Hereβs the story, of a man named Brady, who was bringing up β¦ well, actually, bringing down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ odds to win the Super Bowl next year. (Sorry for The Brady Bunch cliche there. I was just β true story — discussing the genius of the Brady Bunch kids’ βTime to Change, so it was top of mind.)
Anyway, the Bucs’ Super Bowl odds have gone from upwards of 50/1 all the way down to 4/1 at the South Point (the odds are anywhere from +700 to +800 at the online books). One reason theyβve fallen so much at South Point: A bettor walked in there last Thursday and placed a significant amount of money on the Buccaneers to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at those 50/1 odds, according to a VSiN report.Β
South Point then moved the odds to 30/1, and then, a few hours later, the same bettor came back in to wager a little more at 25/1.
βAt this point, I’m thinking, ‘This is kind of interesting,'” Chris Andrews, South Pointβs bookmaker, told VSiN Sunday.
Later that day, the bettor — who was unknown to Andrews — came back again, dropped more money at 25/1, and Andrews lowered the odds to 15/1.
Then Sunday rolled around and Brady unretired, and Andrews dropped the odds all the way down to +400 and is facing a βsix-figure liabilityβ if Brady — who, at age 2,482, is the oldest NFL quarterback in history — can pick up an eighth Super Bowl championship.
These past two months Iβve realized my place is still on the field and not in the stands. That time will come. But itβs not now. I love my teammates, and I love my supportive family. They make it all possible. Iβm coming back for my 23rd season in Tampa. Unfinished business LFG pic.twitter.com/U0yhRKVKVm
— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) March 13, 2022
And South Point wasn’t the only one: The Westgate SuperBook also got hit, according to Jay Kornegay, the vice president of sportsbook operations. Whether it was the same bettor is unknown (although likely).
Of course, thereβs an unasked question in all of this: Did this bettor know something about Bradyβs return? And the answer is β¦
Well ….
β¦ maybe? Maybe if the bettor stopped at one 50/1 bet, I wouldnβt blink. But coming back a second and third time the same day to bet at lower odds? Come on. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times, pull the Bucs off the board already.
“The bets we took Thursday, March 10, thereβs no doubt in my mind he knew Brady was coming back,” Kornegay told Sports Handle. “Did he have inside info? Thatβs the definition of inside info, and there should be an investigation by the NFL. Either Brady or someone close to him spilled the beans. The NFL is always touting integrity, and this is something they have to look into. They need to look at how this got out.”
Devilβs advocate: Maybe the bettor had no idea of Bradyβs plans and had just been listening to Bill Simmons, who has been saying since Bradyβs retirement announcement that he doesnβt entirely believe the GOAT had hung up his cleats (cloven hooves?). In fact, Simmons, on his latest podcast after Bradyβs announcement, still thinks Brady might be headed to the San Francisco 49ers (+1300 on DraftKings for those Niners Super Bowl futures).
My Tom Brady prediction for 2022 isβ¦pic.twitter.com/1qV0K7wkDn
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) February 16, 2022
Or maybe the bettor was simply listening to Tom βNever Say Neverβ Brady himself.
One bet at 50/1? Thatβs a flier. Two more bets the very same day at 25/1 — and maybe more at other books — starts to feel like someone who either knows someone with knowledge of Bradyβs next move, or someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows Bruce Ariansβ daughterβs UPS driver or something.
Seriously, do you know someone who knows someone? I do. I have a former NFL head coach who is one Kevin Bacon away from me. Iβve never been able to capitalize on this, but you’d better believe I would if given the opportunity.Β
I am not the βconnectedβ type. I donβt have a Rolodex filled with sports figures. Truth is, I donβt even have a Rolodex. I am about as much of an insider as Ariansβ daughterβs UPS driver. But still: I know a guy who knows a former NFL head coach, and obviously, Iβm not the only one in that position. And again, Iβm a nobody who is not actively seeking knowledge.
Of course, there are plenty of guys who know a ton of guys and are actively seeking knowledge. Basically, anyone who bets on sports for a living.
Chasing it down
βEverybody chases information. Few people get the right info, and almost everyone thinks they have info that actually matters when it does not,β said Adam Chernoff, who has been on both sides of the glass and now works for Covers.com.Β
As for the sportsbooks themselves? Chernoff says itβs pretty much the same.
βEvery bet expresses information and is the best tool for sportsbooks to use to gauge things,β he said. βBut much like the people trying to interpret it to bet on themselves, a lot of books can’t see what matters either.β
Brad Feinberg, a pro bettor, doesnβt think true inside information is that prevalent. And if there was a bettor who routinely got it, theyβd be a fool to tell him (or me).
βTo get someone to admit that? Youβd have to be an idiot,β Feinberg said. βIβve never gotten any real inside information, but if I could? Oh my god, it would be incredible.β
And while Feinberg doesnβt think itβs happening all the time, he does believe the inside game is out there. But much like Chernoff, he says you have to tread lightly.
βListen, if you know the general manager and he tells you theyβre taking a linebacker with the third pick instead of an offensive lineman, you can make a fortune,β Feinberg said. βBut information is like free throw shooting. Maybe your info is like Shaq, and only going to be good half the time, or maybe itβs like Steph Curry, and youβre hitting 90%.β
And as for this Brady bettor?
βI think the guy was probably guessing, unless he knows Tom Brady,β Feinberg said.
Another big-time bettor said information will sometimes fall into his lap, but that he’s not out there trying to find assistant locker room attendants to pump for intel — and no one he knows in the business is doing that either.
“Oftentimes that information has just as much of a chance of being faulty,” said the bettor, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Investigation station
While Kornegay, who said his book in on the hook on Bucs futures for “low six figures,” believes the NFL needs to investigate this, he’s also not entirely sure how to stamp out future incidents.
“Iβm not sure how to stop it, but it starts with internal policing,” Kornegay said. “The NFL has said it for years and years: Donβt talk about injuries, don’t talk about anything, and this is a little different, a season-long prop. If it slipped out, or one of his friends let it slip, or even one of his kids, then that was innocent. But it’s still something that should be stressed and should be supported by the league: Keep information locked down. That goes from the player to everyone they know. Their friends, family, agents, everyone. Weβre a believer in transparency. Itβs our friend. Either no one knows or everyone knows.
“The way this went down … the NFL needs to reiterate those internal rules.”
Whether it’s being pursued or not, inside information is always going to be part of the sports betting landscape — and no one is going to turn their nose up should they receive it. Can we police it? I donβt even think we should try. Itβs bettors vs. the books, and every little bit of information is going to be used by both sides in the ongoing effort to come out on top.
By the way, my motherβs ex-business partner has a son who works in Hollywood and Iβm 100% reaching out to ask him what the Oscar whispers are right now. Wish me luck.