Ten this season,” Hodgkinson said.
Wisconsin is trying to change its old school identity under new head coach Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who runs a high-powered spread attack. Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten West – a division without Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State and thus offering an easier path to the Big Ten title game.
“The Badgers have a leg up on their opposition in the West,” Hodgkinson said. “They’re always defensively dominant, their offensive line boasts some outstanding talent, and running back Braelon Allen is going to bully his way through the Big Ten this year.”
Depth lacking
While the Big Ten is viewed as one of the top leagues in the country in part due to its financial standing, the league’s depth doesn’t quite match some other Power Five leagues.
Sure, Ohio State and Michigan are playoff contenders, and Penn State and Wisconsin look like Top 25-caliber teams, but does the league have any other teams that could threaten to win eight or more games?
In terms of conference title odds, there’s a steep drop after the first few teams, with Iowa’s Big Ten title odds listed at +1200 on FanDuel. After the Hawkeyes, no other team has conference title odds shorter than Minnesota at +3400.
Targeting the sportsbooks’ win totals in futures betting for Big Ten West teams might be an underrated and intriguing market, Kiddy says.
“Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota all finished with at least seven wins in 2022, yet only one Big Ten West team has a win total [listed] above 6.5,” Kiddy said. “And of course, that team is Wisconsin, which isn’t even on that list because it finished at 6-6 last season. There are a lot of wins available in the Big Ten West, and somebody has to collect them. So you can kind of go wherever you like, in terms of personal preference, but there’s clearly an opening here.”
