• About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling
This site contains commercial content
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
No Result
View All Result

The Information Game Is Key In NFL Draft Betting Markets

There's a scant selection of wagering options so far, but plenty of movement in who will be picked first

Jeff Edelstein by Jeff Edelstein
February 28, 2023
in Sports
anthony richardson

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The NFL Combine — currently happening in Indianapolis — is a key event for team general managers, scouts, and … sportsbooks and sports bettors.

Yes, the best information game in town is back at America’s sportsbooks this year in advance of the NFL Draft. Expect wild swings in player draft markets depending on what they do at the combine, what mock drafts say between now and April 27, and every manner of tea leaf reading in-between.

β€œI do think with NFL Draft markets, everything stems back to information,” said Spencer Diaz, a FanDuel trader. β€œDaniel Jeremiah drops a mock draft, you check that out. You see he has Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson Jr., that’s going to move the line because that’s someone respected in the space. That’s the information piece.”

Where will the top college prospects land? Find out in @MoveTheSticks' 2023 Mock Draft 2.0! DJ breaks down his picks w/ @LanceZierlein on the latest episode πŸ‘‡

Full episode: https://t.co/iFe1OlRERq pic.twitter.com/MlC1jmNsI4

— NFL Podcasts (@NFL_Podcasts) February 21, 2023

But that’s not all.

Much like in other, more traditional markets, when the big bets come from respected bettors, the line is going to move as well. Key difference here: The sportsbooks will then scramble to find where the information driving those bets is coming from.

β€œAlmost all the time, when we’re analyzing those bets, it’s tied back to information,” Diaz said. β€œIf we see a big bet that might move the line, we’re thinking that the customer is privy to some information that we’re not aware of, something we’re missing.”

Richardson steam

Already this draft season — and even with sportsbooks offering only a tiny fraction of NFL Draft action thus far — there has been a big move.

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson has been steadily moving up in many mock drafts. FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and a handful of other sportsbooks have had β€œWho will be the No. 1 pick?” up for months now. For a good chunk of that time, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has been the favorite, and he remains so. (He’s at -130 at Caesars currently, up to -165 at FanDuel.)

But then Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports dropped a mock last week that had Richardson going first to the Indianapolis Colts via trade with the Chicago Bears. Richardson’s odds to go first had been north of +5000 everywhere; all of a sudden, they weren’t.Β 

Today, he’s as low as +600 at Caesars.

β€œWhen you see a move like Anthony Richardson, you want to react to it right away, because there might be some information there we don’t have,” Diaz said. β€œMoney comes in fast, you have to react.”

But when it comes to this Richardson stuff …

β€œThe Anthony Richardson steam is pretty funny, because it came from a mock that had him going No. 1 overall,” said Connor Allen, the sports betting manager for 4for4 Fantasy Football. β€œIt’s important to remember that early on, these markets just ebb and flow with steam. Nobody knows anything before the combine, and even after the combine it usually takes teams a bit to get themselves sorted. But there will be some great post-combine nuggets about the general idea where teams are headed.”

Of course, those nuggets can sometimes be fool’s gold, and this draft season, the sifting through the information might be more important than ever.

Talent? Paging Talent?

β€œI think one of the themes is there’s a lot of exceptions in this draft, like undersized players or guys that don’t check every box,” Jeremiah said Sunday morning. β€œThere’s a boatload of intriguing players, but there are very few Patrick Surtains, Sauce Gardners, Trevor Lawrences, Joe Burrows. There’s just not the slam-dunk guys that I thought we’ve had over the last few years.”

And things get even trickier at the top, according to ESPN’s Todd McShay, who reported that he would be β€œscared to death” to take Young first.

Update: Alabama QB Bryce Young's real height is 5'10Β½, according to ESPN's Todd McShay.

β€œIf I’m a GM, I’m scared to death of drafting him.” said McShay.https://t.co/IX0Jf0GLXP pic.twitter.com/jcz1ZAlf9G

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) February 27, 2023

Allen, for what it’s worth, doesn’t think Young is a surefire No. 1.

β€œThere is absolutely a chance Bryce Young doesn’t go first overall,” Allen said. β€œHe is a great prospect but is barely six feet tall, and if he weighs 200 pounds at the combine it’ll be because he drank 10 gallons of water before. For better or worse, certain teams will shy away from drafting a QB of smaller stature.”

Anthony Amico, who covers the draft for Establish The Run, takes it a step further.

β€œYoung is an awesome, awesome player. But in reality, he’s the smallest QB we’ve ever seen drafted in the first round — and that isn’t hyperbole,” Amico said. “There are going to be teams who flat out will not select him. I don’t think Bryce will go first unless it’s Houston who trades up. And yes, I do think the Bears will make a trade.”Β 

Adam Schefter agrees with that assessment — at least the Bears part.

Sources: The Bears already have been approached by multiple teams about trading the draft’s No. 1 overall pick, and Chicago is said to be β€œleaning toward” moving the pick. So the No. 1 pick now looks like it’s for sale. pic.twitter.com/2w03L6qP0L

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 27, 2023

This opens up an intriguing situation, as the near-consensus top four quarterbacks in the draft — Young, Richardson, Kentucky’s Will Levis, and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud — all profile differently. The answer to which team trades up will make or break who goes first overall.

All this drama and intrigue, and the first pick will be just one of dozens of available markets to choose from before long.

β€œBy the end of this week, early next week, you’ll start to see some more markets trickle in,” Diaz said. β€œIt’s very information heavy, and the combine gives you a great chance to get more information on the prospects, which in turn makes us more confident in our prices and makes us more confident to increase our offerings to the customers.”

Gentlemen, start your (information) engines.

ShareTweetShare
Jeff Edelstein

Jeff Edelstein

Jeff is a veteran journalist, working as a columnist for The Trentonian newspaper in Trenton, NJ for a number of years. He's also an avid sports bettor and DFS player. He can be reached at [email protected]

Related Posts

Photo: Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY
Features

Dave Portnoy Says, ‘F**k That Guy,’ To Which Bettor And Gambling Twitter Seriously Object

May 16, 2022
(Kirby Lee/USA TODAY)
Sports

As NFL Draft Hits Las Vegas Strip, Sports Handle Staff Suggests Some Bets

April 27, 2022
Load More

Top Stories

taylor mathis

Taylor Mathis Got Sacrificed At The Altar Of Responsible Gambling

March 20, 2023
fanduel baseball wall

Premade Same Game Parlays Are Sucker Bets

March 13, 2023
maginfier-over-small-print

Read The Fine Print: A Proposed Federal Rule Could Change Everything For Indian Gaming

March 6, 2023
roman reigns wwe

Colorado Denies Report Stating That It’s Considering WWE Wagering

March 8, 2023

State Sports Betting Guides

Ohio (U.S. state) flag waving against clear blue sky, close up, isolated with clipping path mask alpha channel transparency, perfect for film, news, composition

Ohio Sports Betting – Where To Play, Bonus Offers And Promo Codes

by Brian Pempus
March 21, 2023

Downtown Detroit at twilight (Shutterstock)

Michigan Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
March 21, 2023

VA captial

Virginia Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonus Offers

by Brett Smiley
January 17, 2023

nj flag

New Jersey Sports Betting — Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
October 20, 2022

pa online sportsbooks

Pennsylvania Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonuses

by Brett Smiley
October 6, 2022

Canada Sports Betting Guides

Canada Sports Betting – Best Sportsbook Apps & Bonus Offers

British Columbia Sports Betting – Legal Update, Available Sportsbooks, and FAQ

Ontario Sports Betting – Legal Status And Where To Play

SportsHandle

  • Analysis
  • Casino
  • Features
  • Horse Racing
  • Industry
  • Legal
  • Legislation
  • Opinion
  • Podcasts
  • Poker
  • Politics
  • Promotions
  • Regulation
  • Sports
  • Uncategorized

Better Collective

This website is owned and operated by Better Collective USA. Trademarks and copyrights referenced on this website are and shall remain the exclusive property of their respective owners and/or licensors. Please be sure to visit the operator’s website(s) to review their terms & conditions. We advise you to read these carefully as they contain important information. Copyright Β© 2023 USBets.com | Better Collective USA
21 Play Responsibly
Gamble Aware West Virginia
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
GameSense

Search Sports Handle

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling

No Result
View All Result
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News

loading

Please wait while you are redirected to the right page...