NFL Week 5 DFS Fades: DraftKings and FanDuel Players to AvoidBy Mark Dankenbring | Published: October 6, 2017 at 11:37 am
Deciding which players to fade each week goes hand-in-hand with selecting the players you do want. We’re faced with tough decisions every week regarding who to plug into our daily fantasy football lineups. Throughout the NFL season I’ll be here every week to help you with those tough decisions, reviewing players at each position that I’m fading for the weekend.
DraftKings and FanDuel NFL Week 5 DFS Fades at QB, RB, WR, TE, and D/ST
I’m not convinced Newton is officially back to his former MVP self after his one successful week against the Patriots. While he threw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, a couple of those big plays for scores came on busted coverages, not great throws from Cam. He’ll now head to Detroit to face a defense that’s ranked fifth in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing QBs. I think people will try to ride his success from a week ago, making him an easy fade for me on the road against a defense that’s allowing just 17.5-points per game.
Roethlisberger is usually a good bet when he’s at Heinz Field, but he’s facing the top defense against fantasy quarterbacks on the season. They’ve remarkably allowed just 6.2 points per game to QBs, having allowed just 166.8 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, their run defense has been porous, as they’ve allowed the most rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry, also the most in the NFL. I expect Pittsburgh to feed Le’Veon Bell throughout the game, leaving Big Ben with little appeal in DFS this weekend. He’s priced as the QB3 on FanDuel and QB7 on DraftKings, making him one of the easier fades of the weekend.
The best offensive weapon for the Bills has been held in check since Week 1. He’s averaged a putrid 2.3 yards per carry on 46 rushing attempts, and has totaled just 220 total yards and zero touchdowns in the last three weeks. He’ll head to Cincinnati to face a Bengals defense that’s allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season and are ninth in overall defensive DVOA. I don’t see McCoy having a breakout game here, and with a salary of a top five running back on both sites, I won’t be using him in any lineups.
After a promising Week 2 where Ajayi carried the ball 28 times for 122 yards, he’s seen far less production in Weeks 3 and 4. The third-year back has seen just 23 carries and 2.7 yards per carry in those two weeks, turning in RB59 and RB38 performances. Those two games came against the Saints and Jets, who are both bottom half in the league against the rush, so I’m not optimistic that he can turn it around against the Titans. He’s still priced in the top ten of running backs for both sites, and I need to see more production before I input him into any lineups.
There’s a whole lot of uncertainty entering the weekend in Green Bay’s backfield. The week began with Aaron Jones as the top waiver wire target after Ty Montgomery (broken ribs) and Jamaal Williams (sprained knee) both got injured in Week 4. Since then, Williams has become a full participant in practice and Montgomery was marked as limited on Thursday. Even if Montgomery is able to suit up Sunday, he likely won’t see his full complement of carries, and Jones and Williams just can’t really be trusted to produce on split carries. I’ll happily avoid this messy situation and let others throw darts on a backfield that could include three options come Sunday.
I’m fading Brown this week for all the same reasons I’m fading Big Ben. The Jags have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs thus far, and I don’t think Brown has any chance of reaching his value on either site. He’s priced as the WR2 on both, making it extremely easy to pivot to guys like Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, or DeAndre Hopkins, who all find themselves in more favorable matchups. There will be plenty of weeks to fire up Brown, I just don’t think this is one of them.
Cue the fade against whoever Patrick Peterson will be shadowing this weekend. He’s held Pierre Garcon to 4-36-0, Dez Bryant to 2-12-1, T.Y. Hilton to 4-49-0, and Marvin Jones Jr. to 2-37-1. Jeffery has faced a lot of tough corners already this season and has averaged just 11 fantasy points per game through four weeks. I don’t see this is as his breakout week, making him an easy fade against one of the best corners in the game.
Oakland will play their first full game with QB EJ Manuel at the helm against a tough Ravens defense. The Ravens are ranked second in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. If Oakland is to find any success in this game, it will likely be on the ground, as Baltimore has allowed 322 rushing yards and three TDs in the last two weeks. The Ravens have also struggled against the tight end, as they rank 32nd in DVOA against the position. Therefore, I don’t see any receiver having a great game here, making for an easy fade in DFS.
Tyrell the Gazelle showed his big play ability last week by hauling in a 75-yard TD en route to a five catch, 115-yard performance against the Eagles. He’ll face a less enticing NFC East pass defense in the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-fewest points to opposing WRs thus far. He’ll likely see shadow coverage from the Jackrabbit Janoris Jenkins when lined up on the outside, who is one of the better coverage corners in the game. While he could potentially bust a big play in this one, I’ll favor the jackrabbit over the gazelle in this matchup.
While I love this game for fantasy production in general, Witten is one guy I won’t be targeting. The Packers have excelled against tight ends thus far, as they are fifth in DVOA and have allowed the second-fewest points per game against the position. Witten has also gone cold since his impressive Weeks 1 and 2. After catching 17 or 22 targets for 156 yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks, he’s caught just two of six targets for 12 yards in his previous two games. While I expect him to rack up more than one catch for six yards, I don’t think he’ll come close to his production in the first two weeks.
Graham has finished as the TE43, TE58, TE12, and TE16 after four weeks. He’s still priced as the TE4 on FanDuel and TE3 on DraftKings, which is pretty absurd given his production thus far. The Rams have allowed just 13 receptions (third-fewest) and 148 yards (seventh-fewest) to tight ends this season, so I don’t think this will be Graham’s week to finally perform up to his salary. I expect Graham to get going eventually, but won’t be putting him in any of my lineups this weekend.
The Rams are currently averaging 35.5 points per game, the most in the NFL. Sean McVay has completely turned that offense around after they finished dead last in scoring a season ago (just 14 points per game). Seattle is the most expensive defense on FanDuel and the fourth-most expensive on DraftKings. I don’t see them living up to that price tag against an offense that’s clicking on all cylinders, making them an easy fade for the weekend.