By now, you’re probably aware of the cross-marketing coming on Super Bowl Sunday, where DraftKings has partnered with Molson Coors to offer a $500,000 pool based on guessing the content of “The High Stakes Beer Ad” featuring Coors Light and Miller Lite.
DraftKings is offering a free contest involving 12 multiple choice questions about the ad, and whoever gets the most correct answers wins $100,000. The top 2,825 contestants will all win something, but know this: As of this writing, and with 13 days to go, over 45,000 people have already entered the contest.
Still, even if it gets chopped up, there’s plenty of potential individual winnings, unlike in FanDuel’s “Kick of Destiny” campaign, where $10 million in free bets will be split up among every one of the sportsbook’s customers who places a $5 wager on the Super Bowl (assuming Gronk can kick a field goal).
“Molson Coors and DraftKings went to great lengths to keep the commercial’s outcome a secret, with multiple different endings filmed during the ad shoot,” read a press release announcing the gambit. “Molson Coors’ CEO doesn’t even know how the ad will end.”
OK, cool. No one knows nuthin’. But … I mean, there has to be an edge somewhere, right? Perhaps we need to break down the questions.
Which beer is mentioned first? The choices are Coors Light and Miller Lite (duh). Some history: Molson and Coors mashed themselves together in a “merger of equals” in 2005, renaming the company Molson Coors, which then in 2016 bought Miller Brewing. In short: Within the company, Coors is probably seen as the old-time champ, Miller Lite as a new upstart. Being that they’re trying to sell both beers, my lean is Miller Lite gets mentioned first.
Which slogan is mentioned first? Things are already insane here, as we’ve got six choices. They are “Cold as the Rockies,” “Great Taste, Less Filling,” “Mountain Cold Refreshment,” “It’s Miller Time,” “Made to Chill,” and “Original Lite Beer.” Well, good luck here, but I think you’re going to want to stack this question with the first question. So with that in mind, I’m going low-key with “It’s Miller Time.”
What type of floor does the bar have? Choices are wood, checkered, and shag carpet. Well, shag carpet would be a strange choice for a bar, but it’s entirely possible this commercial could be a time travel odyssey, so maybe. But I’m going chalk here: Wood.
Total number of beers, over/under 15.5. Well, clearly, there’s going to be a lot of beers in this commercial. I can already see people going over this thing like the Zapruder film. But let’s be real: The 15.5 is a lofty number, which indicates to me they’re begging us to take the under. Zig where others zag, book the over.
What object will shatter in the first half of the ad? Choices here are a Miller Lite bottle, a Coors Light neon sign, a fancy watch, or a stained glass window. I feel like breaking either of the brands is bad marketing, and breaking a stained glass window is just begging for the Moral Majority to rise up again. Fancy watch is the clear choice here. Down with the bourgeoisie!
What type of dog is pictured behind the bar? Pick between a golden retriever, a Boston terrier, a collie, or a samoyed. Being that I never heard of a “samoyed,” I’m tempted to go there, but … man, I don’t know. I need to run some sims. Back against the wall, I’m going golden. Everyone loves goldens.
Number of people with facial hair, over/under 2.5: I think this should be stacked with the over/under beer question. If you’re under one, you should be under both. But I’m over on the beer, and every single male I know between the ages of 18-55 has some facial hair, so yeah, slamming the over.
Which branded roller coaster will be used? Options are Coors Light, Miller Lite, or — wait until you hear this — no coaster at all. Wow. This one is bonkers. I’m leaning “no coaster,” as it would seem bad from a marketing perspective to give only one brand a roller coaster. Also: Combining roller coaster-ing and slugging beers doesn’t seem like a +EV situation.
What is the bartender wearing? Options here are leather jacket, suspenders, football jersey, or tuxedo T-shirt. Honestly, none of these options is particularly appealing, but I’m going to go with suspenders. Again, this is a stacking situation with the type of flooring at the bar. I leaned “wood,” which is classy, and suspenders are classy, so boom.
What crazy big game commercial thing will we see? Our choices are: Dancing animals; high octane martial arts; celebrity cameos; or mega explosions. Dancing animals is already topping the list, as we know there’s a picture of a dog. I’m not buying explosions or martial arts, and celebrity cameos are a little played out. … Yeah, gimme dancing animals.
Will the Coors Light Silver Bullet Train show up? Simple yes or no, and I’m going with yes. Why? Because based on question #2, we know Molson Coors isn’t completely rebranding everything there. Silver Bullet train feels like a layup here. And lastly …
Who wins the big game commercial in the end? Six choices here: Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet, Vizzy Hard Seltzer, Blue Moon, Fosters. Well, well, well. There’s a “winner”? Again, I find it impossible the company is going to choose one beer over the other. Vizzy Hard Seltzer — which I’ve never heard of before just this second — stands out as a late-commercial upset victor. I feel like this is currently the contrarian play, but I’ll have to wait for ownership projections to come in.
By the way, the odds of guessing all the correct answers is one in 5.8 million and change. In short: Good luck.