It’s always high drama when the NBA draft lottery pops around on the calendar, and Tuesday night was no exception, as the lottery teams were vying for the chance to take the most hyped prospect since LeBron James in Victor Wembanyama.
And it was the San Antonio Spurs who won the rights to choose the French superstar-in-the-making. Of course, the fact that Wembanyama will be the first pick in the draft has been a foregone conclusion for some time. If one is inclined to wager on this outcome at America’s legal sportsbooks, one would be putting down a lot to win a little, as his odds to go No. 1 are an astounding -20000. Yes, bet $200, win $1.
Yawn.
Victor Wembayama – I'm trying to win a ring ASAP. Be ready!."#NBADraftLottery #NBA pic.twitter.com/JpFN4NB294
— BasketballBuzz.ca 🇨🇦🏀🍁 (@basketballbuzz) May 17, 2023
The real action, then, for would-be NBA draft bettors sits with the other picks, and the lottery already shook things up with the No. 2 selection.
With the second selection …
Over at DraftKings, heading into the lottery, Scoot Henderson, the Russell Westbrook-like point guard playing for the G League Ignite, was the favorite at -220.
But after the Charlotte Hornets defied the odds and rose to the No. 2 slot? Henderson’s odds fell to -140, and Brandon Miller of Alabama — who started the day as a +160 underdog — saw his odds go to even after the cards were dealt.
Why? Because the Hornets already have a star point guard in LaMelo Bell.
It’s been 24 hours and already I’ve heard way too much Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson talk.
Lol it’s going to be incredible when the Hornets pass on Scoot and he turns into a 10-time All-Star.
Just go watch the Scoot vs. Wemby.
He wants all the smoke and he’s awesome.
— Micah Adams (@MAdamsStatGuy) May 17, 2023
Of course, the Hornets could easily trade the pick to a point guard-hungry team, in which case Henderson’s odds to go No. 2 would start to resemble Wembanyama’s odds to go No. 1.
As far as darkhorse candidates to go No. 2, DraftKings has priced the electric point guard Amen Thompson of Overtime Elite at +3000 as the next most likely, so that gives some idea of the unlikeliness of both Henderson and Miller dropping past the second pick.
With the third pick … and more
At No. 3, there’s uncertainty surrounding what the Portland Trail Blazers will do with the pick.
Heading into the night, Miller was +110 to go third, Henderson +150, and Thompson was right there at +450.
In the light of morning, not much changed: Miller was at +125 at FanDuel, Henderson at +150, and Thompson at +460. Complicating matters here is Damian Lillard. The veteran point guard wants to win now rather than add a young gun to help in the future.
“I’m just not interested in that. That’s not a secret,” Lillard said in April, according to The Athletic. “I want a chance to go for it.”
So what will the team do? Is a trade on the horizon? Those questions make the No. 3 pick tough to peg.
"Moving up to #3 is a big win for our organization"
General Manager Joe Cronin speaks to media following the 2023 #NBADraftLottery pic.twitter.com/kUd5uUvbnn
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) May 17, 2023
Things get even more up in the air starting at No. 4. Virtually every mock draft out there right now has Wembanyama going first and the Henderson-Miller tango going 2-3 in some combination.
The Houston Rockets hold the fourth pick, and Thompson is the favorite at -125. He was even odds to open Tuesday, and assuming the Rockets hold on to the pick, he will probably end up there, partnering with Jalen Green to form a fearsome future backcourt. Other options? Jarace Walker of Houston could stay home at +450, or Thompson’s twin — Ausar Thompson — could head to Houston, also at +450.
The fifth selection is, as of now, probably the best bang-for-the buck situation with the Detroit Pistons holding the pick. The Thompsons are both +200, but with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey manning the backcourt, it would seem Amen has no prayer to go to Detroit.
Walker’s third on the board at DraftKings to go fifth at +300. But it’s Cam Whitmore of Villanova at +450 that could have value according to some mock drafts. Whitmore is a 6’6” small forward at 230 pounds and is only 18 years old. He’s a finisher, something the Pistons are in short supply of to pair with Cunningham and Ivey.
One other market DraftKings is offering odds on: the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year, where Wembanyama is only a -300 favorite. Henderson is at +300, Miller at +1200, Amen Thompson at +1300, Whitmore at +2000, Auser Thompson at +2200, and Walker at +2500.
