Fool me once, shame on me.
Fool me twice, shame on you.
Fool me a third time, it probably means I’m taking the Bengals and laying the 4.5 points when they travel to take on the Jets this weekend.
So after Week 1, it’s all about “let’s not overreact.”
But after Week 2, it’s all about “holy moly, are we properly reacting?”
And the answer to that question is wildly important. To wit: those Bengals. According to ESPN Stats and Info, they’re not only the first team to lose the first two games of the season in the Super Bowl era as 7 (or more) point favorites, they’re also the first to lose each of their first two games of the season as time expired.
Via the Elias Sports Bureau: The Bengals are the first team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to lose each of their first two games of a season on the final play of the game (go-ahead points as time expired).
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 19, 2022
So: Are we properly reacting to the Bengals’ rough start? Or are we still in “overreact” mode?
Well … as stated above, the sportsbooks have them as 4.5-point road favorites against the Jets Sunday. They don’t lose on back-to-back field goals? They’re easily touchdown favorites.
Another team we might be on the wrong side of is the Carolina Panthers.
They’ve been on the wrong side of variance, as they’re the first squad to ever lose two games in a row on game-winning 55-yard (or more) field goals.
The Panthers first two games this season…
– Week 1: loss via go-ahead 58-yd FG
– Week 2: loss via go-ahead 56-yd FG
Carolina is the first team to allow go-ahead 55+ yard FG in the 4th qtr/OT in consecutive games.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/hAG0ISyzaK
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 18, 2022
Take away those game-winning kicks by the Browns and Giants, and the Panthers are 2-0, and certainly favored at home against the Saints instead of being 3-point dogs.
Another Panthers factoid: They’ve run 104 plays in their first two games. The league average last year was 63 per game, and to give you some semblance of how few plays the Panthers have run, the Seattle Seahawks last year ran almost 57 plays per game, ranking dead last. Point being: The Panthers have plenty of room on the upside.
Then there are the offenses that are humming. Are we buying the Dolphins’ fast start? The Lions? The Commanders? The sportsbooks aren’t necessarily, pegging them at 23, 21, and 23 points, respectively, heading into Week 3 — and all as underdogs.
Week 1, no one knows anything. Week 2, everyone thinks they know everything. Week 3 is where we’re going to start to separate the wheat from the chaff. (No idea what “chaff” is.)
Let’s get rolling. (All NFL bets discussed were placed Monday morning.)
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
OK, 0-2 to start the year, but that’s OK, we cool, just need to hit one biggie to pay this off. And so with that in mind, let’s go biggie and hope mo’ money does not, in fact, equal mo’ problems.
Gonna take this party to FanDuel, where I’m going to take the Panthers straight up over the Saints at +132, the Lions getting a touchdown in Minnesota at -114, the Bengals at -4.5 over the Jets, over 50.5 in Eagles-Commanders at -110, and over 51.5 in Bills-Dolphins at -110, for a grand total of +2930.
Rationale: Well, I pretty much explained it all in the intro. We’re all short on the Panthers and Bengals, I think the Lions should basically never be touchdown or more dogs due to their explosive offense, and the Commanders and Dolphins sure do seem like they can trade punches on offense when the opportunity presents itself.
We win this one, we’re guaranteed to finish the year in the black on these.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Well lookie here, we took this one down last week with the over in the Lions-Commanders game, the Chiefs getting 2.5 points against the Chargers, and the Steelers getting 7.5 points. Nailed it at +160 at Caesars, so let’s run it back there, shall we?
And let’s get stupid and make it a five-teamer at +400.
It’s the Panthers getting 9 against the Saints, the Chiefs giving a half-point to the Colts in Indy, those Bengals getting 1.5 points at the Jets, over 44.5 in the Eagles-Commanders game, and over 45.5 in the Vikings-Lions game.
Two things: One, if I kept this at three, it would be the Panthers, the Chiefs, and the Lions-Vikings. And two, please keep in mind that I have no idea what I’m talking about, I am not a football analyst, I’m just some dude who shoots from the gut. Not even the hip. The gut.
This one is looking a little fishy to me
Got my fishy record up to 1-1 by taking the Falcons and getting 11.5 points (when I placed the bet).
This week, the line that makes me go hmmmmm is over at BetMGM, where the Green Bay Packers are 3-point dogs at Tampa.
Brady vs. Rodgers, for only the fifth time. Brady is 3-1. The Bucs are banged up, and even though they beat the Saints, they looked old. The Packers, on the other hand, came to play Sunday night and pasted the Bears. Basically, the Bucs are getting the 3-point home boost, but … I dunno. Feels like it should be a pick ‘em.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Did I win the FanDuel Sunday Million?
Um, no, but holy crap I finished 119th out of 554,012. I mean, I came pretty damn close. Lineup was Tua-Waddle-Hill with an Andrews bringback, Josh Jacobs and Darrell Henderson at running back, Curtis Samuel and Amon-Ra, and Broncos D.
How much did you win?
But you entered it in small tournaments, like you did with over 70% of your other FanDuel lineups, and you binked, for instance, the $10 Sunday Scramble, right?
I entered it in zero small-field contests, and yes, the 213.76 points would’ve won the Scramble and countless other 10,000-or-fewer-entry contests. So yes. I had a lineup that literally beat out 99.98% of contestants in the big ol’ lotto, and I have 50 lousy bucks to show for it. Cue Borat for the second time this year.
DraftKings DFS play(s) of the week
Nailed Logan Thomas here last week. Not exactly a million-dollar winner, but I’ll take the W. By the way, the “play(s) of the week” is more like “bargain of the week not many people are paying attention to on DraftKings,” so there’s that.
This week — and I’m not even bothering with potential injury situations — right off the top, how do you not play Amon-Ra St. Brown at $7.2K against the Vikings? In his last eight games, he has 68 catches for 740 yards and eight touchdowns. He should not be the eighth-most expensive wide receiver.
And while the WR position is packed this week at the top — Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefan Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown are all priced higher than Amon-Whoa — there’s also plenty of wideout value.
Rondale Moore is $3.6K (if he comes back). Ashton Dulin is $3.9K (great value if no Pittman). Greg Dortch is still only $4.3K (too cheap if Moore isn’t back). Jahan Dotson is $4.6K. Curtis Samuel is $5.1K.
And those cheap-o wideouts are probably going underowned, as the running back position is underwhelming at the top. Jonathan Taylor, $9K against the Chiefs. Christian McCaffrey, $8.8K against the Saints. Then it’s down to Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler, and before you know it that’s it for $8K+ running backs.
Then you’ve got Lenny Fournette at $6.5K, Miles Sanders at $5.5K, Dameon Pierce at $5K, Raheem Mostert at $4.5K … and so on.
You ask me, the chalk build is going to be expensive wideouts and cheap running backs. Flip it around, and you’re already setting yourself up to beat 99.98% of the field and win $50. (Still a little bitter.)
So. Christian McCaffrey at sub-10% ownership? Mmm-hmmm.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
The mortal lock is 0-2. That’s no bueno. Let’s lock up the Bengals giving 4.5 points to the Jets. Heck, let’s double down and take the Panthers and the points as well.