FADE IN:
JEFF sits on his couch, cellphone in hand. His wife KELLY enters the room with a bushelful of apples.
KELLY
You OK? What’s wrong?
JEFF
Waddle.
KELLY
What? You want me to waddle? This is the weirdest sex thing you’ve asked for yet. Are you watching penguin porn now? I didn’t even know penguin porn was a thing. You’re disgusting. I’m calling your mother.
JEFF
Waddle. Waddle. WADDLE!!!
INT: FLASHBACK, COUCH, EARLIER THAT MORNING
JEFF sits on his couch, cellphone in hand, he is fully engaged with it while KELLY sits next to him.
JEFF
OK, this is looking good. I really feel like DraftKings has all these reception props messed up. Yeah, Nick Westbrook-Ikhane over 2.5 receptions at -170? No Julio, no A.J., Tannehill has to throw the ball to somebody. Same with Devonta Smith at over 3.5 receptions at -170. All day long. Evan Engram over 2.5 at -180? Without Shepard and Dar-
KELLY
I don’t care. Why are you telling me this? I thought we were going apple picking?
JEFF
-ius Slayton, that’s a layup. K.J. Osborn under 3.5 at -185? I might do that at under 2.5. The guy is a pretender, no way he’s hitting that number. Diontae Johnson over 6.5 at +120. Plus money? Are you even for real right now? Big Ben looks his way 15 times a game! And last but not least Jay-
KELLY
I’m taking the kids. I’ll be back later. Can you at least throw in a load of laundry?
JEFF
-len Waddle. Over 3.5 at -190. The guy hasn’t caught fewer than four balls yet, and he’s had 21 targets over the last two weeks! Easy money. Let’s parlay all these together and we’re at +1929. Got a pair of $5 free bets here, and this is looking like an easy $200. Love this parlay. Kelly, we’re eating steak tonight! Kelly? Kelly?! Hmmmph.
INT: BEDROOM
JEFF opens his bureau drawer.
JEFF
(mumbling to himself)
Where’s my lucky T-shirt? Where are my clean underpants? Where’s the washing machine? Do we have a washing machine? Must ask Kristin. I mean Kelly. Must ask Kelly.
INT: LIVING ROOM, PRESENT
JEFF is watching football, the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. A montage follows, featuring Jaylen Waddle catching three balls in the first 12 minutes of the first quarter.
JEFF
Yes!
The montage continues. Football players and numbers run across the screen. Westbrook-Ikhane, three catches. Davonta Smith, seven catches. K.J. Osborn, three catches. Evan Engram, five catches. Diontae Johnson, nine catches. Jaylen Waddle …
ANNOUNCER
And that’s the ballgame, Colts win, and somehow Jaylen Waddle didn’t catch one ball in the last 48 minutes of play. Tough break for those over-3.5 bettors, especially those who had that in a six-leg parlay, even worse for those who hit the other five legs.
JEFF
You [bleeping] got to be [bleeping] kidding me.
Door opens, kids come rushing in, KELLY enters with a bushelful of apples. The sound of penguins frolicking drowns out the announcer’s voice.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Well, my Sunday morning reception bonanza parlay waddled right off the screen and into the trash can, but my early week +1149 … well, that also failed despite the fact I had the Jets +8, the under 51.5 in the Seahawks-49ers game, and the Chargers giving 3 to the Raiders. Where did it go wrong? Where it went wrong for about every other parlay bettor in America in week 4: the freaking Buccaneers giving 6.5. Unreal.
I mean, come on. I had the stones to pick the freaking Jets and I lose with the defending Super Bowl champs?
I need a moment. Cue up the penguins. BRB with this week’s +1000 parlay.
Here we are. Back in the saddle. My +1000 parlay of the week is …
Ugh. I hate going all favorites here, but the (penguin) heart wants what the (penguin) heart wants. Headed to Caesars for this one, placed Wednesday morning: Packers giving 3 points on the road to the Bengals, Chargers giving 1.5 points at home to the Browns, Chiefs giving 2.5 at home against the Bills, and the Ravens giving 7 points at home against the Colts.
Keeping in mind I know nothing, the rationale is simple: The Packers are just a much better team; the Chargers — I believe — are playing like the potential best team in the NFL; the Chiefs looked like they righted their ship last week and Arrowhead is an impossible place to play; and the Ravens should maul the overmatched Colts.
The on-paper, no-doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Last week, it lost. Went a little silly with a four-teamer, hit three — Cowboys getting 1.5 points, the Bucs giving a point, the Chargers getting 2.5 points — and got toasted on the over 45.5 in the Vikings-Browns game, which last I checked ended with the score 2-1.
This week at FanDuel I’ll bring it back down to a +140 three-teamer with the Chargers getting 4.5 points from the Browns, the Cowboys giving a point to the Giants, and the Ravens giving a point to the Colts. I fail to see how this loses. In fact, if it does lose, I vow to actually go apple picking. That’s a solemn promise.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
YES!
Really?
No. I cashed one lineup out of 14. Leave me alone.
DraftKings DFS play of the week
Last week I went out on a limb with Terrace Marshall Jr. for $4K and with his one catch for two yards last week, that limb snapped quicker than Joe Theismann’s leg. (Too soon?)
This week, with DraftKings pricing tightening up once again, I’m going to believe that Lenny Fournette is now the full-on feature back for the Bucs, and for $5.2K against the Dolphins — who are 27th in rushing yards allowed per game despite facing the Patriots, Bills, Raiders, and Colts — he looks like a smash. I assume he’ll be chalk by Sunday, but whaddya gonna do.
If you’re looking for something deeper a la Marshall, you’re A) a masochist for actually wanting me to give you a play and B) it’s obviously Laviska Shenault Jr. for $4.8K against the woeful secondary of the Titans.
Survivor pick of the week
I once again advanced despite having zero Survivor shares anywhere. I’ve knocked off the Rams, Browns, Broncos, and Bills thus far. This week I’m going with the Ravens. So much fun doing this without any money on the line. Almost as fun as picking apples. (Seriously: What the hell with picking apples? What joy does every wife/girlfriend get out of this? A deeper dive is necessary.)
Best odds boost of the week
Honestly, not a ton out there this week, at least thus far. I guess there’s a bit of a race in the single game parlay wars. FanDuel is offering one up to $10 risk-free, DraftKings is giving you a 25% profit boost, PointsBet is offering one for up to $25 back in a free bet, and BetMGM is offering up to $25 back, assuming you hit three out of four legs. Gosh, I’d really like to know what the hold percentage is on these SGPs …
Trap game of the week
Finally got beat here, when I thought the Chiefs giving 7 at Philly was too much. Alas, Tyreek Hill — who I proudly had 0% of in DFS because the Eagles defense is built to take away the long ball, thank you every fantasy and DFS analyst in the world — had something to say about that.
This week, the favorite that scares me the most is the Saints giving 2 points at Washington. The Saints offense is ugly, and the WFT defense — while playing terrible so far — has incredible talent. Not to mention the WFT offense finally clicked last week. Add it together, and I almost think the oddsmakers have this line completely backward.
Player props I like
My screenplay above (which may or may not have a certain Ron Howard interested) {narrator voice: he isn’t} laid out the horror that was Waddle, who I had locked in at -145 earlier in the week. Seriously: three grabs in the first quarter, nothing after that. Just … pain. Thankfully the rest of my props … oh man. Marshall flopped, Chuba Hubbard flopped. Not great. I did cash the Taysom Hill under 2.5 receiving yards and the Robert Woods under 4.5 rushing yards, so not all was lost.
This week? Over at DraftKings I like …
Zeke Elliott over 75.5 rushing yards at -110 (he’s looking great); Hunter Renfrow over 4.5 receptions at -110 (he hasn’t had a game with less than five catches or six targets); and Jaylen Hurts over 44.5 rushing yards at -110 (the Panthers blitz like it’s London, 1940).
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Had the Chargers last week, which means I’m up to 2-2 on my “bet every dime you have and then call your brother and borrow all his money and maybe even commit some minor fraud to get even more cash” best bets.
This week? Right back to the Chargers. Not entirely sure why the oddsmakers continue to disrespect the best team in the AFC. Wish I had taken them at the pick ‘em open against the Browns, but I’m fine laying the 1.5 points (which I bet Wednesday). That number is now up to 2 points at Barstool, FOX Bet, and BetRivers.
A little bonus for ya here: the Chargers to win the Super Bowl at +2100 on FanDuel. Not likely, and not great odds honestly, but I’m telling you: I really like this team, and I know everything about the NFL. {narrator voice: He doesn’t.}.
