One of the risks of being a columnist — which I have been for over 20 years, both for daily newspapers and right here — is that sometimes, my takes are … bad.
And when they are, I’m the type of fella who will stand up and take my lumps.
I wrote a bad take the other day: I said Super Bowl betting isn’t as fun as it used to be. Basically, I suggested that the “innocence” or something has been removed now that there’s so much legal sports betting — that because I can bet on anything, anytime, the thrill of placing a wager is gone. I noted that back in the old days, a few box pools and a friendly wager were more than enough.
Bah humbug, fair points, or a matter of perspective?
— Sports Handle (@sports_handle) February 8, 2023
Well, I was wrong, and I now realize why: It’s because I wrote the piece a day too soon.
What I should’ve written was the following: “Betting on the Super Bowl isn’t as fun as it used to be, until about four days before kickoff, and then you start scrolling through all the prop bets and how can you not take blue Gatorade at +400 on BetMGM?”
So yes, I am now all-in on Super Bowl betting. I will be hoping against hope that my Patrick Mahomes-Jerrick McKinnon-Travis Kelce stack in the Mitten 3 Underdog tournament will carry me to the top of the leaderboard, will be building out countless DraftKings Showdown lineups, will be placing longshot parlays like it’s my job (I wish it was my job), and, like most heavy gambling days, I’ll probably wish I was a little more conservative when it’s all said and done.
But just as Thanksgiving is the one day you let yourself eat much more than you should, the Super Bowl is the one day that you let yourself gamble much more than you should. It’s the High Holy Day of the American secular calendar, and for me to sully its good name was sacreligious. Sacsecular? Well, you get the idea.
Anyway, yeah: Bad take. On with the show!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Well, it was only by a half-yard, but I finally cashed a big parlay. Championship week was very, very good to me. I had Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Kelce scoring touchdowns and had Kelce over 77.5 yards receiving. He had 78! Variance, I love thee!
-Kelce had exactly 78 yards in his last game, but
-He had been over this 78-yard prop number in his previous 7 playoff games.
-He also has at least 7 catches in 7 of his L8 playoff games.
— Jim Coventry (@JimCoventryNFL) February 5, 2023
Anyway, that paid out at +1192 at FanDuel.
This week, back to FanDuel, and I’m going to keep rolling with Kelce and Hurts. Kelce, over 79.5 yards receiving, and anytime touchdowns from Kelce, Hurts, and A.J. Brown, who — and I hate saying this — is due. This comes in at +1256, and it’s mine all mine.
The on-paper, no-doubt, three, er, two-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Booked another victory here during championship week, teasing the totals to under 52 in the Eagles-49ers game and over 41 in the Chiefs-Bengals game. Over at Caesars, they let you tease same-game stuff, so why not? Chiefs +7.5 and over 45 at -120. Seems kind of like a lock, doesn’t it? What could go wrong?
This one is looking a little fishy
Listen, nothing is fishy here. The lines are tight. But … if I had to lean one way … I’d say this game has a much better chance of going koo-koo bananas than turning into a slog. That 51-point over/under? It really might fall by the third quarter. I don’t think that would surprise anyone. But if the score was 10-3 in the third quarter? I think we’d all be gobsmacked. Maybe even flabbergasted.
DraftKings plays of the week
Showdown slate, baby. If you want to win this thing, you better find that crazy, low-owned, piece of trash no one is looking for and hope they score a touchdown.
So who might that piece of trash be on DraftKings?
Well, I do like Noah Gray at $1,200. He’s on the field a ton, he gets some looks, and the way to attack the Eagles through the air is in the middle of the field. He’s projected at around 10% ownership. Kenneth Gainwell is projected for a little less ownership, and if you think the Eagles dominate, he should see some second half work. Boston Scott, if you think the Eagles really, really dominate. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, if you think he somehow regains some of his role. It’s tricky down at the bottom.
Bottom line: You can play the best plays, and if they hit, you’re going to split first place with thousands of other people. Get different, you give yourself a fighting chance.
My mortal lock five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
And … this is a tough game to handicap. Nothing would surprise me as to who wins or loses. But assuming Mahomes and Hurts stay healthy, I have a very hard time seeing this game not hitting the over. Besides, the script says so.
Former NFL player arian foster admits NFL is literaly rigged pic.twitter.com/RSfqF1OwKI
— PFT Commenter (@PFTCommenter) January 31, 2023
So yes. That’s my bet. The over, which you can get at 50.5 at PointsBet.