Give Patriots coach Bill Belichick enough time to prepare, and he’s proven he can craft a way to beat almost anybody. And time is something Belichick has had plenty of since the NFL schedule came out last spring. Action Network‘s Mike Calabrese thinks that time means the “under” in Sunday’s Patriots-Eagles game is a good bet. That’s just one of five offerings from our colleagues at Action Network.
Starting today and every Sunday throughout the NFL season, Sports Handle will bring you the five “Best Bets” from Action Network‘s experts, including their research and arguments for why each pick is a good bet.
Bengals vs. Browns
Pick: Browns +2.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Charlie DiSturco: There’s a lot to love about the Cleveland Browns. If Deshaun Watson can rekindle anything close to his 2020 self, the sky’s the limit for Kevin Stefanski’s squad.
I’m extremely high on Cleveland this season. And what better way to start the season off than with a win against your division rival in Week 1?
Think back to last season, when Bengals QB Joe Burrow suffered a ruptured appendix and needed surgery. His status was up in the air to open the season and he never saw preseason action. What happened? He threw four interceptions and went 33-of-53 in an overtime loss to Pittsburgh at home.
A similar timeline has happened once again in 2023. Burrow suffered a calf strain during practice and once again missed all of preseason. Zac Taylor seems confident in Burrow returning, but again, it will have come only with practice run-throughs.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Titans vs. Saints
Pick: Titans +3.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Stuckey: I’m seeing a lot of love for the Saints after their acquisition of quarterback Derek Carr, but they still have an old, broken roster with a coaching staff that doesn’t really move the needle. I’m definitely looking for chances to fade New Orleans early, especially as a favorite.
I was overjoyed to see this particular matchup given that I have an affinity for backing the Mike Vrabel-led Titans when they are underdogs. Vrabel has squeezed as much out of his roster as any coach in the league since arriving in Music City, as evidenced by his teams going over their preseason win total in four of five seasons. Over that span, he’s the most profitable coach on the moneyline as an underdog with a 20-19 outright record for a splendid 47.8% ROI.
Vrabel should also have his defense, now healthy, ready to roll heading into the regular season. I’m buying a Titans bounce-back this season, and I’m starting with this game.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Packers vs. Bears
Pick: Packers +1.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox
Anthony Dabbundo: Are we sure the Packers are worse than the Bears?
The market seems to be pricing in a huge leap year for Justin Fields, and there’s certainly been a lot of offseason helium for him, but I’m not quite seeing it for the Bears quarterback. He adds a ton of rushing value, but his passing numbers remain a major concern overall. Green Bay is better defensively — defensive coordinator Joe Barry concerns aside — and the talent gap is quite massive.
The Bears are still a year away from competing while in the middle of their rebuild. Green Bay has the better offensive line and a much more reliable running game to help out their young quarterback.
This game is primed for the Week 1 overreaction of the year for whoever wins this game, but Green Bay should be lined as a tossup at worst.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
Eagles vs. Patriots
Pick: Under 46
Book: Caesars
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Mike Calabrese: Right when I saw this total hovering in the mid-40s, I thought about all the time Patriots Coach Bill Belichick would have to prepare for the Eagles’ offense. Belichick is the greatest defensive mind in the history of the NFL and has made good use of extra time throughout the course of his career.
And now Belichick has his best starting 11 on defense since Brady left in 2020. Last season, New England finished with the best defense in the NFL, according to the DVOA weighted rankings. This offseason, the Patriots added Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez to their secondary. Reports out of New England are that Gonzalez is set to start and is ready to be a difference maker from the first snap.
Situationally, I also love this play. The Patriots have been a home underdog on eight occasions since Tom Brady left. The under has paid out in six of those eight contests. When facing a superior opponent, Belichick likes to pair a ball-control offense with an expertly designed defensive game plan. The Eagles, while viewed by the public as a dominant offense in the NFC, were actually a great “under” team down the stretch last season, cashing five-of-seven at the window to close out their 2022-23 campaign.
The Eagles’ defense was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks last season. It surrendered the third-lowest opposing passer QBR while amassing 70 sacks, the third-highest regular season total in NFL history. But their run defense was mediocre at best.
Cowboys vs. Giants
Pick: Giants +3.5
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Simon Hunter: It’s the first Sunday Night Football game of the season and we’ve got a home divisional ‘dog at more than a field goal. Not only do the Giants have the better head coach, but they might just have the
better quarterback.
Everybody has been telling us this Cowboys team is top three in the NFC. The Giants, on the other hand, are an afterthought. Most view Brian Daboll’s team as one that got lucky last year and is destined to finish this season below .500.
This game has my favorite trend for this matchup: Divisional home underdogs are 25-13 against the spread in Week 1 (including 7-0 since 2018), 15-2 since ‘12 and 21-5 since ’09.
The Giants may lose this game, but it won’t be by more than a field goal.
For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.
