216,600 hours. That’s one way to measure an NFL football season.
Mercifully, Earthβs spinning has now delivered us less one week away from the first game of the 2019 NFL season on Sept. 5.Β Previously I’ve written about why I gamble, primarily on NFL football, but only touched on the 22-week long grind and flexible adherence to a routine preparing for each weekβs slate of games.Β This article is not a βDear Diaryβ entry, but offered to give you a look at a laborious but manageable routine for a football-obsessed working father (a 1-year-old boy), husband and son.
My NFL betting routine consists of intelligence gathering — “nuggets” of information, factoids and observations, material that has predictive value. It’s not necessarily a formula for success, but an outline from which you may glean some useful materials and practices. It’s designed to squeeze the most quality information from a limited amount of time. With that, we’re off.Β
Study, building ‘marriage equity’ key to success
Managing 3 TVs and 8 games with no assistance is hard work. pic.twitter.com/q4pA9X8exp
— Brett Smiley (@brettsmiley) September 17, 2017
First things first: Before the season, my process involves reading the Football Outsiders Almanac and taking notes. Itβs dense and takes a while, but is well worth the effort to collect a massive amount of base knowledge about each NFL team going into the season. More importantly, in the couple of months before the season, I get back into the habit of making the bed every day, and put in quality time with my wife and generally build enough marriage equity to last an entire season with some additional effort throughout.Β
One more preliminary note: Much of my betting attention is devoted to a total of about 15 pick βem and survivor pools, which require an up-front fee and last the season, rather than week-to-week wagers. I said most. Thereβs still plenty happening every Sunday.Β
Monday
– Begin a new Google document entitled βWeek 2 Nuggets,β or whatever week it is of the NFL season. Write or copy/paste all relevant information about the forthcoming week or the week that was into this document, which typically turns into about 15 pages. Each document is a clean slate, a new dossier for review and consideration later in the week.
– Read Football Outsidersβ article βAudibles at the Line,β published Mondays, which is a compilation of their staffβs (often amusing) emails about the games that they’re watching. “We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to tune into (if they can),” the group explains. I find reading these notes is a good way to stay plugged into an average of nearly 800 minutes of football each week.
– Read Bleacher Reportβs Mike Tanierβs column βNFL Digest,β published each Monday morning. Heβs insightful and funny. He focuses on football, much lesser so wagering.Β
– Listen to the βBet the Boardβ podcast (posted Monday late afternoons) hosted by Todd Fuhrman, who has so many jobs and a depth of knowledge about NFL that I canβt imagine he sleeps more than four hours a night.Β Mondayβs edition is a recap of the Sunday action and a Monday Night Football preview. Obviously, next, watch MNF.
– Read βWhat We Learnedβ about Sundayβs games by the NFL.com staff. Quality and useful insights. Donβt just move on to the next week — absorb what happened and why.Β
– Assess injuries, try to guess the coming weekβs lines/spreads before looking. Make any early bets that look spicy and appealing.
Tuesday
– Largely a recuperation and reflection day. Assess possible public overreactions to last week’s games, and preliminarily identify games where overreactions may seep into the line, and watch for any line movement.
Wednesday
– More Football Outsiders reading, this time the column βQuick Reads,β which covers interesting data points, notes and observations from the previous weekβs games. From FO, I also read the columns βClutch Encounters,β βFilm Roomβ and βWord of Mouthβ (offensive line play, a personal favorite positional group). This article is not sponsoredΒ by Football Outsiders.
– Read Rich Hribarβs βWorksheetβ — a weekly piece that contains trove of data, notes, tidbits (nuggets!) regarding player data, performances, team performances, situational stats and so forth. βLord Reebsβ previously wrote for Rotoworld before taking his talents to Sharp Football Analysis (Warren Sharpβs website). Hribar writes from a fantasy perspective somewhat, but nevertheless itβs all relevant for betting.
We're finally closing in on the kickoff of the season. That means there's only a little over a day left on the Early Bird special for fantasy @SharpFootball… The Worksheet, multiple weekly private chats with myself for all things FF related and more… https://t.co/bN7fKp7kla
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) August 26, 2019
Thursday
– Listen to the Thursday edition of the βBet the Board Podcast,β as well as Ross Tuckerβs βFantasy Feastβ (with Evan Silva) and βEven Moneyβ (with Steve Fezzik) podcasts. I try to listen to most of the podcasts covering NFL in this podcast rundown, or as many as possible, but life and obligations inevitably get in the way. My 1-year-old son learned the English language in his first year of life by listening to these podcasts with me during late night and morning feedings.Β
– Watch the “Thursday Night Football” game, ignore people who complain about the low qualify of football on Thursdays, scour Twitter and read articles by local beat writers for insights about the team, players, coaches, etc.
Friday
– Read Evan Silvaβs βMatchupsβ column. Like Hribar, Silva used to write for Rotoworld before undertaking a new venture, launching a new football-dedicated (subscription) website βEstablish The Runβ with Adam Levitan. They built a stable that produces great articles and podcasts. Levitan and Silva make an excellent pair and itβs a recommended subscription.Β
– Check ESPN Chalk for the latest information — and nuggets!
– Read NFL.comβs Kevin Patraβs βCheat Sheetβ — loaded with the latest information about injuries, personnel, weather conditions and much more.Β
– Watch more NFL Network. I’m a big fan of Good Morning Football.Β Listen to VSiN.
If @ccarson_32 is the 24th RB off the board, are we calling it a #StretchOrSteal?
Letβs see what @heykayadams is thinking.@NFLFantasy | #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/x7O1dBPbfi
— GMFB (@gmfb) August 29, 2019
– Additional recommended bookmarks:
- – https://rotogrinders.com/sports-bettingΒ
- – https://twitter.com/sports_handle/lists/sportsbettingbyshΒ
- – https://walterfootball.com/nflpowerrankings.phpΒ
- – https://www.theringer.com/nflΒ
- – https://www.si.com/author/andy-benoitΒ
- – https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/ (not always the sharpest bunch; worth reading for popular sentiment)Β
- – http://nflsavant.com/
- – https://thepowerrank.com/
Saturday
– Take care of any/all household, marital and familial responsibilities. I made a choice a while ago that I would fanatically follow NFL and to a much lesser extent, college football. I socialize on Saturdays, sometimes miss big games, and then Sunday is MY day. We all make choices and sacrifices.Β
– At night, review my βNuggetsβ document. Take notes upon notes.Β
Sunday
– Exercise in the morning, preemptively burning calories in 60-calorie increments (buffalo wings), and run any errands before spending a solid 13 hours on my behind in front of my 3-TV setup, laptop on thighs, mobile phone (second, or fifth?) screen in hand, Giants jersey on, cold beer nearby. Life is good.Β
– Active Football Zone with NFL Sunday Ticket and absorb as much football as possible — the Giants game in its entirety and otherwise scanning games (and the Red Zone channel), focusing on those with significant wagers on them and the most fantasy football implications, without discriminating against bad football games because bad football often produces good betting opportunities.Β
– For the Sunday Night Football game, watch second half in bed and after the game concludes, tabulate outcome of wagers, update spreadsheet tracking NFL pools, review fantasy match-ups, contemplate the meaning of life, start the next ‘Nuggets’ document, put on NFL Network, kiss my wife, and drift away to asleep.