• About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling
This site contains commercial content
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
    • Guide To ‘Risk-Free’ Bets
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
    • Guide To ‘Risk-Free’ Bets
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
No Result
View All Result

Sorry, Not Every Losing Bet Is A Bad Beat

You can fall short without getting screwed — but you wouldn’t know it listening to some sports gamblers

Eric Raskin by Eric Raskin
January 5, 2023
in Opinion
sad fans

Junfu Han/USA TODAY

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

I’m not sure when the statute of limitations expires on making New Year’s resolutions, but it’s safe to say the first week of January falls within the acceptable window. So, here, dear sports bettor, is a resolution you should consider adding to your 2023 list. Please write this on the chalkboard 50 times:

I will not call every last freaking wager that loses a “bad beat.”

If everything is a bad beat, then nothing is a bad beat. It cheapens the term when you’re in a 50/50 situation, it doesn’t go your way, and you whine about the unfathomably awful beat you took.

The NFL’s Week 15 Monday Night Football game offered a perfect example of misapplications of the “bad beat” designation. USA Today even ran an article about the ending of that Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Rams game with the words “horrible bad beat” in the headline. But this wasn’t a horrible bad beat. This was a close loss that could’ve been a close win. Not should’ve. Merely could’ve.

With two minutes to play, the Packers were up 24-12 and had a third-and-2 at the Rams’ 4. The points total for the game was set at 39.5. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw a quick pass to rookie receiver Christian Watson, but the two weren’t on the same page, Watson never turned around, and the ball landed harmlessly near his right foot.

The Packers could’ve elected to kick a field goal (to bring the points total to 39) on fourth down, but instead handed off to Aaron Jones, who gained a first down. Rodgers then kneeled three times to end the game instead of his team trying to score a meaningless touchdown.

Could it have broken differently, rewarding those who bet the points “over”? Absolutely. Watson could have known the play Rodgers had in mind and turned around and made the catch — and possibly scored (there were still two defenders between him and the end zone). I don’t know what percentage of the time this play results in a touchdown. I do know it’s not high enough to label this a “bad beat.” I would actually estimate it’s below 50%.

But this is typical of the attitude that permeates the gambling world, where many people have a condition that ascribes every loss to rotten luck and every win to masterful skill.

Unreaaaaal bad beat if you had OVER 39.5 if you had UNDER you can thank Christian Watson….Rodgers kneels at the 1 unreal #badbeats pic.twitter.com/GkphD2X6Xn

— Alex Monaco (@Alex__Monaco) December 20, 2022

Setting the bar on bad beats

So what does it take to qualify as a bad beat? To me, it requires something extreme or at least out of the ordinary.

Just about any football game that ends on a desperate lateral play that leads to a defensive touchdown and reverses a wagering outcome would qualify. Also worthy: if the “tuck rule” cost you money; if you were on the wrong side of the Rams-Saints pass interference no-call in 2019; if you had a basketball team -10 and they were up by 12 when the other team heaved a half-court buzzer beater that went in; if you had the winning golfer in a tournament but he got DQ’d for failure to sign his scorecard; if you had a quarterback’s rushing yards “over” prop and he cleared it by two yards, only to lose three yards by kneeling at the end of the game.

A bad beat is not just a loss. It’s a loss in memorable fashion, either because something almost unprecedented happened or because the odds of defeat had become remote before it all unraveled. There needs to at least be some fluke involved or a little weirdness.

This, for example, would be reasonable to call a bad beat: The football team you bet on the moneyline is up 15 with a minute to play and gives up a touchdown and a 2-point conversion, fumbles an onside kick, and gives up another touchdown and 2-point conversion.

This would merely be a close loss: Your football team takes a 6-point lead over the Chiefs with a minute to play, and Patrick Mahomes leads his offense on a game-winning touchdown drive.

One is a longshot that requires a succession of collectively nutty events. The other is simply a coin flip where you called heads and it landed on tails.

Toughen up

There’s something specific to the term “bad beat” that makes it grating. I’ve heard people say they took a “tough beat,” and it came off as harmless — there’s an implication there that the bettor feels slightly wronged and unfortunate, but there’s no outright whining and they acknowledge that it wasn’t too extreme.

“Tough beat” suggests “Man, that sucked, I was close,” whereas “bad beat” is a specific declaration of something indisputably unlucky.

I come from the world of poker, where it’s a little bit easier to tell the bad beats from the not-so-bad beats, because there’s always a percentage chance that can be ascribed to the suck-out in question.

Not that everyone agrees on what the number needs to be to cross the bad beat threshold. But poker players who truly understand what a bad beat is can agree that the opponent hitting a two-outer on the river (about 5%) is a bad beat and that the opponent hitting a flush draw after the flop (about 35-40% depending on other factors) is not.

Another thing everyone of sound mind can agree on: Nobody ever, ever, ever actually wants to hear your bad beat story. They may politely pretend to listen, but deep down, a true gambler doesn’t care about another gambler’s bad beat, because he’s surely suffered through the equivalent or worse — and while you’re talking, all he’s thinking about is his own more brutal examples.

Of course, there is something worse than having to listen to a bad beat story: having to listen to a “bad beat story” that isn’t even about a bad beat. So, next time you’re itching to talk or tweet bemoaning your horrific luck, at least make sure the bemoaning is warranted.

That’s not a bad beat at all, it just lost late. There’s a huge difference

— Ryan Galuszka (@RyanGaluszka) December 24, 2022

ShareTweetShare
Eric Raskin

Eric Raskin

Eric is a veteran writer, editor, and podcaster in the sports and gaming industries. He was the editor-in-chief of the poker magazine All In for nearly a decade, is the author of the book The Moneymaker Effect, and has contributed to such outlets as ESPN.com, Grantland.com, and Playboy. Contact Eric at eraskin@usbets.com.

Related Posts

joe burrow
Opinion

NFL Championship Weekend Is Shaping Up As A Battle Of The Best

January 27, 2023
© Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Promotions

FanDuel Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets for Cowboys at 49ers

January 22, 2023
Load More

Top Stories

patrick mahomes

Mahomes’ Ankle Speculation Twists Line Movement In Chiefs-Bengals Rematch

January 27, 2023
fanatics-grand-opening

Fanatics Sportsbook At FedEx Field Offers Unique Retail Option In Maryland

January 23, 2023
Shutterstock

Missouri Legislators Lament Exodus Of Bettors To Neighboring States

January 27, 2023
rob gronkowski adam vinatieri

Rob Gronkowski Goes Training Montage Route In Latest FanDuel Spot

January 17, 2023

State Sports Betting Guides

Ohio (U.S. state) flag waving against clear blue sky, close up, isolated with clipping path mask alpha channel transparency, perfect for film, news, composition

Ohio Sports Betting – Where To Play, Bonus Offers And Promo Codes

by Brian Pempus
January 25, 2023

Downtown Detroit at twilight (Shutterstock)

Michigan Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
January 27, 2023

VA captial

Virginia Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonus Offers

by Brett Smiley
January 17, 2023

nj flag

New Jersey Sports Betting — Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
October 20, 2022

pa online sportsbooks

Pennsylvania Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonuses

by Brett Smiley
October 6, 2022

Canada Sports Betting Guides

Canada Sports Betting – Best Sportsbook Apps & Bonus Offers

British Columbia Sports Betting – Legal Update, Available Sportsbooks, and FAQ

Ontario Sports Betting – Legal Status And Where To Play

gambling therapy
ncpg
igaming ontario
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/OH/PA/WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).
19+. Please play responsibly. Terms and conditions apply. 
Individuals must be 19 years of age or older to participate in igaming in Ontario. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you, or someone you know, has a gambling problem in Ontario and wants help, please visit ConnexOntario or call their helpline at 1-866-531-2600. Operators on this website operate pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario.

Search Sports Handle

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling

No Result
View All Result
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
    • Guide To ‘Risk-Free’ Bets
  • News

loading

Please wait while you are redirected to the right page...

Please share your location to continue.

Check our help guide for more info.

share your location