Among the many numbers that attract the interest of seasoned NFL bettors on the Las Vegas Strip, there’s one in particular at Circa Sports that draws their attention — as well as that of the sports wagering industry overall — as summer nears its conclusion: the overlay.
For the uninitiated, “overlay” is the amount of money an operator may need to add to the pot to reach its guaranteed payouts for a contest.
Circa has guarantees totaling $14 million this year for its pick ’em and survivor contests. Those break down as $6 million in guaranteed payouts for the sportsbook’s fifth annual pick ’em contest, the Circa Million V, and $8 million for the Survivor Pro Football Contest, now in its fourth year.
The $14 million is a $2 million increase from 2022, when the $12 million in guaranteed payouts included an overlay of about $1.3 million to ensure its no-rake status. The entire overlay came in the Circa Million IV, which had 4,691 entries at $1,000 apiece. The Las Vegas-based sportsbook kept the pick ’em contest prize at $6 million this year, but upped the survivor pool payout to $8 million after there were 6,133 entrants last year and payouts exceeding the $6 million guaranteed.
The decision to up the ante to $8 million appeared risky, especially when the combined overlay was near $8 million in mid-August and still $3.5 million as of Monday morning. But Circa has seen a late surge of entrants for both contests ahead of Saturday’s 2 p.m. local time deadline, reducing the potential overlay projection to a six-figure amount.
“Each and every year we try to increase that number or do some different things in terms of deepening the pay scale,” Circa Director of Operations Jeff Benson told Sports Handle. “Six million felt like the right number for Circa Million and eight million felt like the right number for Circa Survivor.”
Behind the guaranteed payout figures
The decision to increase the guaranteed payouts came after discussions among Benson, Circa CEO and owner Derek Stevens, and Vice President of Operations Mike Palm that covered a variety of factors, including potential growth from year-over-year. That growth has been most apparent with Circa Survivor, which was 423 entries shy of the 8,000 needed to eliminate the overlay as of 3 p.m. PT Wednesday.
As opposed to last year when it edged over the 6,000 needed, the 2023 Circa Survivor could see a payout well above $8 million to its eventual winner or winners, with Benson projecting the final entry count to be near 9,000.
“The amount of growth in the Circa Survivor is just absolutely staggering,” he said. “It’s something that our entire team really loves and enjoys. It’s something that people have really rallied around.
“The pick ’em contest is something that’s been done in a number of different iterations by a lot of different operators, whereas Circa Survivor, there’s really nobody that’s doing it to the scale we’re doing. So it’s really cool to watch the growth from year one to year four.”
2023 Weekly Contest Routine* 🏈🏆
WED 10am #CircaSurvivor selections open
THU 10am #CircaSportsMillion lines open
SAT 4pm Selections due
SAT 6pm @DerekJStevens and @JeffreyBenson12 talk selections on @VSiNLive
SAT 7pm Selections posted online*Survivor holiday weeks differ. https://t.co/ecpiDiCTo5
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 6, 2023
Benson conceded Circa Million V will likely fall short of the 6,000 entries needed to eliminate an overlay — there were 4,315 entries as of 3 p.m. PT on Wednesday — but the 5,400-5,500 he is projecting would result in overlay between $500,000-$600,000, a reduction by more than half compared to 2022. That percentage reduction was a realistic goal in his eyes and a sign the contests are enjoying solid growth.
“We try to toe that line and put out a number that is going to be difficult to get to, but we think we can maybe get to it,” Benson explained. “Each and every year we try to go bigger and better. It’s cool to see people respond. Word-of-mouth continues to spread, marketing continues to spread, and we get a lot of new faces in every year and the contest continues to build momentum.”
Quarterly prizes an important driver
One of the points of attraction for the Circa Million is the quarterly prize payouts over the course of the NFL season. That $1.2 million in total prize money for the four quarters keeps contestants motivated. There are also rewards to motivate those riding a wave of losing picks. Circa offers a $100,000 booby prize to the last-place finisher and $50,000 to the entrant who finished second worst.
“It’s a huge part [of the growth], credit to Derek for coming up with the idea,” Benson said. “You come out of the gate 3-12, you know you really don’t have much of a chance the rest of the season, and the contest isn’t as fun and exciting as opposed to coming out 12-3 and really being in the thick of things.
“I think what the quarterly prizes have added is an element for the little guy to be involved. Or, to switch your strategy and focus if you have a bad couple of weeks [to chase] the booby prize. You string together a four or five-week quarter when you have only one or two losses, and you’re winning six figures.”
Oh hi @CircaSports pic.twitter.com/DGXpSZjAPF
— rxgamble (@rxgamble) September 6, 2023
Building the brand beyond Nevada
Benson noted that between 80% and 90% of the entrants are from out of state, with most of them competing via proxy service after signing up in person. That percentage has stayed steady and it goes a long way toward building Circa’s brand outside the Vegas Strip. The operator currently offers wagering also in Colorado and Iowa and will soon launch in Illinois and Kentucky.
“What are we getting out of it is a really fascinating kind of case study,” said Benson, who pointed out that Circa runs the Million and Survivor contests at a loss when including marketing and contest maintenance costs. “Running these no-rake contests, what we get is brand recognition. People coming into our properties, utilizing Stadium Swim, having a night up at Legacy Club, watching a game in the sportsbook — getting people on property to see what we’re doing.”
In terms of advice for first-time contestants this year, Benson suggested those competing in the survivor pool be “contrarian” at times. Last season’s edition went all the way to the end of the season, as the two winners correctly picked 20 winning teams and split a $6.1 million prize. Benson opined that taking “the biggest chalk every week” isn’t necessarily the best path to a payday.
Having the biggest contests in Las Vegas is a point of pride for Benson and the Circa team, but he figures he will not truly appreciate what he has helped create on the Strip until after he is done overseeing it.
“When I came on board here and helped start Circa Sports,” Benson said, “Derek tasked us with coming up with some cool contests and some different ideas that could help put us on the landscape a little bit more than what we would otherwise, and I think we’ve really been able to achieve that goal. And it’s cool to see how it’s all kind of come full circle now with a guaranteed $14 million.”
