FanDuel and DraftKings NFL Week 6 Tournament PlaysBy Mark Dankenbring | Published: October 13, 2017 at 11:15 am
Large field tournaments are what make DFS such an exciting attraction week after week. It takes just one lineup to hit it big and cash in for a five or six figure week (or seven if you’re “lucky” enough to win a millionaire contest). Building GPP lineups can be pretty labor-intensive with so many options throughout the league, and chasing upside can be defeating when your favorite life-changing lineup bombs and you can’t even see the cash line from the depths of your couch.
In order to speed up your lineup building process, I’ll be here weekly with some of my favorite tournament plays for the upcoming NFL weekend. Remember, all we’re chasing is upside in our tournament lineups, but check out more details regarding GPP lineup construction here.
Tournament Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings: NFL Week 6
Uncle Phil has found his groove the past few weeks, totaling 605 yards and five passing touchdowns in Weeks 4 and 5. He’ll head to Oakland and face a defense that is 30th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in sacks this season. Oakland has also not intercepted a single pass this season, so what we worry about with Rivers (sacks and turnovers), the Raiders have really struggled with. The seventh-overall pick Mike Williams will make his NFL debut this weekend, adding another weapon to an already plentiful arsenal for Rivers. In his visit to Oakland last season, he racked up 359 yards and four touchdowns, a performance that could jump-start your GPP lineup if it happens again this Sunday.
The second-year QB out of Stanford comes in as the cheapest option on both sites. I actually like his matchup this week, however, as he’ll face a banged-up Texans defense and will likely be trailing. He’s played well off the bench this season, having completed 26-38 (68.4%) of his passes for 377 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also has shown the propensity to run, as he averaged 26.3 yards rushing last season and posted 30 rushing yards on four attempts in Week 5. Playing Hogan at his depressed price will allow you to fit in several stud RBs and WRs, making him a great tournament option at quarterback.
While Alvin Kamara has gotten most of the hype in this backfield, Ingram’s touches have gone up every game, 11-12-16-18. I think Ingram should see the rushing workload that Adrian Peterson’s exit will leave up for grabs, as Kamara’s most rushing attempts in a game this season is seven. Therefore, I expect Ingram to see at least 20-25 touches this week after out-snapping Kamara 137-91 after four games. With more touches coming his way and likely a lower ownership, Ingram is the Saints’ back I’ll be targeting the most in DFS this weekend.
We usually like targeting talented running backs that are at big favorites at home, and Freeman fits all of those measures. He’s seen 20+ touches in three straight weeks and has out-snapped backup Tevin Coleman 65-30 in the last two. Freeman has also enjoyed great success at home, having scored 14 of 18 total touchdowns in Atlanta since the start of 2016. The Falcons are currently 13-point favorites and have the highest team total of the weekend (30), so I really like Freeman’s chances of breaking out here for 100+ yards from scrimmage and a couple touchdowns.
The first-year Patriot hasn’t done much since his three-touchdown performance in Week 1. He’s seen exactly 12 carries in each of the last three weeks, totaling just 132 yards. However, if there’s a spot for Gillislee to get back on track, this could be it. The Jets are currently 25th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. The Patriots are 9.5-point favorites, and while that lead will likely grow from Tom Brady and the passing game, Gillislee could see a huge workload with the lead. Brady was diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, so Belichick might be more conservative with him than usual, resulting in a boost for Gillislee. It’s a pure punt play and one that could end up with less than five points, but also has a chance to rack up 25+ points at likely miniscule ownership.
We’ve been waiting for a breakout game from Pryor, and while he’s shown glimpses of chemistry with Kirk Cousins, it hasn’t all clicked. I’m hoping to get ahead of the curve by targeting him right after the bye, as his relationship with Cousins should’ve strengthened. Also, boundary receivers have crushed the 49ers this season, as TY Hilton went for 7-177-0, Sammy Watkins 6-106-2, Jaron Brown 8-105-0, and even Robert Woods (6-108-0) posted his best game of the season. Pryor certainly has the ability to exploit this weak secondary, so I’ll have plenty of exposure to him this weekend.
While Fitz is always a great receiver to target when looking for a decent floor, I think he has an extremely high ceiling this week as well. Since the beginning of 2016, he’s averaging 8 catches, 75 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game at home, and already turned in a 13-149-1 game at home in Week 3. His matchup is awfully desirable against CB Robert McClain, who is ranked 111th of 115 qualified corners in coverage rating this season. Brent Grimes is back to cover the outside receivers, so I think Fitz will see the most looks as he possesses the best matchup.
Mohamed Sanu is expected to miss this Sunday’s game, giving a nice bump to Taylor Gabriel and the rest of the Falcons receivers. Gabriel has always been more of a big-play threat, but I think he could be more normally worked into the passing game this weekend. He actually leads the Falcons in red zone targets, so he also has a good chance of notching a touchdown as well. He’s projected to see the most coverage from Byron Maxwell, who is rated 102nd in terms of coverage on PFF for the season. He should see an uptick of snaps and targets with Sanu inactive, so I like Gabriel as a WR2 given his depressed price.
He’s been Kevin Hogan’s favorite target and has emerged as the Browns’ number one receiver with Corey Coleman out (broken hand) and Kenny Britt questionable to play this weekend (injured groin). He’s caught 10 of 17 targets for 135 yards the past two weeks, and Cleveland should be playing from behind as 11.5-point dogs on the road. Louis is the minimum price on FanDuel and close to minimum on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need much work to find value on either site. He should get more than enough looks in Houston, and if he finds his way into the end zone, he’ll be a superb value play that opens up the rest of your lineup.
The rookie out of Iowa was featured in last week’s Milly Maker lineup (congrats Cal Spears), and has another great matchup to attack in DFS this weekend. He’ll face a Redskins defense that has allowed 100+ receiving yards to opposing tight ends in three of their four games, with 42 yards in a touchdown allowed in the other game. Brian Hoyer should look his way plenty after he performed well last week and now has a great matchup, so feel confident firing up Kittle as a GPP play this weekend.
I liked Miller heading into last week as a safety blanket for Mitchell Trubisky in his first career start, and I think that scenario plays out again this week. Miller only caught three passes, but was targeted seven times and turned one of those catches into a touchdown. Chicago will face a tough Ravens defense on the road, but Baltimore is actually 32nd in DVOA against tight ends this season. The Bears lost another WR in Markus Wheaton to a torn groin, leaving Trubisky with even fewer options. Miller should see between 6-10 targets this week, giving him a solid floor with upside against a team that struggles against the position.
Atlanta will welcome the league’s worst offense (just 231.2 total yards per game) in their new palace this Sunday. The Falcons are coming off a bye week and will face a Dolphins team that has just a 17-point total. Miami has averaged just over 10 points per game this season, and Jay Cutler looks as uninspired as ever, so I’m not confident that will get much higher this week. Atlanta should build a big lead (13-point favorites) and force Miami into obvious passing situations, likely resulting in a few sacks and hopefully a couple turnovers out of Cutler. If they’re able to score off one of those turnovers, it could be a huge week for Atlanta’s D.