Let me tell you what I am: I am a man who has bet on the NFL, in one form or another, since 1986.
I was a freshman in high school, a complete sports nut, had been playing Strat-O-Matic baseball, football, basketball, and hockey like it was my job. I played head-to-head with friends and I also played a solitaire version. (I should’ve stuck with it. I’d be a GM today.)
I joined my first fantasy football league that year, and that league is still going. I made my first bets that year. By junior year, I was booking bets.
And while my betting has ebbed and flowed over the years, it’s been on full flow since 2015.
Even though I can’t figure out how to use a spreadsheet, I do feel — and my bankroll will support the feeling — that I know a thing or two about betting on football. Let’s just chalk it up to Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000-hour rule.
Now, let me tell you what I’m not: An NFL sports betting expert.
I will repeat: I am not an NFL betting expert. I am not positioning myself as one, I am not telling you to listen to me — ever — when I go through what I go through in the paragraphs below. This is supposed to be fun. Profit is a bonus. My “lock of the week” is … not a lock. Understand?
But I will be keeping track right here of my bets, may add one or two as the weekend wears on, and I’m hoping I go undefeated in this space and then I will get business cards made up with “NFL BETTING EXPERT” emblazoned on them.
Until then … well, let’s start with our weekly giant stupid parlay, eh? I told you this is supposed to be for fun.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
I’m including a player prop (or two) for the first time in my +1000 or more parlay. Alert the media!
Here we go, and we’ll book this at DraftKings: Alexander Mattison over 55.5 rushing yards, Deshaun Watson over 230.5 passing yards, the Commanders moneyline over the Cardinals, the Chargers moneyline over the Dolphins, and my Monday night hammer, the Giants moneyline over the Cowboys for my upset special. The whole shebang comes in at +1555, which is an objectively sexy number.
Rationale? Mattison is the bellcow, the Vikings are favored, and the number should be in the 70s. Watson is not being paid to hand the ball off, and if the Bengals jump out to a lead, the Browns QB should flirt with 300 yards. The Cardinals suck. The Chargers are awesome. And Brian Daboll is about 3.6 times smarter than Mike McCarthy (and also may have a better team).
The on-paper no-doubt three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
This is my least favorite part of this column. I always lose. Sigh. Anyway, over to Caesars, where, for +160, I’m taking the Commanders giving a point to the Cards, the Vikings getting a half-point against the Bucs, and the Seahawks getting a half-point against the Rams.
Yes. Three favored home teams. Teased basically to pick ‘ems. What could go wrong?
Favorite that makes me nervous
It’s the Saints giving 3 points at home against the Titans. Basically, are we sure the Saints are any good? And giving Mike Vrabel 3 points feels … foolish. And despite an offensive line that can charitably be described as “really freaking terrible,” are we sure we want to bet against Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, and young guns Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo? I don’t. Staying far away here.
Player props I like
Alexander Mattison, over 54.5 yards at -110 at bet365. I know the Bucs have a good run defense, but the Vikings are home, big favorites, and as I wrote in the parlay section, this number is about 20 yards too low.
Khalil Herbert, over 61.5 rushing and receiving yards at -115 at DraftKings: While not the bellcow like Mattison is, Herbert should get the majority of the carries for the Bears, and he has some explosive tendencies. Too low a number here.
Tony Pollard, over 2.5 receptions at -125 at DraftKings: Pollard should basically never leave the field — assuming the Cowboys know what they’re doing. As such, I like his chances of catching a few balls out of the backfield.
Sunday morning add: Brian Robinson, anytime touchdown, +155 at DraftKings.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I mean, there wasn’t one. But trust me: You’ll be the first to know.
DraftKings DFS play(s) of the week
Week 1 of DFS is my least favorite, mostly because the salaries are released too soon. It’s generally too soft. But having said that, I am going back to the well on Mattison. I’m also going to build a few Lamar Jackson stacks, and a few Justin-Fields-to-D.J.-Moore stacks.
My mortal lock, five-star, only for my best customers, can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week* (*not guaranteed)
Vikings giving 5.5 points to the Baker Mayfield Bucs. Come on. Easy money.
