With one week to go until the NFL Draft, we are starting to circle peak mania.
If the sportsbooks are to be believed, Bryce Young will be selected with the No. 1 overall pick April 27 by the Carolina Panthers. He’s currently -1200 at Caesars and FanDuel, -1400 at DraftKings.
Wasn’t too long ago CJ Stroud was the overwhelming favorite to go first, but then Adam Schefter — and others — said the Panthers were sold on Young, and that he would be the pick.
And when a plugged-in ESPN insider makes a call like that, they can’t be wrong, right?
Well …
Remember last year’s NBA Draft? ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski dropped an early-morning Woj bomb, saying Jabari Smith was going to be the first pick. His odds immediately dropped to -10000.
But with five minutes to go before the draft, Woj dropped another bomb: He was wrong, and Paolo Banchero was going to be No. 1.
In short: {Insert shrugging shoulders emoji}
Or is it CJ?
Is it possible the Panthers trade out of the top pick? Perhaps there’s another quarterback they like?
My favorite draft bet right now is Will Levis to Carolina at 50-1
Seeing multiple rumblings from CAR beat reporters that he could be their guy
Always possible they shock us and draft him #1 but more likely they would trade down to 2 or even lower and still be able to get him
— Justin Herzig (@JustinHerzig) April 19, 2023
Or perhaps the original reports were correct, and Stroud is the Panthers’ man. He’s +800 at FanDuel to go first.
“I would say if there is a chance Stroud goes number one, his visit Tuesday will be his last chance to impress the team with anything he hasn’t done already,” said Connor Allen, the sports betting manager for 4for4 Fantasy Football. “With that being said, it’s been a long time since we have heard anyone publicly say it’ll be someone other than Young.”
So let’s pencil Young to the Panthers. On the clock with the second pick are the Houston Texans, who are rumored to love Young, but not be enamored with Stroud.
As a result, Stroud is the fourth favorite to go at No. 2, up at +275 on DraftKings.
The favorite? Edge rusher Will Anderson, at +150. Sandwiched in-between are quarterback Will Levis and edge rusher Tyree Wilson at +250.
In short: {Insert shrugging shoulders emoji, again}
At No. 3, get ready to insert more emojis, as the Cardinals are widely expected to dish the pick, probably to a quarterback-needy team, which is why Stroud is the favorite to go third, to someone, at +125.
Texans taking C.J. Stroud at 2nd overall would make the owner happy, but it also tanks the Cardinals' trade compensation at 3rd overall…
Enough to where DeMeco Ryans can more efficiently trade up from 12 to draft his top EDGE rusher pic.twitter.com/SeMCCCRzU4
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) April 19, 2023
Of course, there’s also the potential for a blockbuster Lamar Jackson trade (or a less blockbuster-y Trey Lance trade) that could very easily upset the draft cart.
Clearly, there are a lot of moving pieces and virtually zero guarantees as we get closer to draft day.
A few nuggets …
At DraftKings, the odds are -115 either way on over/under 4.5 quarterbacks chosen in the first round.
Know this: The over on this market opened at +550 weeks ago, with four quarterbacks — Young, Stroud, Levis, and Richardson — all expected to be first round picks. The would-be fifth? Hendon Hooker, who is coming off a torn ACL, but who has somewhat improbably gained steam as the draft season has worn on.
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly believe Hendon Hooker “will not” make it past the 29th overall pick.
The Commanders reportedly “really like” the Volunteers QB as well.
If Hooker is to go in the first round, he would be the second oldest QB (25) drafted in the first round in the… pic.twitter.com/hPspQ0f7W6
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) April 17, 2023
But Allen isn’t sold.
“I’m skeptical about Hooker,” Allen said. “He was really good last season prior to his injury, but he will be 25 when he enters the league, coming off a torn ACL, and played in a system that hasn’t translated to the NFL well. There are clearly some in the media carrying water for him, and he could go in the first round, but it’s really tough to see many teams in the 20-31 range who would want him outside of the Vikings.
“The saying about a team trading into the back half of the first round has largely proved incorrect the past few years. That being said, if you want to bet U4.5 QBs, you will probably get a number close to even, with how much hype there is about Hooker.”
Outside of the quarterback question, the skill position player who is garnering the most interest is easily running back Bijan Robinson, who many analysts say is the best running back to come out of college since Saquon Barkley.
2023 NFL Draft highlights: RB, Bijan Robinson@TexasFootball | @MillerLite
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) April 18, 2023
As to where he’s going to land?
“I would guess Bijan will be selected by the Falcons, Washington, or Dallas,” Allen said, with those corresponding odds at +200, +1000, and +500.
As for everything else? A lot of moving parts, plenty of mock drafts still to drop, and a few Schefter bombs can be expected. It’s going to be a wild week.
