• About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling
This site contains commercial content
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
No Result
View All Result

NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool: Heavily-Favored Patriots Not The Smart Pick

It’s imperative to maximize your chances to win

Brett Smiley by Brett Smiley
September 12, 2019
in Sports
Dec 9, 2018; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake (32) runs the ball for a walk off touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Dec 9, 2018; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake (32) runs the ball for a walk off touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The New England Patriots are going to beat the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Probably, or almost certainly. The visiting Patriots are now hovering around 18.5-point favorites across most sportsbooks, among the largest point spreads in NFL history. And of course the Pats have added Antonio “Mr. Big Chest” Brown to their receiving corps, although his availability is uncertain due to persistent ongoing chaos and recent allegations. 

For your survivor pool selection this week, you may have already looked at the Pats-Dolphins spread, laughed, picked New England and begun looking ahead to the slate of Week 3 options. 

While a successful mantra in many weeks is “survive and advance,” rules have exceptions. This week is one of them. In the event of a big upset and your survival courtesy a non-Patriots team, you would become very well positioned to seize a winner-take-all prize in subsequent weeks against a heavily narrowed field of competitors. You don’t get a prize for surviving 11 weeks and beating 90% of contestants. 

NFL Week 2 survivor pool considerations

With that in mind, it’s imperative to maximize your chances to win. And knowing who your opponents will be taking is a critical piece of information. Anytime 33% plus of your pool is on the same team, it’s probably worth blindly bucking that squad, assuming there are at least semi-viable alternative selections. You want to avoid stepping on the same land mines as everyone else. 

(Important caveat: The premise set forth in this article applies to larger survivor pools sized roughly 50-plus. In smaller pools that typically end earlier in the season, you may want to go conservative. The larger the pool, the more contrarian you have to be.)

Yes, this Dolphins team coached by longtime Patriots assistant coach Brian Flores is uniquely bad and obviously engaged in tank mode. Still, consider that the fellow AFC East Dolphins have beaten the Patriots in five of their last six matchups in Miami. Seriously, five of the last six, including wins over two Super Bowl winning Patriots teams (2014, 2018). Two years ago (2017), the 10-2 Pats visited the 5-7 Fins as 10.5-point favorites. A flat Pats squad converted 0-11 on third downs, and fell 27-20. 

Maybe it’s the familiarity of the opponent or the Miami heat. At game time on Sunday, the forecast is 90 degrees and humid. Patriots players are indeed human.

You may not put any stock in trends or narratives such as “letdown spots” or “looking past” an opponent, and that’s fine, but this is still a great opportunity to let the rest of your pool lose more than a third of the cavalry. In both ESPN and Yahoo! survivor pools, currently 36% of poolsters are on the Patriots. 

If you tap New England and they win — there’s a 95% implied probability according to the current money lines — congrats, you survived on a consensus pick and struck a high value Patriots team from your menu of options going forward. The implied probability is largely a function of public perception and sportsbook liability, though, and perhaps not the reality of the matchup. But this is the NFL.

FiveThirtyEight’s metrics give the Dolphins a 19% chance to win (your power rankings and handicapping may vary!). Would you get on a plane that has a 19% chance of crashing? If you take the Pats, and they win, you and everyone else will advance and you’ll have gained nothing. But if they lose, and you’re on someone else, you’ll be sitting pretty in a much smaller group of survivors.

As far as your other options, well that’s another article. The most popular alternative choices including the Ravens (-13) vs. Cardinals, Texans (-9.5) vs. Jaguars, followed by a pair of road teams against divisional opponents — Chiefs (-7.5) at Raiders and Cowboys (-5.5) at Redskins.

Choose your own adventure and may the ball bounce your way. 

ShareTweetShare
Brett Smiley

Brett Smiley

Brett Smiley is editor-in-chief and co-founder of Sports Handle, which joined forces with the US Bets team in November 2018. He focuses on the sports betting industry and legislation. He's a recreational sports bettor and DFS player himself, focusing on the NFL. In a past life, Smiley practiced commercial litigation in New York City and previously wrote for FOX Sports and SI.com. He lives in New Jersey with his family.

Related Posts

Matthew Berry
Features

The NFL Has Become A Year-Round Sports Betting And Fantasy Machine

March 7, 2023
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Features

Ontario Bettor Hopes To Set Precedent With Caesars Suit On Hamlin Settlements

March 2, 2023
Load More

Top Stories

taylor mathis

Taylor Mathis Got Sacrificed At The Altar Of Responsible Gambling

March 20, 2023
fanduel baseball wall

Premade Same Game Parlays Are Sucker Bets

March 13, 2023
maginfier-over-small-print

Read The Fine Print: A Proposed Federal Rule Could Change Everything For Indian Gaming

March 6, 2023
roman reigns wwe

Colorado Denies Report Stating That It’s Considering WWE Wagering

March 8, 2023

State Sports Betting Guides

Ohio (U.S. state) flag waving against clear blue sky, close up, isolated with clipping path mask alpha channel transparency, perfect for film, news, composition

Ohio Sports Betting – Where To Play, Bonus Offers And Promo Codes

by Brian Pempus
March 27, 2023

Downtown Detroit at twilight (Shutterstock)

Michigan Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
March 27, 2023

VA captial

Virginia Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonus Offers

by Brett Smiley
January 17, 2023

nj flag

New Jersey Sports Betting — Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
March 22, 2023

pa online sportsbooks

Pennsylvania Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonuses

by Brett Smiley
October 6, 2022

Canada Sports Betting Guides

Canada Sports Betting – Best Sportsbook Apps & Bonus Offers

British Columbia Sports Betting – Legal Update, Available Sportsbooks, and FAQ

Ontario Sports Betting – Legal Status And Where To Play

SportsHandle

  • Analysis
  • Casino
  • Features
  • Horse Racing
  • Industry
  • Legal
  • Legislation
  • Opinion
  • Podcasts
  • Poker
  • Politics
  • Promotions
  • Regulation
  • Sports
  • Uncategorized

Better Collective

This website is owned and operated by Better Collective USA. Trademarks and copyrights referenced on this website are and shall remain the exclusive property of their respective owners and/or licensors. Please be sure to visit the operator’s website(s) to review their terms & conditions. We advise you to read these carefully as they contain important information. Copyright © 2023 USBets.com | Better Collective USA
21 Play Responsibly
Gamble Aware West Virginia
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
GameSense

Search Sports Handle

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling

No Result
View All Result
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News

loading

Please wait while you are redirected to the right page...