• About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling
This site contains commercial content
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
No Result
View All Result

Mahomes’ Ankle Speculation Twists Line Movement In Chiefs-Bengals Rematch

'We knew [Mahomes] was hurt but didn’t think there would be a tidal wave of Cincinnati support.'

Brett Smiley by Brett Smiley
January 27, 2023
in Sports
patrick mahomes

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The AFC Championship rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals has taken the point spread and moneyline down a path like nothing we’ve seen before prior to a championship weekend.

Odds have shifted from an opener of Chiefs -3 at some shops to as far the other way as Bengals -2.5 before whipsawing back to Chiefs -1.5, with the moneyline moving correspondingly. Call it the parabolic championship, and the movement may not be done yet before the kickoff at 6:30 p.m. Sunday.

FanDuel line movement via ScoresAndOdds

The main variable here, of course, is the health of probable NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high-ankle sprain during the first quarter of K.C.’s divisional round win Saturday over the Jacksonville Jaguars. A gimpy Mahomes remained in the game, then was sidelined for X-ray of the ankle, then returned for the second half, during which he led a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive.

Meanwhile, the last image we had of the Bengals was of Joe Burrow & Co. — 5-point underdogs — burying the Bills 27-10 in Buffalo Sunday in a game that felt more like 42-7. The Bills no-showed on their snowy and slippery home turf, and maybe the team wasn’t that terrific this season to begin with. And then the 26-year-old Burrow swaggered off and took a jab at naysayers and contingency planners on social media.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Joe Burrow (@joeyb_9)

Things got crazy when some bettors braced for the worst about Mahomes — that he might be ruled out for the AFC Championship, giving way to backup Chad Henne — and focused on the Bengals having beaten the Chiefs three consecutive times over the past two seasons, most recently a Bengals comeback on Dec. 4, the last time the Chiefs lost.

β€œWe posted KC minus three on Sunday, which was short-lived,” said Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sportsbook operations at the Westgate SuperBook.

β€œWe didn’t even take any money at plus 3, but adjusted, went down to PK, believe it or not. I don’t think we’ve ever done that. Our opening number minus 3 wasn’t our best work,” he said with a laugh. “We probably under-evaluated the injury. We knew [Mahomes] was hurt but didn’t think there would be a tidal wave of Cincinnati support.”

“Once we got to PK we took two of the biggest wagers we’ve taken so far,” Kornegay recalled on Thursday. “From Sunday night to Tuesday morning it was basically all Cincinnati money, and Tuesday morning reached a peak at 2.5, when we started getting a lot of money on K.C. — on the moneyline, and that was from sharp players.

“I would categorize the money we got early on Cincinnati, from pick to 2.5, a majority of recreational public play.Β  And then Wednesday, we continued to take sharper play on Kansas City at plus 1.5 — finally reached Thursday morning, we have Kansas City minus 1. That was the journey, and it was pretty interesting.”

Mahomes’ demise greatly exaggerated?

(Shutterstock)

β€œIt’s likely a Grade 2, moderate high-ankle/eversion sprain on his back right foot, which is something he can play through,” is how the injury was sized up by Dr. David J. Chao, aka ProFootballDoc, a longtime team physician for the San Diego Chargers who now analyzes injury impact for Sports Injury Central.

β€œAnyone but Mahomes, I’d be more worried about it.”

However, it is not quite nothing to worry about.

β€œYes, it’s a real injury and a physical limitation, but it’s one that Mahomes is uniquely equipped to handle,” Chao said. “He uses all sorts of off-balance throws at different arm angles already, and he has supreme arm talent. Maybe he won’t be able to push the ball as far down the field, but he should be able to make most throws. He’ll have enough mobility to navigate the pocket and throw. The biggest physical limitation will be his ability to run in space.”

Mahomes himself has helped quell some fears about how severely he’ll be impaired by the injury.

“I thought I had a good day yesterday,” Mahomes told reporters Thursday. “Overall, probably better than I expected.”

These comments, plus video of Mahomes jogging at practice and even stepping off a podium, examined on social media with Zapruder-like intensity, coincided with the spread swinging back in favor of the home team.

β€œEveryone is going to be monitoring Kansas City practices,” Kornegay said. β€œI think the way he walks, the way he jogs, is going to continue to influence the line. It will be under a microscope. I’m estimating he’s probably around 70 percent.”

Here’s a snippet of the media viewing portion of practice/stretching – Mahomes breaking out into a jog with every camera in Missouri on him today: pic.twitter.com/bI7O35trI4

— Michele Steele (@MicheleSteele) January 25, 2023

Speaking of numbers and percentages, Chao’s team at Sports Injury Central rates Mahomes at 84, β€œwhich doesn’t mean that he’ll be at 84 percent health, but that people can expect 84 percent of his usual statistical or fantasy production” if he were fully healthy, Chao explained.

Playing surface and other variables

Chao said Mahomes might get an injection of Toradol — a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug — but that has a limited numbing effect. He said it’s also very difficult to tape a high ankle sprain.

β€œBut in the normal course of playing football, the injury itself isn’t going to worsen,” Chao said. β€œOf course there’s the risk that the leg gets twisted again or a player falls on it, but that risk is always present regardless.”

So does that have your pendulum swinging back to the Bengals, conjuring images of the hyper-confident if not cocky QB Burrow smoking a cigar in the visitors’ locker room?

Perhaps you’re imagining Mahomes as a sitting duck, with flashbacks of the QB running for his life in Super Bowl LV — the Buccaneers’ 31-9 throttling of Kansas City when Tampa Bay devoured the Chiefs’ lackluster offensive line?

β€œA lot of people are saying, ‘Oh, this will be like the Tampa Bay Super Bowl all over again,'” said Chao. β€œWell, no, it’s not. Kansas City’s offensive line is much better now. I’d be more concerned about the Bengals’ offensive line against the Chiefs’ pass rush on Kansas City’s grass surface. Even if there’s a light dusting, there’s going to be much better treads than the slick, snowy turf that slowed down Buffalo’s pass rush last week.”

The Bills only brought down Burrow for one sack last week as a Bengals offensive line speckled with backups mostly held up. Cincinnati spent half its time attacking with the run game, springing Joe Mixon and backfield mates for 172 yards on 34 carries.

Just got out of #chiefs practice. We watched Patrick Mahomes throw three passes. Here they are all three. Next time we see him on the field will be at Arrowhead Sunday vs the #bengals pic.twitter.com/0VePAnUmqK

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 27, 2023

β€œ[Mahomes] has got a hell of a head coach and a terrific offensive mind,” Kornegay said. “I would think with the limitations they’re working with, they will come up with a lot of different schemes to keep him from having to move too much, and allow him to get the ball out quickly.”

How about adrenaline? Sure, there will be plenty of that in the mix, too.

“If you’re not fired up to play a team that beat you three times in a row coming up in the AFC Championship Game,” Mahomes said Thursday, “you’re not gonna be excited for anything.”

β€œI can’t think of a comparison to a [line] movement like this in a championship game,” Kornegay reflected. β€œWe’ve seen it in the regular season where a star QB is hurt, or ruled out, and a line will go all over the place.”

But not at this stage of the season.

In a way, at this point, it feels like both teams are simultaneously underdogs and favorites. And probably some folks are straddling the line, looking for a middle.

But before the AFC intrigue, most bookmakers will get some less anxious viewing in the NFC title game when the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) host the San Francisco 49ers at 3pm ET.

“That one is a bookmaker’s dream,” Kornegay said. β€œWe’re getting really solid action both ways, and the majority of the handle is going to come in over the weekend. I think we’re going to get a lot of recreational play. Those two teams attract a lot of attention and dollars.”

ShareTweetShare
Brett Smiley

Brett Smiley

Brett Smiley is editor-in-chief and co-founder of Sports Handle, which joined forces with the US Bets team in November 2018. He focuses on the sports betting industry and legislation. He's a recreational sports bettor and DFS player himself, focusing on the NFL. In a past life, Smiley practiced commercial litigation in New York City and previously wrote for FOX Sports and SI.com. He lives in New Jersey with his family.

Related Posts

chiefs eagles super bowl
Industry

Kansas Sportsbooks Lose $14.5 Million On Super Bowl LVII Wagers

February 23, 2023
chiefs-mahomes-super-bowl-celebration
Legislation

Missouri Committees Move Sports Betting Bills Forward In House, Senate

February 23, 2023
Load More

Top Stories

taylor mathis

Taylor Mathis Got Sacrificed At The Altar Of Responsible Gambling

March 20, 2023
fanduel baseball wall

Premade Same Game Parlays Are Sucker Bets

March 13, 2023
maginfier-over-small-print

Read The Fine Print: A Proposed Federal Rule Could Change Everything For Indian Gaming

March 6, 2023
roman reigns wwe

Colorado Denies Report Stating That It’s Considering WWE Wagering

March 8, 2023

State Sports Betting Guides

Ohio (U.S. state) flag waving against clear blue sky, close up, isolated with clipping path mask alpha channel transparency, perfect for film, news, composition

Ohio Sports Betting – Where To Play, Bonus Offers And Promo Codes

by Brian Pempus
March 21, 2023

Downtown Detroit at twilight (Shutterstock)

Michigan Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
March 21, 2023

VA captial

Virginia Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonus Offers

by Brett Smiley
January 17, 2023

nj flag

New Jersey Sports Betting — Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
October 20, 2022

pa online sportsbooks

Pennsylvania Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonuses

by Brett Smiley
October 6, 2022

Canada Sports Betting Guides

Canada Sports Betting – Best Sportsbook Apps & Bonus Offers

British Columbia Sports Betting – Legal Update, Available Sportsbooks, and FAQ

Ontario Sports Betting – Legal Status And Where To Play

SportsHandle

  • Analysis
  • Casino
  • Features
  • Horse Racing
  • Industry
  • Legal
  • Legislation
  • Opinion
  • Podcasts
  • Poker
  • Politics
  • Promotions
  • Regulation
  • Sports
  • Uncategorized

Better Collective

This website is owned and operated by Better Collective USA. Trademarks and copyrights referenced on this website are and shall remain the exclusive property of their respective owners and/or licensors. Please be sure to visit the operator’s website(s) to review their terms & conditions. We advise you to read these carefully as they contain important information. Copyright Β© 2023 USBets.com | Better Collective USA
21 Play Responsibly
Gamble Aware West Virginia
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
GameSense

Search Sports Handle

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling

No Result
View All Result
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News

loading

Please wait while you are redirected to the right page...