NFL Week 6 DFS Fades: DraftKings and FanDuel Players to Avoid
By Mark Dankenbring | Published: October 13, 2017 at 11:00 am
October 13, 2017
Deciding which players to fade each week goes hand-in-hand with selecting the players you do want. We’re faced with tough decisions every week regarding who to plug into our daily fantasy football lineups. Throughout the NFL season I’ll be here every week to help you with those tough decisions, reviewing players at each position that I’m fading for the weekend.
DraftKings and FanDuel NFL Week 6 DFS Fades at QB, RB, WR, TE, and D/ST
Quarterback
Jared Goff (LAR, FD: $7,500, DK: $5,000) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The second-year man out of Cal will travel across the country to face the league’s toughest defense in terms of fantasy scoring. Jacksonville has allowed a remarkably low 5.5-points per game to opposing QBs so far this season. While Goff has shown improvement in his second year, he’s thrown just seven touchdowns in five weeks and isn’t in a breakout spot in this matchup. I expect the game plan to feature Todd Gurley, so Goff is an easy fade on the road against a stifling pass defense.
Trevor Siemian (DEN, FD: $7,500, DK: $5,500) vs New York Giants
Siemian should be able to post a decent game against a beaten up Giants defense, but I don’t see him attempting enough passes to make for a viable DFS target. The Giants will be traveling to Denver without their entire starting WR corps that began the season, and rightfully have the lowest team total of the weekend at 13 points. Other players might be enamored by Denver’s high team total (25) and home matchup coming off the bye, but I’m much more interested in CJ Anderson than Siemian in this particular matchup. Denver should cruise to victory and won’t need to rely on Siemian to move the ball, so I’ll stay away from him in DFS.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery (GB, FD: $7,200, DK: $6,700) at Minnesota Vikings
It looks like the converted WR will suit up this weekend in a big divisional matchup against the Vikings. Even without broken ribs, I wouldn’t be excited about his chances of having a big game. Aaron Jones showed he’s more than capable of handling the rushing load (19-125-1 against Dallas), so he should break into the huge workload Montgomery saw in the first few weeks, making Montgomery more of a third down back. Minnesota is also pretty good against the run, as they’re 11th in DVOA against the rush and against pass-catching backs. They’ve allowed the second-fewest points per game to opposing RBs, so I’ll pay up elsewhere at the position this week.
Jay Ajayi (MIA, FD: $6,900, DK: $5,700) at Miami Dolphins
Ajayi has a terrible matchup this weekend, as he’s a 13-point dog on the road in Atlanta. He’s also been in bad form, totaling just 159 total yards on 53 touches (48 rush, 5 rec) in the past three weeks behind a bad offensive line. He’s not a feature in the passing game with just nine targets on the season, so I don’t see him getting much work if the Dolphins are behind. Hopefully Miami will figure out their offensive woes eventually and we can play Ajayi again, but he’s an easy fade this weekend as he remains in the top 12 in terms of pricing on both sites.
Carlos Hyde (SF, FD: $6,700, DK: $6,200) at Washington Redskins
Hyde has seen his touches decrease each of the last three weeks, going from 28 to 21 to 9 last week in Indianapolis. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said he plans to ride the hot hand again in the future he did in Indy (Matt Breida saw 13 touches but out-snapped Hyde), so I’m not confident Hyde’s workload will automatically return in this matchup. Also, the Redskins have been a strong defense this season, ranked fourth overall in DVOA and eighth in DVOA against the run. The pieces just don’t fit for Hyde this weekend, so I’ll be fading him in a tough matchup on the road.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans (TB, FD: $8,100, DK: $6,900) at Arizona Cardinals
The third-year stud has one of the toughest matchups of the weekend against CB Patrick Peterson. He had some fantasy success in this game last season, finishing with 6-70-1, but that came on 18 targets in a 40-7 loss. Arizona shouldn’t pull away in this one, causing a more balanced attack from Tampa Bay. Also, Evans saw over 30% of the team’s target share a season ago, but that number is down to 25% with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. I’ve never targeted a WR against Peterson in DFS before, and am not going to start this week.
Jordy Nelson (GB, FD: $8,100, DK: $7,100) at Minnesota Vikings
The leading touchdown getter among WRs has a difficult matchup in his own right against Xavier Rhodes in Minnesota. He missed the last drive in Week 5 due to a back injury, so might not be 100% healthy heading into the weekend. Nelson has been a touchdown machine, scoring six in four full games, but that pace is unsustainable. He hasn’t surpassed 80 receiving yards in any games this season, so if he’s unable to reach the end zone he could wind up with a really weak performance. I trust Rhodes to hold him in check, and think Rodgers will look to the rest of his weapons as auxiliary options.
Demaryius Thomas (DEN, FD: $6,800, DK: $6,800) vs. New York Giants
As I mentioned under Siemian, I don’t envision the Broncos having to rely on the passing game in order to handle the 0-5 Giants. Of all the pass-catchers, Thomas will draw the toughest matchup against Janoris Jenkins, giving him an even lower floor and ceiling. DT has also seen fewer targets than Emanuel Sanders (32 to 35) and is fourth on the team in red zone targets with two. I don’t see that all changing this weekend, so I’ll wait until he finds his stride before I use him in DFS.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett (GB, FD: $5,500, DK: $3,600) at Minnesota Vikings
I’m not sure how anyone can have confidence playing Bennett this weekend, as he’s averaging just four catches for 38.8 receiving yards per game. He’s still yet to be targeted in the red zone, and in a position that heavily relies on touchdowns for production, Bennett doesn’t really seem close to reaching his potential. Green Bay has had success without using Bennett in the red zone, so I don’t see a huge change upcoming in the game plan for Week 6.
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Rams (FD: $4,900, DK: $3,200) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m not sure why the Rams are the fourth and 10th-priced defense on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively, as they’ve scored just 17 total points since their 28 point effort against the Scott Tolzien-led Colts in Week 1. Also, L.A. has struggled against the run this season (allowed fourth-most rushing yards and most touchdowns) and will face a Jaguars team that runs more often than any other NFL team (55.4% of their plays). None of this adds up to a prolific scoring week for the Rams on defense, so I’ll happily fade them this weekend.
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