FanDuel and DraftKings NFL Week 4 Value Plays
By Mark Dankenbring | Published: September 28, 2017 at 7:00 amContents
Finding solid value plays on salary-based DFS sites is essential when trying to build successful lineups. Each week I’ll discuss players at every position who I think are the best bets to outperform their salary and provide that much-needed value. Each position is followed by salary restrictions for each site. Make sure to take note of salary differences between sites, as a player may make a much better value on one over the other.
NFL Week 4 Daily Fantasy Value Plays at QB, RB, WR, TE, and D/ST for DraftKings and FanDuel
Quarterback
(Restrictions: FanDuel: <=$7,500, DraftKings: <=$6,000))
Trevor Siemian (DEN, FD: $7,500, DK: $5,200) vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland has really struggled to defend the pass in the early going, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs after three weeks. They’ve allowed five passing touchdowns and are just one of five teams without an interception. Siemian will get to face them at home this Sunday, where he’s posted 450 passing yards and six touchdowns (combined) in his first two home games.
Those performances resulted in QB4 and QB3 finishes in Weeks 1 and 2, and he’ll have a great shot to be in the top 10 once again against the Raiders. His pricing is extremely appetizing on DraftKings, where he’s 10 spots lower in terms of QB salary than on FanDuel (QB15 vs. QB25). I like Siemian to have a bounce back week after a tough road game in Buffalo, so make sure to get a piece of him this weekend.
Andy Dalton (CIN, FD: $7,100, DK: $5,800) at Cleveland Browns
The Bengals couldn’t be happier to see the Browns up next on their schedule after an 0-3 start to the season. In their last five matchups, Cincinnati is 5-0 and have outscored the Browns 152-40 in those games. In the past four matchups, Dalton has averaged 235 yards passing and has thrown at least two touchdowns in each game. The Browns have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing quarterbacks thus far and have allowed QBs to complete 70.2% of their passes, fifth-worst in the league. The Red Rifle had a solid game in Green Bay with 212 yards and two TDs under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, and I expect him to build off that performance this week against a weak Cleveland secondary.
Running Back
(Restrictions: FanDuel: <$6,500, DraftKings: <$5,500)
Javorius “Buck” Allen (BAL, FD: $5,500, DK: $4,700) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens will host their division rivals after getting smacked 44-7 by the Jaguars in London. This should be a bounce back game for the Ravens in general, and I like Buck Allen to be the leader of that movement. Allen saw the most targets on the team in Sunday’s blowout loss (6), and hauled in five of them. Those receptions amounted to just 13 yards, but Baltimore’s offense couldn’t get anything going as they managed just 186 total yards. The Steelers will come into town after allowing 216 rushing yards and 12 catches for 73 yards to Chicago running backs in Week 3. Pittsburgh has now allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. Allen should see work in the running and passing game on Sunday, so he’s relatively game-script immune at this point. He’s still too cheap on both sites to be ignored, so use him in your lineups as a salary saver this weekend.
Jacquizz Rodgers (TB, FD: $5,300, DK: $4,400) at New York Giants
It was a terrible outing for Rodgers’ owners in Week 3, as he managed just 15 yards on five carries. This should be a solid chance for Rodgers to get back on track, as the Giants have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing backs thus far. Week 3 was the first time Rodgers has seen under 17 touches as the lead back for Tampa, so his workload should resume in a contest that shouldn’t be as lopsided as their 34-17 loss in Minnesota. Rodgers has never had a large role in the passing game, but his workload on the ground should easily allow him to reach value at such a cheap price on both sites. The Giants have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs to begin the season with most of that damage coming on the ground, so look for Rodgers to have a solid week.
Wide Receiver
(Restrictions: FanDuel: <$6,000, DraftKings: <$5,500)
Sterling Shepard (NYG, FD: $6,100, DK: $5,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Shepard has had a great start to his season, having hauled in 16 passes for 200 yards and two TDs. Tampa Bay allowed Case Keenum to throw for 369 yards and three scores, so I’m optimistic Shepard and the Giants offense can replicate their no-huddle offensive success in Week 3. The Bucs should be without a few centerpieces to their defense once again (Brent Grimes questionable, Lavonte David doubtful, and Gerald McCoy questionable), opening up room for Shepard to operate in the slot. The second-year receiver out of Oklahoma has had plenty of opportunity since OBJ returned, seeing 14 targets through two games and 10 in their most recent effort. With Eli Manning determined to release the ball quickly due to their putrid offensive line, Shepard should see ample opportunities to make plays in space this weekend.
Jaron Brown (ARI, FD: $4,500, DK: $4,000) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The fifth-year man out of Clemson has seen a large uptick in usage with David Johnson and John Brown sidelined for the last two weeks. He led the Cardinals with 11 targets in Week 2 and saw another solid outing with six targets and a touchdown in Week 3. Brown costs the minimum salary on FD and is just $1k above the minimum on DK, so he doesn’t need much production to reach value. I like his chances of reaching value again this week as John Brown is still questionable and didn’t practice all of last week. The 49ers allowed Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods to rack up 12 catches for 214 yards and two TDs last Thursday, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Brown in this matchup.
Kenny Golladay (DET, FD: $5,500, DK: $4,100) at Minnesota Vikings
Surprisingly, the Vikings have given up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers after three weeks. Outside of Xavier Rhodes (who should line up against Marvin Jones), the secondary has been getting torched. Golladay had a big Week 1, catching four of seven targets for 69 yards and two touchdowns, but since has just hauled in three of eight targets for a measly 33 yards. While Golden Tate is still Matthew Stafford’s favorite target, Golladay should see more targets against CB Trae Waynes, who allowed 10 of 10 targets to be caught against him in the first two weeks for 150 yards and a TD. DeSean Jackson caught 4-71-1 against the Vikings this past weekend, but I’m not positive if all of those came against Waynes. Either way, the rookie from Northern Illinois could be in line for a bounce back game at an affordable price on both sites.
Tight End
(Restrictions: FanDuel: <$5,500, DraftKings: <$3,500)
Cameron Brate (TB, FD: $5,300, DK: $3,800) at New York Giants
Brate hasn’t been super involved in the offensive game plan thus far (just seven targets through two games), but he has a great matchup against the Giants and its weak linebacker corps. New York has allowed the most receptions (23) and second-most TDs (3) to opposing tight ends, leading to the third-most points allowed to the position through three weeks. I like Brate a ton this week, as he led tight ends with eight touchdowns in 2016 and caught his first of the season this past week against the Vikings. He should get enough looks to produce against a defense that struggles against tight ends, and although he’s $300 above our DraftKings restrictions, I still like his value this week to exceed his $3,800 price tag.
Jared Cook (OAK, FD: $5,500, DK: $3,400) at Denver Broncos
Cook has become a reliable third weapon for Derek Carr in the passing game. He was the only Raider with a salvageable fantasy line against the Redskins in Week 3, posting a 4-43-1 line in their 27-10 loss. He was tied for the team lead with six targets and is now just one behind Crabtree for second on the team for the season (17 vs. 18). Denver has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends this season, their lone vulnerability on defense through three weeks. Cook still provides solid value in an offense that primarily moves through the passing game, so I’ll continue to fire him up until his role changes or both sites dramatically increase his price.
Defense/Special Teams
(Restrictions: FanDuel: <$4,500, DraftKings: <$3,000)
Detroit Lions (FD: $4,400, DK: $2,700) at Minnesota Vikings
There aren’t many enticing choices for value defenses this week, so I’ll choose to ride the hot hand with Detroit’s defense. They’ve started the season with three consecutive double-digit scoring weeks and are currently the top scoring defense in fantasy. They’ve racked up eight sacks, eight turnovers, and have scored two touchdowns while allowing 21 points per game. Minnesota’s offense has looked good through three weeks, but I’m not scared of Case Keenum if he gets the start once again. He picked apart a dilapidated secondary for the Buccaneers, and Detroit should enter the game completely healthy. While the Vikings should be able to put up some points, I like Detroit’s ability to force some turnovers and sacks, and to potentially end up in the end zone for the third consecutive week.
