I donβt know what Iβm talking about. We really should start there. I am not an NFL gambling analyst, I am not an NFL DFS expert. Just wanted to be clear.
I feel compelled to say this because this weekly column is going to feature things that NFL gambling analysts and NFL DFS experts say and do. Like, Iβm going to tell you a little bit later why I like the Lions, and why I think Saquon Barkley and his $6.1K DraftKings salary is the lowest you want to go at running back this week.
Fact is, Iβm going to sound a lot like an NFL gambling analyst and a NFL DFS expert.
THE JUSTIN TUCKER HAVE ANY MORE DOINKS HE CAN HAVE HIS OWN SURVIVOR SERIES TEAM. #BALvsBUF pic.twitter.com/ujhpZRLZ4t
— The Iron Sheik (@the_ironsheik) January 17, 2021
But Iβm not.
So what am I?
Just a dude who has been playing Fantasy Football — yes, I capitalized it, come at me, grammar police — since 1986 and betting on games for equally as long. If I havenβt learned a thing or two in these 36 years, well β¦ come on. Of course I have.Β
Basically, Iβve learned what the best process is — for me. It goes something like this β¦
Monday morning: Guess the lines, see how I do, place bets on games where Iβm βwrongβ about the lines.
Monday morning, part II: Scroll through the DraftKings prices, commit them to memory instantaneously β even though when I call the pediatrician to make an appointment for one of my three kids, I hiccup when they ask me the birthdate of the child in question. And then I build out a few cash game lineups I like at this point in the week.
Monday morning, part III until Wednesday eveningβs RotoGrinders βPick Sixβ podcast: Wait around for content to start coming out.
Rest of the week: Read, listen, and digest every bit of news and opinion I can get my hands on to shape the rest of my lineup building and bet making.
Youβll notice my early week process — the only time Iβm actually doing the βworkβ — is all gut-level stuff. Of course, my opinions will change during the week, but that βfirst lookβ work I do? I think itβs extremely important, and I put a lot of faith in it. Again: You do something for 36 years, you pick up a thing or two.
I trust my gut more than I trust any of you
— being human (@tulobh) September 5, 2022
And so thatβs what this column is going to be. Itβs gut check time, hopefully published Tuesday mornings, before the cavalcade of actual experts and analysts begin their weekly fusillade of takes (and taeks).
To be clear, again: I ainβt no expert, I ainβt no analyst. Iβm just a guy checking my (ever-expanding) gut.Β
On with the show β¦Β
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Well, Iβm already cheating, as this one comes in at +960 on FanDuel, but I have to because at the time of this writing, Iβm getting the 49ers giving 6.5 points to the Bears at -120 instead of the 7 points I see everywhere else. And Iβm matching that with the Saints over the Falcons at -225, the Chiefs over the Cardinals at -198, and β¦ the Lions outright over the Eagles at +166.
Rationale? Well, first of all, itβs week one, so donβt even get me started on βrationale.β No one knows nuthinβ right now, thatβs my stance, but my know-nuthinβness breaks down like this: If the Bears are as putrid as everyone thinks they are, this should be a 10-point spread; the Saints defense will be enough to win this game; the Chiefs arenβt all of a sudden going to crater without Tyreek, and β¦ listen: Iβm buying all the Lions hype. I might go as Dan Campbellβs facial hair for Halloween.
Dan Campbellβs answer to the question is well worth the wait
pic.twitter.com/SBa03CrgRD— Barstool Detroit (@BSMotorCity) September 7, 2022
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Headed to DraftKings here, which is as good a time as any to note the following: Please line shop. For instance, FanDuelβs standard three-team teaser is +140. DraftKings’ standard three-team teaser is +160. Notice a difference? Yeah. Anyway β¦
Gimme the 49ers giving a point to the Bears, the Broncos giving a half-point to the Seahawks, and the Saints getting a point. Weβve already covered the Saints and Niners, and thereβs zero chance Russ Wilson is going to lose his first game as a Bronco in Seattle, right? Right??? Right?!?!?
Russell Wilson to Pete Carroll pic.twitter.com/wYXMYcSLO3
— Denver Broncos 365 (@DailyBroncos) September 6, 2022
This one smells fishy
The Miami Dolphins are 3-point favorites over the New England Patriots. On paper, this makes sense. The Dolphins sure do appear to be the better team. Plus theyβre home, plus itβs going to be 90 degrees. But uh β¦ are we sure we want to bet against Bill Belichick in a game heβs had about four months to prepare for against a rookie head coach? Iβm not sure.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Well, not yet. I just need to beat out 1,194,450 other people in the $5 Milly Maker. That seems like a reasonable goal. Of course, thereβs the $100 Milly Maker — limited to 28,029 entries — but Iβm not a Rockefeller, ya dig?Β
DraftKings DFS play(s) of the week
I hate week one DFS. Prices come out waaaaaay too early, so thereβs going to be a ton of stupid value. Like Dameon Pierce at $4.8K, WanβDale Robinson at $3K, Kadarius Toney at $4.1K, Jameis Winston at $5.3K, and probably a dozen more.
Point is, on DraftKings, you can punt off tight end with Brevin Jordan, toss in Pierce and Robinson and the Dolphins D, and end up with Winston, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Alvin Kamara, and JaβMarr Chase. And while thatβs an awesome lineup — and, as of now, my cash game lineup, though I may go up from Kamara to Jonathan Taylor or Austin Ekeler and move down from Chase — the point is obvious: You can build any lineup you want.
And one lineup method I expect to be under-owned is the middle-of-the-road guys. Itβs too easy to lock in the superstuds, so I feel like people are going to be ignoring guys like the aforementioned Saquon Barkley at $6.1K. I mean, if things go as planned for the New York Giants, Barkley is going to be $9K in a few weeks. He *should* be game script independent, he *should* be the goal line back, he *should* be the bellcow. If every βshouldβ becomes an βis,β he might be the key to this slate.Β
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the century
Come on. The 49ers giving 6.5 points to the Bears. Thatβs a layup.