Following the New York Jets’ thrilling overtime win over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night, ESPN broadcaster Joe Buck described the result as a “Pyrrhic victory,” as the team braced for devastating news regarding the injury status of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers was scheduled to undergo an MRI on Tuesday, but Jets coach Robert Saleh said in the postgame press conference there were indications that the four-time NFL MVP suffered a torn Achilles tendon. ESPN reported Tuesday morning that, according to sources, Rodgers had indeed ruptured his Achilles, thereby ending his season.
Consequently, the odds on the Jets to win the Super Bowl got significantly longer at major mobile sportsbooks across the nation as Monday night gave way to Tuesday morning. FanDuel listed the Jets at 65/1 to win the Super Bowl early Tuesday, slightly higher than DraftKings, where Gang Green is 60/1. Ahead of the first Sunday of the NFL season, DraftKings gave the Jets odds of 16/1 to capture the Lombardi Trophy, good for eighth-shortest in the league.
Ironically, the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers’ former team, now have shorter odds than the Jets to win the Super Bowl, priced at 50/1 at DraftKings. Jordan Love threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns in the Packers’ 38-20 win over the Bears, his first start as Rodgers’ full-time replacement.
A disastrous debut, a failed promo
There was a buzz inside MetLife Stadium on Monday night when Rodgers stepped onto the field carrying an American flag on the 22nd anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy. The Jets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in more than a decade, entered the season with high hopes to win its first Super Bowl since 1969.
But Rodgers played only four snaps on Monday, finishing without a completion on one passing attempt. (He had another incompletion nullified by a defensive holding penalty.)
On a 1st-and-10 from the Jets’ 43, Rodgers suffered a lower leg injury on a sack by Bills defensive end Leonard Floyd. Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown stumbled on the play, allowing Floyd to rush in unabated.
One operator that offers pick’em-style games, Underdog Fantasy, had posted what seemed a can’t-miss promotion on Monday associated with Rodgers’ total passing yards against the Bills. For users who won while incorporating a prop on Rodgers’ total of just 0.5 yards, Underdog would match all deposits up to $100. Rodgers finished, however, with zero total yards.
Immediate effects of Rodgers’ absence
Rodgers’ replacement, Zach Wilson, went 14-of-21 for 140 yards and a touchdown in the 22-16 win. Some books are taking a cautious approach with their futures on the Jets. Caesars Sportsbook, for instance, listed the Jets at 35/1 on Tuesday morning to win the Super Bowl, odds that are far shorter than several other operators.
The Jets’ punishing defense forced four turnovers against the Bills. The shorter odds may be incorporating the notion that the Jets could pursue another quarterback before the trade deadline. As a rule of thumb, major sportsbooks have a tendency to move the line several points in the absence of a star quarterback. At DraftKings, the Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites over the Jets in Week 2, a line that has ballooned to 7.5.
One platform that bears monitoring on Tuesday is Sporttrade, a sports betting exchange that allows users to make trades on sport outcomes in a similar fashion to trading stocks. When the Jets trailed 13-3 at halftime on Monday, a buy contract on the Bills went for around $91. The accompanying price on a Jets buy contract went for about $10, resulting in implied moneyline odds of +882.
Sporttrade also offers a market for NFL futures odds. Ahead of Monday’s matchup, the Jets had the sixth-best futures price on the exchange. As of Tuesday morning, a Jets futures contract paid approximately +8800 at Sporttrade. The Rodgers injury left the Jets tied for 19th with the Broncos for championship price.
In the run-up to the opening week of the season, wagers on the Jets to win the Super Bowl represented about 11% of the handle at DraftKings. At the time, the Jets ranked second in volume among all teams on the futures market, trailing only the Bengals (12%).
One bettor is sitting on a $5,000 Jets Super Bowl ticket placed in March that would pay $90,000. There is another $5,000 wager at the sportsbook on the Jets to win the AFC. If the Jets make it to the Super Bowl, the bet will pay $55,000.
