I’m kind of an idiot, all things considered. I mean, not like the “fourth iteration of Michael Keaton in Multiplicity” kind of idiot, but more like the “if the Buddhists are correct and we keep getting reincarnated and live billions of lives to understand the nature of the universe and reach nirvana, I’m only on life No. 25 or so” kind of idiot.
What I’m trying to say is I’m kind of easily led.
Case in point: At a roadside Mexican restaurant years ago, my wife brought me an apple soda by mistake. I tried it, didn’t like it. She tried it, loved it. So then I tried it again, and I loved it.
See? Simple. And it took me two weeks to remember she loathes apple juice, so I asked her if she really liked the apple soda, and she gave me a pitying look and said, “No.”
I’m also heavily influenced by media, particularly fictional media. I distinctly recall seeing Backdraft — movie about firefighters — and then I spent the next few weeks legitimately, honestly, no joke thinking about becoming a fireman. (For those of you who actually know me, this is an altogether laughable concept.)
Well, that scenario is happening again as I type this. In my mind, currently, I am a potential philanderer, a potential murderer, a potential rich gay guy, a potential poor straight call girl, a potential rich schnook, a potential …
I kind of have White Lotus fever is what I’m trying to say. For the time being, I’m more interested in Mike White than I am in Mike White.
Jets vs. White Lotus
Big Sunday for
— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) December 11, 2022
I kid you not: All I’m listening to right now is a Spotify playlist of the music from Season 2. It’s been going on for weeks. Italian music coming out of every speaker. It is driving my family crazy. I want to be a White Lotus resort guest in the worst way possible. I mean, I know it’s fiction, but goodness, it sure does look like fun.
I want to stay at a White Lotus despite the very real dangers of infidelity and murder. The linens look divine.
— Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) December 12, 2022
Anyway, because all I’m thinking about currently is what happened in a fictional universe, I present to you: “What kind of NFL bettors would the White Lotus characters be?”
I also can’t believe you’re still reading.
Tanya: Betting on what she thinks should be, instead of what is. Translation: She’s lost a lot of money on Cowboys in her lifetime. (Seriously, that last sentence was brilliant, if you’re a football and White Lotus fan. And I’m happy all three of you noticed. This will also mark the high point of this exercise.)
Ethan: Likes betting the -975 moneyline favorite. (I have a little Ethan in me. Stay tuned.)
Harper: Much like her husband, prefers sure things, but if she loses, will be tempted to latch a door and go crazy betting road dogs.
Cameron: The king of road dogs.
Daphne: She’s picking six-team parlays based on the colors of a team’s uniform. And she’s cashing half the time.
Meghann Fahy is SUCH a good actor. these 30 seconds of Daphne processing her husband’s affair (and then calculating how she’s gonna get back at him) are perfection#TheWhiteLotus pic.twitter.com/razdMtDu5G
— Spencer Althouse (@SpencerAlthouse) December 12, 2022
Albie: Only bets on teams with female owners because he’s against the patriarchy.
Dominic: Willing to put $50,000 down for the promise of inside information.
Bert: Bets on the teams with the hottest cheerleaders.
Jack: Only bets on West Ham United.
All right. Enough of this nonsense. On with the rest of this nonsense.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Oh my god I am metaphorically throwing my company-issued laptop through my wife-approved kitchen window. Holy moly. I had a six-team, +2971 parlay working here. Jets +9.5 against the Bills? Check. Bengals -6 against the Browns? Check. Ravens moneyline over the Steelers? Check. Eagles moneyline over the Giants? Check. Lions giving 2.5 points to the Vikings? Check. Titans moneyline over the Jaguars? (That sound you just heard was my window smashing.)
I mean, come on. Come on. COME ON.
We’re 0-14. Still need to get that win to turn a profit. Let’s do this. Here we go. Worst one yet. It’s a seven-team, +1497 special, booked at DraftKings. Vikings -205 moneyline over the Colts at home, Bills -330 moneyline over the Dolphins at home, Eagles -390 moneyline on the road in Chicago, Chiefs -975 moneyline over the Texans in Houston, Panthers -2.5 over the Steelers at home, Patriots -110 moneyline in Las Vegas, and Broncos -150 moneyline over the Cards at home.
Rationale: I’m an idiot, remember? Looking forward to all of these being winners except the Texans somehow knocking off the Chiefs. By the way, take that game off the docket, we’re at +1348. Why I’m not doing that, I’ll never know.
Oh wait. I do know. Because I’m an idiot.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
It lost last week. I had the Eagles giving a point, the Bengals at pick’em, and … the TITANS GETTING TWO POINTS.
Sorry for hollering. I’ll try to rein it in.
This week, I’m taking my sorry 3-11 record to Caesars, where I’m taking the Bills giving 1.5 points to Miami, the Panthers getting 3.5 at home against the Steelers, and Commanders getting 1.5 points Sunday night at home against the Giants.
This one is looking a little fishy
Record up to 5-8-1, as I loved the Bengals last week, and they didn’t let me down. Those six points were nowhere near enough.
This week’s fishy special? The Patriots being pick‘em at Las Vegas. The Raiders have to be demoralized after last week’s ridiculous loss to the Rams, the Patriots run defense should be able to stifle Josh Jacobs, and in which part of the metaverse does Bill Belichick lose to Josh McDaniels with the playoffs on the line?
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
No, but I had a decent enough week in NFL DFS, which means I kept my losses to a minimum. As if you couldn’t tell from everything else I’ve written, this has been a subpar NFL betting year for me.
DraftKings play(s) of the week
I feel like I should’ve had a better week last week, especially since I ended this piece here saying, “Now that I think about it, starting your team Hurts-McCaffrey-Brown, and going with some of the less-chalky inexpensive pieces in Vikings-Lions, feels like I might turn my all-caps off next week when you ask me if I won the Milly.”
Now: Did I have that lineup anywhere? Glad you asked. I did. Added Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and D’Andre Swift to it. Also had Jerry Jeudy, Panthers D, and Chig Okonkwo. A 186.28 point lineup. Good for a $15 win on a $3 entry. Swift was a killer, obviously.
This week? There are a few things I absolutely love. I love Derrick Henry against the Chargers, with a Mike Williams bringback. I love Elijiah Moore against the Lions. I love Hollywood Brown against the Broncos with a Greg Dulcich bringback. I love Isiah Pacheco against the Texans. A lot of love. I hope it pays off.
My mortal lock five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
All righty then, the Bengals brought it to 4-10. Yay. This week, let’s go with the Patriots. I can’t see Belichick losing this game. Seems like it would go against the laws of physics. Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go rewatch White Lotus.