Well those games were pretty good last week, eh?
And that brings us to what is generally considered the best weekend on the NFL calendar: the divisional round. Man, just thinking about this round of playoffs brings me back to my childhood. This was the best weekend of the year. Now I feel like I need a Pat Summerall and John Madden interlude.
There. I feel better now.
But yes. The divisional round is upon us and … now I need some Brent Musburger. Be right back.
You are looking live! Love it. Man, I miss the 1980s. A more innocent time, don’t you think? Maybe I should ask ChatGPT to write a short poem …
The 80s were rad, a time of fun,
A decade of neon, hair, and gum.
Movies, music, and style so great,
A time we’ll never forget, our fate.
Thank you, ChatGPT!
OK, I’m 140 words into this thing and have written nothing of substance. The reason is because I’m not sure I have much to add about this weekend’s slate of games, outside of … well, outside of I think all the favorites are going to win. Sportsbooks beware. I know that’s not exactly what anyone came here to read, but …
Eagles-Giants: Listen, the Giants story is wonderful, but they have — literally — the worst rushing defense in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. And the first time these two teams met — meaning, the only time the Giants had anything to play for and Jalen Hurts wasn’t coming back from a sprained shoulder with the Eagles intending to do just enough to win — the Birds ran for 253 yards.
Cowboys-49ers: This shapes up as the most competitive game on the slate, but the 49ers are clicking on all cylinders. And on all spark plugs. And on all other items found underneath the hood of a car. And while the Cowboys can keep up, I just have a hard time seeing the 49ers lose — unless Brock Purdy goes from imitating Tom Brady circa 2001 to imitating Tom Brady circa this past Monday night.
What is Tom Brady doing? pic.twitter.com/mIj1jEiWwv
— Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz (@LeBatardShow) January 17, 2023
Bills-Bengals: I love the Bengals. I’m rooting for the Bengals. The Bengals offensive line this week includes my deceased Aunt Gertie.
The Bengals projected offensive line (per @PFF) against the Bills this week without La'el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Jonah Williams. pic.twitter.com/pSOhUFKEOO
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) January 18, 2023
And lastly …
Chiefs-Jaguars: The Chiefs are playing Ring Around the Rosie on the football field just for kicks. Also: Mahomes is going to pick apart the Jaguars pass “defense.”
Best Huddle and Play of the year from the Chiefs? pic.twitter.com/7M9BF2P2MH
— Zach Masters (@M0untainMan28) January 7, 2023
All right. On to the stupid bets I’m about to make.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Last week, I bet the following parlay: Keenan Allen over 6.5 receptions at -130, Chris Godwin over 7.5 receptions at +115, Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown at -150, and Saquon Barkley over 99.5 rushing and receiving yards at -115. The parlay was priced at +1085.
It lost. By one-half of a Keenan Allen reception.
Good times. (Seriously: I lead the league in near-misses this year. I’m the Brett Maher of parlays.)
Brett Maher. Record breaker. pic.twitter.com/UUY0YKlwvL
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 17, 2023
This week, I’ll dip my toes back into the player props pool on DraftKings and roll with Travis Kelce over 79.5 receiving yards at -115, Hurts over 50.5 rushing yards at -120, Bills over 3.5 touchdowns at +140, and McCaffrey anytime TD at -140, for a +1310 adventure.
Rationale: You have to think Kelce will be, as usual, the focal point of the offense; Hurts may hit his over on the first drive; the Bills offense is good for three tuddies easy and let’s throw in a defensive one for good measure; and McCaffrey always scores a touchdown. Looking forward to everything hitting and Kelce finishing with 79 yards.
The on-paper, no doubt, three team teaser that’s bound to lose
Last week’s teaser lost with the Vikings — and honestly, everything else I bet below on the Vikings lost, so let’s not relitigate, we’re covering it here, shut up —and so onward and upward at Caesars, where I’m going with the Chiefs -2.5, the Eagles -1.5, and the Bills getting a half-point. As I said earlier, I like all the favorites, but I suppose if I had to rank ‘em, the 49ers would be my least favorite favorite, so there ya go.
This one is looking a little fishy
The Bills should win by double digits. I’m putting a lot of faith in the notion that the Bengals’ offensive line play — not their strong suit to begin with — is going to melt in the Buffalo cold and I know that metaphor didn’t work, so, for the second time in as many paragraphs, kindly shut up.
DraftKings plays of the week
Playoff DFS is not my strong suit. Never has been. I like bigger slates. But … I’ll be playing, and at first blush, I want to enter small single-entry tournaments and stack up the Chiefs and Eagles as much as I can. The pricing works, and I expect both offenses to put on a show.
My mortal lock five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Parlay the four favorites on the moneyline, collect +240 odds, and thank ol’ Diamond Jeff later.