With the proliferation of three-wide sets and spread offenses, there is something of a misconception that the majority of NFL offenses have been putting up video game numbers over the last decade.
But opposing defenses dominated in 2022, as teams averaged 21.9 points per game on the season, representing only the second time in the last decade that the average dipped below 22.0. At DraftKings, the sportsbook’s universal trading team is treating last year’s regression as an anomaly — and offering an outside-the-box wager for the start of the 2023 regular season.
In an offering similar to the “Grand Salami” in hockey, DraftKings is allowing bettors to wager over or under the total number of points to be scored across the league over the course of the season. The Grand Salami enables customers to bet on the total number of NHL goals during any busy night on the ice. DraftKings’ NFL wager follows the same concept, but it applies it to the entire season.
DraftKings has set the total for the number of NFL points this season at 12,495.5, with -110 on both sides.
“DraftKings is always looking for ways to bring our customers more innovative markets such as the season-long wager on the total number of points scored during the NFL regular season,” wrote Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of race and sportsbook operations, in an email to Sports Handle. “While we did not offer this market last season, our trading team is always looking at ways to engage with our millions of customers.”
An ‘outlier’ in 2022
The NFL went to a 17-game schedule in 2021, altering the total games per team for the first time since 1978. NFL teams collectively scored 11,860 points last season, representing the lowest per-team average — 21.7 ppg — since 2017.
DraftKings’ total at 12,495 projects that teams will score roughly a point more per game in 2023-24. With 272 games in the regular season, the total comes out to 45.9 points per game, or 22.9 per team.
“Regarding the line posted for this season’s total points market, we are treating last season as an outlier rather than the new normal, which gives us confidence where we have the market set,” Avello said.
| Year | Total Pts | Avg PPG Per Team | PPG | Games Per Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11,860 | 21.9 | 43.8 | 17 |
| 2021 | 12,502 | 23.0 | 46.0 | 17 |
| 2020 | 12,692 | 24.8 | 49.6 | 16 |
| 2019 | 11,680 | 22.8 | 45.6 | 16 |
| 2018 | 11,952 | 23.3 | 46.6 | 16 |
| 2017 | 11,120 | 21.7 | 43.4 | 16 |
| 2016 | 11,661 | 22.8 | 45.6 | 16 |
| 2015 | 11,680 | 22.8 | 45.6 | 16 |
| 2014 | 11,565 | 22.6 | 45.2 | 16 |
| 2013 | 12,005 | 23.4 | 46.8 | 16 |
Over the last decade, NFL teams have kept scoring in a tight band, ranging from 21.7 points per game in 2017 to 24.8 during the COVID-19 disrupted season of 2020. Interestingly, NFL teams have averaged exactly 22.8 ppg in three seasons over the last decade: 2019, 2015, and 2014. In the last of those seasons, the Packers led the league with 30.4 ppg.
Last season, 13 of the league’s 32 teams averaged fewer than 21 points per game, with five — the Titans, Jets, Texans, Colts, Broncos — averaging fewer than 18.
According to Avello, DraftKings’ models take into account the totals of every game on the season. While DraftKings offers single-game spreads for every week of the 2023-24 campaign, the operator is not currently offering totals for any games beyond Week 1. Of the three top markets that DraftKings models (spread, moneyline, and totals), totals are the most volatile.
According to ESPN’s NFL analytics survey 2022, defensive backs are the most difficult to evaluate quantitatively. This is why when we founded Reel Analytics in 2019, we engineered an in-game athleticism (IGA) score for DBs. Currently, our scoring model has a 75% hit rate. pic.twitter.com/82AQiO74Tw
— Cory Yates (@CoryRAanalytics) September 6, 2023
Through the first seven weeks of last season, NFL games averaged 43.4 points per contest, the lowest to open a season since 2011. In comparison with metrics from 2018, secondaries employed Cover-2 zones (with two deep safeties) approximately 2.9% more often, according to analytics from Yahoo! Sports. Teams also went to a Cover-4 zone, with two corners dropping back into deep coverage, roughly 3.3% more frequently that four years earlier.
In fact, only four teams in 2022 employed press coverage in 25% or more of their sets, led by the Cowboys with a league-high 25.6% figure. The tendencies suggest that teams are dropping their defensive backs into deep zone coverage more often, in effect challenging teams to dink-and-dunk their way downfield. By limiting deep completions with creative schemes, adroit defensive coordinators have countered high-octane attacks, leading to lower scoring throughout the league.
Free-flowing attack in K.C.
At the same time, DraftKings is offering a wager on the team that finishes with the most points league-wide. Led by reigning NFL Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs had the most points in the NFL last season with 496.
The Chiefs have proven to be the “free-flowing scorers” of the league, said Avello, and are deserving favorites (+500) to once again score the most points, followed by the Eagles at +600. The Bengals and Bills are the co-third choice at +850.
Such a scenario would underscore the skill of the bookmakers in nailing the season total. Holders of losing tickets might not be pleased to be reminded of an old adage from former broadcast partners Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth.
When a bizarre occurrence on a game’s final play shifted the outcome of the spread, the announcers sardonically used a phrase to describe the mood of certain gamblers: “Some people are happy, while others are unhappy.”
