Bah gawd, is that Week 13’s music I’m hearing?!!?
Seriously. It always sneaks up on me, the end of the season. Oh, sure, we still have six weeks including this one to go, but … I dunno. I get wistful. Another season, another year, like sands through the hourglass.
All right. Enough of that. Let’s look at some stupid bets we can make at America’s sportsbooks — namely, Super Bowl matchups. Who’s with me?
To be clear: There is no way, in any gambling universe, that any of the following are +EV bets. Let’s not even pretend there’s a whiff of science going on here. After all, we still have six weeks to play, plus the playoffs. Things are going to happen.
For instance … and be honest … had you even heard of Zonavan Knight before Sunday?
Is Zonovan Knight going to …
… win us our leagues?
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) November 30, 2022
Enough preamble. Here are my “top” five Super Bowl matchup bets, all from FanDuel. And by “top.” I mean “I have no idea, but these seem like decent enough bets.” In odds order, then …
1) Chiefs vs. Eagles, +1000: Right now, these are the No. 1 seeds, and with that comes the playoff bye, and with that — for my money — comes the most likely Super Bowl matchup on the board.
2) Dolphins vs. 49ers, +3000: The Shanahan vs. McDaniel storyline would be pretty fun, and with the 49ers offense all of a sudden loaded, this could be a high-scoring shootout. (This just in: They’re playing this week.)
3) Bengals vs. Cowboys, +4500: Now we’re talking. The Bengals bungled their first two games, and their last six are all tough, but if they land in the playoffs, they are going to be dangerous. Match them up with the rising Cowboys and their vicious defense, and we have a fun one. Plus Joe Burrow is well-loved.
Gets her wisdom tooth pulled and goes on an all time Cincinnati Bengals rant #Footballgal pic.twitter.com/TsMzxGQto9
— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) December 2, 2022
4) Jets vs. Eagles, +12000: Big odds for this unlikely pairing, but … what if Mike White is actually good, and the defense is actually great? Stranger things.
And lastly …
5) Jets vs. Giants, +100000: Actually, this is probably the only +EV bet on the board. Play the sim out 1,000 times, this has to happen at least once, right? It would also be the worst Super Bowl ever.
All right. Enough of this nonsense. Let’s get to the rest of the nonsense.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Did we finally break through last week? (Checks notes.) No, we did not. Our four-team home favorite parlay cashed three — the Chiefs, Commanders, and 49ers all did their part — but the Seahawks blew it all to smithereens.
So we’re 0-12.
But we just need one win to book a profit for the season, and so back to DraftKings we go and this +1969 beaut: the Falcons over the Steelers at -115, over 51.5 in the Lions-Jaguars game, the Dolphins outright over the 49ers at +170, and the Bengals outright over the Chiefs at +110.
Rationale: Well, the Falcons are better than the Steelers, and the Lions-Jags game sure looks like it’s going to go over. As for the 49ers-Dolphins, I like the idea of the student toppling the teacher in the McDaniel-Shanahan showdown. And as for the Bengals? They’re healthy, hungry, and playing very good football. They can win this. #Analysis
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
The Seahawks! Aaaargh. Down to 3-9. Need to finish strong. Back to Caesars, and at +160 when I placed this Wednesday, give me the Falcons +7 against the Steelers, the Ravens -2.5 against the Broncos, and the Eagles getting a half-point against the Colts. What could go wrong?
This one is looking a little fishy
I thought the Packers getting a touchdown was fishy last week. The Packers lost by a touchdown. I’ll take the push for a 4-7-1 mark. This week’s fishy bet is the Ravens giving 8.5 points to the Broncos. The Ravens should’ve scored 40 last week if not for red zone woes, and the Broncos are scoring the fewest touchdowns allowed by law. This has 24-0 written all over it. Might even make this my best bet. Should have put it in the parlay. Actually, I am putting it in the parlay. Add the leg. Brings the parlay to +3851. God, I feel alive!
Just fell down a flight of stairs, the pain feels so good. I feel alive . I haven’t been living.
— Mqhele ( Mikel ) (@xaviNiniesta) November 23, 2022
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Hard no on that.
DraftKings play(s) of the week
Josh Jacobs chalk week after not being chalk when he should’ve been chalk? Yeah, why not. Nick Chubb also looks good to me, and — gulp — David Montgomery may explode this week at home against the Packers. I love stacking the Jags-Lions every which way, and the Jets-Vikings game has White-Wilson-Hockenson written all over it. In short: Scary out there. Oh, and there’s about five other games with legit shootout potential. Take my money.
My mortal lock five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
I’m 3-9, I’m terrible, take the Ravens, give the 8.5, don’t look back. We’re going to close out the season on a heater! (Narrator’s voice: No we’re not.)