One of my football betting rules is “when in doubt, look at the coaching staff.” Basically, I ask myself if the coaching staff is forward-thinking, are they using advanced analytics, do they understand the concept of two-point conversions and going for it on fourth down, or … do they run quarterback sneaks on third and nine.
It’s third and nine from deep in our own territory. Let’s call a quarterback sneak!
Giants fans should go home after that.— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) January 9, 2022
I’m not going to pretend my rule is foolproof or that it’s even effective, but take a look at the eight teams left in the playoffs and who their head coaches are. They are all clearly forward-thinking men. Even the old ones, like Andy Reid and Bruce Arians, know how to run a team in 2021. Then there are the young guns, like Zac Taylor, Sean McDermott, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and Matt LaFleur. Lastly, you’ve got Mike Vrabel, who looks like he should be a dinosaur, but clearly has a magic formula to get the most out of his team.
All in all, it makes betting this week’s slate of divisional round games a tough nut to crack. I expect four chess games, in short. A lot of gamesmanship. A battle of wits, if you will.
And after last week’s genuinely terrible football games, I, for one, am looking forward to the action. Conference semifinal week is always the best week. (And yes, last week’s games were not good. At all. Four blowouts and the two close games weren’t exactly Alcoa Fantastic Finishes, you know?)
And before I date myself further – what’s next, You Make The Call? – let’s get on to this week’s four-pack of football.
The +1000 parlay of the week
Sheesh, I came dangerously close to nailing this last week. Had the Chiefs -12.5, the Bucs -8.5, the over in the Chiefs-Bills game, and … the over in the Cowboys-49ers game.
This week? I mean, what the hell. Four games, I’ll just pick my picks, smash ‘em together, and presto, we got ourselves a parlay, baby! Over to DraftKings, and give me the Bengals +3.5, the Packers -6, the Rams outright, and the Bills outright. That’s +1655, and I’m going for it.
Rationale? No one knows what we’re getting with the Titans, so I’ll take the 3.5 points and cross my fingers. The Packers, at home, at night, on the frozen tundra — right now, lows for Saturday night are forecast for 1 degree.
Anyway, the I’ll buy into the Rams peaking at the right time. As for the Bills and Chiefs? Coin flip, I think, so give me the moneyline ‘dogs.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Cowboys-49ers burned me here as well, not even able to go over the 44.5 teased number. Boo.
One more time for the road here: How about Packers pick’em, Rams +9, and over 48.5 in the Chiefs-Bills game for +160 at Caesars. Seems reasonable, no?
DraftKings DFS play(s) of the week
Had a big hit myself last week, winning $500 in the $3 Play Action on DraftKings. So that was nice.
This week? Again, short slates are tough, but I think a good plan of attack — if you’re playing the four-game slate — is to load up on Chiefs and Bills players. While that may be obvious — it has the highest over/under — I still think the fact the game isn’t until Sunday night will keep people off of it more than they should be. Couple that with the fact the best plays are expensive, and there’s a real recipe for low ownership. Honestly, use some of the lesser plays and you can completely game stack this thing.
Underdog I like best to win outright
Gotta be the Rams, right? You have to figure they will be able to move the ball through the air, and if the Rams can generate pressure on Brady — yeah, I like the Rams.
Player props I like
There was literally nothing I liked last week. This week, it’s a different story (all on DraftKings).
For starters, Jimmy Garoppolo under 244.5 yards passing at -115. This game might be slow, it’s 1 degree out, and Garoppolo has 43 different injuries.
I also like Ryan Tannehill over 238.5 yards at -115, C.J. Uzomah under 3.5 receptions at -120, and Sony Michel (who I think will keep goal-line duties) anytime TD at +230
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Had the Chiefs last week as the best bet. Also picked five of the six games outright, only missing on Dallas. So that’s nice.
This week, gimme the Pack -6.
As for the officially official predictions:
Bengals 24, Titans 23
Packers 28, 49ers 14
Rams 34, Bucs 28
Bills 35, Chiefs 31
