It’s Thanksgiving week, which means we get two distinct slates of NFL football, which means I’m going to give my tens of fans two distinct looks at the week ahead in an effort to topple the sportsbooks. #YouAreWelcome.
Let’s start with the Turkey Day slate, shall we?
Can we parlay something here?
Of course we can! They don’t call me Parlay Jeff for nuthin’! (Editor’s note: No one has ever called him “Parlay Jeff.” If anything, we’ve called him “the schmuck who keeps betting longshot parlays.”) So here’s what we’re going to do: We’re going to go to BetMGM and bet the three games on the moneyline — the Bills, Cowboys, and Patriots at +236. I fail to see how the Bills or Cowboys lose, which leads us to the Vikings-Patriots game. Honestly, I just think the Patriots’ defense is going to dominate, and that will be that.
It must SUCK to run the football into a hole that gets filled by Kyle Dugger with a head of steam. 🔊 🔊 pic.twitter.com/t9viqAamqN
— Michael Hurley (@michaelFhurley) November 21, 2022
Can we tease something here?
Well, we could, but if you’re going to do it, I’d go for an extra point over the standard six to get us to the Bills -2.5, the Cowboys -2, and the Patriots +9. At Caesars, this takes us down to +130 instead of +160, but gets us on the right side of the dreaded three-point mark on Buffalo and Dallas.
Anything fishy here?
Honestly, not really. Moving on.
Got some DFS thoughts?
I do, thanks for asking. I’m going to hammer the Patriots’ backfield in a single-entry contest.
Playing both Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris will A) make your lineup very different and B) potentially provide a massive score. Look at what Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliot did to the Vikings last week – they did 57.6 fantasy points. Now, do I expect the Patriots to be able to dominate the Vikings like Dallas did? I don’t, but if they do … double late-night hammer, and pair it with the Patriots’ defense, and you’ll thank me in the morning.
Rhamondre Stevenson on the Patriots offense pic.twitter.com/t8NUGiFC2g
— Boston Diehards (@Boston_Diehards) November 21, 2022
Feels like the Giants’ carriage has turned into a pumpkin. Dallas giving the 9.5 points.
Moving on …
Let’s digest our Thanksgiving appetizer and get right into the main course, shall we?
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Well, the bad news is we lost last week, and now we’re 0-11 on the year.
The worse news? I came so darn close to hitting the +2383 parlay I wrote about here, which would’ve promised us a positive season. I had the over 41.5 in the Browns/Bills game, which stood because we bet this on DraftKings. I had over 45 in Giants/Lions. I had the Commanders giving 3 points in Houston and the Cowboys giving 1.5 points in Minnesota. But it was the Chiefs, who won but didn’t cover against the Chargers, who killed me. Killed us. Killed our hopes and dreams. (Though I did cash out, mostly due to a terrible DFS week. So maybe not “killed.” I hyperbolize.)
Alas, onward and (hopefully) upward. On to this week’s offering, which is over at DraftKings, and it’s a home favorite onslaught at +1228: The Dolphins giving 13.5 to the Texans, the Commanders giving 4.5 to the Falcons, the Seahawks giving 3.5 to the Raiders, and the 49ers giving 9.5 to the Saints. Rationale? These just seem like good bets to me individually, so let’s mash them together.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Well hallelujah everyone, finally cashed here, up to 3-8, had the Chiefs getting a point (phew), and over in the Giants game and the over in the Bills game. This week, let’s head back to Caesars for a +160 bet, which includes three of the games above: the Seahawks getting 2.5 points, the Commanders getting 1.5 points, and the Dolphins giving 7.5 points, which I hate, but I fail to see how the Dolphins don’t win by three scores.
This is looking a little fishy to me
Fell to 4-7 here by backing the Cardinals, actually writing “will Kyler Murray play, not sure it matters.” Well, maybe it didn’t matter, but they got blown off the field Monday night. This week, though, I’m taking a hard look at the Packers-Eagles Monday night game. Yes, I’ve written off Aaron Rodgers in this space a few times this year, but I dunno … something about this game — and the 7-point spread — feels off to me.
Everyone’s talking about how Aaron Jones hit the Marshawn Lynch last night, but no love for Aaron Rodgers hitting the Marge Simpson? pic.twitter.com/nRHC5fvwpE
— PackersHistory.com (@PackersHistory1) November 14, 2022
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I’m still not ready to discuss my DFS day this past Sunday. Please respect my privacy at this time.
DraftKings play(s) of the week
I’m scared. Why? Because it all looks too obvious to me. Antonio Gibson, Kenneth Walker, Jeff Wilson, Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Nico Collins, Mahomes + Kelce, insert defense, win all the money.
It’s not that easy, right? Well … we’ll see.
My mortal lock, five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
All right, the Bills over brought me to a not-respectable 3-8 record, and this week I’m seeking to get to .333 with the Seahawks giving those 3.5 points to the Raiders. (We are disregarding my Giants pick. I made it under duress.) (Editor’s note: We’re not disregarding it. Let’s just call the record 3-9.)