Deep in the recesses of multiverse, where quantum theory is fact and where everything that can ever occur never happens and where nothing that could never occur always happens, we join our fearless leader and his sidekick.
RALPH: Yeah, boss, we’ve got a problem in the Earth2021A simulation.
FRANK, THE GODLIKE MAVEN OF THE MULTIVERSE: Whatcha got, Ralph? I know this one has been all futzy for the last few years. Still trying to piece together how 10101010001001001trump10101010001 won the United States presidential election. Also having a helluva time figuring out how pumpkin spice became a thing. So yeah. A lot of weirdness. I’m almost afraid to ask what happened now.
RALPH: It’s not good.
FRANK: Ralph, listen, I’ve got infinite simulations running out there, there’s infinite issues, there’s bound to be — what’s that phrase I’ve seen? A glock in the muffin? … There’s always going to be glocks in the muffins.
RALPH: I think you mean glitch in the matrix.
FRANK: I think I would know, Ralph. It’s definitely glock in the muffin. Anyway, tell me what’s going on.
RALPH: The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Buffalo Bills 9-6.
FRANK: (His nothing head hits his nothing desk.) OK, fine, it could happen, you run things out infinite ways, there’s bound to be infinite results. I can live with this.
RALPH: It gets worse. It seems … Josh Allen sacked Josh Allen.
HISTORY!
🚨 Josh Allen sacked Josh Allen 🚨
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/ehMuzocBAT
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 7, 2021
FRANK: Oh my. That’s it. All the sims in Earth2021 know the jig is up. They’re all Elon Musk now. Pull out the cartridge, blow on it, start the whole thing over.
(Earth2021A zaps out of existence, replaced by Earth2021B, which features Jennifer Lopez as Queen Angel Ra, so we’re already ahead of the game.)
jennifer lopez photographed by tony duran, 1999 pic.twitter.com/g31wQYXeXF
— 2000s (@gwendalupe) November 10, 2021
Yeah, Week 9 was quite a week in the NFL. Not only did the Bills crash the simulation, but the Cowboys got demolished by the Broncos at JerryWorld, and overall on Sunday, underdogs went 9-3 against the spread — and won seven games outright. (For the record, things continued silly Thursday night with the Dolphins smashing the Ravens.)
And if it feels like these past few seasons are nuttier than past seasons, that’s because they have been.
According to a David Purdum piece for ESPN, from 1996 through 2017, zero teams that were favored by 15 or more points lost outright. With the Bills’ debacle this past week, it’s now happened each of the last four seasons at least once.
Bottom line? There’s a glock in the muffin, and it’s called — I guess — parity. Any given Sunday and all. That’s why we play the games. And so on and so forth. But boy howdy, it sure does make this whole handicapping thing a little harder than it should be.
The Buffalo Bills not only lost, they didn’t score a touchdown. Unreal, and I think I might mean that literally.
If you’ll excuse me, I need to reboot the system.
We're into the double digits on the #NFL calendar, and @jeffedelstein's bag of schtick is into the singles.
Here goes!
Column here ➡️🔗https://t.co/HfNC8tCNi5 #NFLWeek10 #DFS #Muppets pic.twitter.com/I0aMCyz7EN
— Sports Handle (@sports_handle) November 12, 2021
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
We were a profitable 1-7 heading into last week, and now … we’re a profitable 1-8. Hit on the Giants and the over in the Saints-Falcons tilt, but the Panthers got trucked by the Patriots and so there goes that.
This week?
Booked this Thursday morning at DraftKings: the Bills -11 over the Jets at -110, the Chargers -3 over the Vikings at -115, over 44 in the Saints/Titans game at -110, and the Seahawks outright over the Packers at +140, for a grand total of +1535.
Behold thy rationale: The Bills have to be angry. I still insist the Chargers are the best team in the AFC. The Titans and Saints are both too explosive for that number. And why can’t the meh Seahawks beat the meh Packers? I realize that last bit ain’t exactly what one might call a deep dive into the statistical ether, but it does kind of feel right.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Down to 3-6 on the no-doubt teaser, as last week’s bit was downright laughable, with the Bills giving 8.5 to the Jags and the Rams giving 1.5 to the Titans as my cornerstones.
This week, changing things up and booking my teaser at Caesars, which offers +160 standard teaser odds (always line shop, kiddos).
And here we go: Bills giving 6 to the Jets, Chargers getting 3 against the Vikings, and Colts giving 4.5 to the Jags at home. Come on, right? How does this lose? (It will lose. These teasers are killing me.)
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I have reached the Stuart Smalley portion of the program with my DFS play this year. I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, can I at least min-cash my way to a profitable week? Way too many snowflakes in my life right now.
DraftKings DFS play(s) of the week
All righty, let’s just forget the fact I hyped Jordan Love last week — we could use the Men In Black mind eraser thing here, if that’s OK — and move on to this week.
At the time of this writing, it looks like there’s going to be a ton of chalky value.
Tyler Johnson, if Chris Godwin misses. D’Ernest Johnson, if Nick Chubb misses. James Conner was only priced up to $6.3K. Diontae Johnson might catch 20 balls at $6.8K. Dak Prescott is too cheap at $6.9K. Mike Evans is too cheap at $6.9K.
I mean, that’s six very obvious plays. Cash game lineups are gonna be fun, eh?
But these guys are also going to be over-owned in tournaments, so this is shaping up as one of those spend-up-to-be-contrarian type of weeks.
And for that, I look to three running backs who, in a normal week, would be on the ol’ Team Jam ‘Em In.
They are Najee Harris at home against the Lions for $7.5K, Jonathan Taylor at home against the Jags for $8.1K, and our old pal Christian McCaffrey in Arizona for $8.4K.
Harris and Taylor are obvious, but might be underowned due to Johnson and Connor. As for McCaffrey? I don’t expect anyone to play him. His matchup isn’t as good compared to Taylor and Harris, he’s on the road, he’s got P.J. Walker quarterbacking, he’s only a week back from injury. And he’s also the most likely to end the week with 150 combined yards, eight catches, and three touchdowns.
Trap game of the week
This really should be called the “underdog is getting too many points game of the week,” but whatever. Won again last week, taking the Bears and the points, bringing my season record to 6-3. This week is tough, as there’s not a single game that stands out, but I’ll go with the Seahawks getting — at the time of this writing — 3.5 points in Green Bay. This line clearly assumes Aaron Rodgers is back in, so we’ll see if it holds. As to my reasoning? I’m a broken record here: These are two teams that want to control the ball and control the clock, and as such, I think it’s likely the game doesn’t get out of hand. And in a scenario like that, I want the points, especially if it’s more than a field goal.
Player props I like
Managed to go 2-1 last week, so that’s nice. Let’s go with another trio this week, over at DraftKings: Give me Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions at -115, give me Mike Williams over 60.5 yards receiving at -115, give me Javonte Williams over 48.5 rushing yards at -115, give me Dalvin Cook over 18.5 carries at -115. And if you’re saying, “Hey dopey, a trio is three, not four,” my answer is this: The simulation might still be broken. Numbers are meaningless.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
All righty, things got back on track last week with the over 42 getting crushed in the Saints/Falcons game, so we’re back in profit city at 5-4. This week? I am going to assume the glitch in the matrix has been fixed. Give me an undoubtedly angry Buffalo Bills to cover 11 points over the New York Jets. This could be one of those 52-7 type scenarios. And if the Jets win? I guess that’s it. We’re all Neo.
