Some thoughts, ruminations, and belly-button gazing as we head into “Super Wild Card Weekend,” which is either going to be the most exciting football weekend of the year or the meh appetizer before the main course that is the divisional round.
Look at the potential matchups next week: Bengals at Bills, for starters. Cowboys at Eagles on the table. The Vikings at San Francisco could be a barn burner, as could the Chargers at the Chiefs.
But first, the Bengals, Cowboys, Vikings, Bills, 49ers, and Chargers have to win, which is not promised, and, in same cases, barely expected.
First up, the Bills and 49ers. Sportsbooks are all over both teams this week, with the Bills a consensus 13-point favorite over the Dolphins (at Caesars and others) and the 49ers 9.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks at DraftKings and elsewhere.
Either team losing would be a tremendous upset. Letβs move on.
Next up, the Bengals. They getΒ Red Hot Raskyβs “team of destiny”Β nod, coming in third in the rankings (behind the 49ers and, of course, the Bills). They also have the backing of the books, giving 9.5 points to the Ravens at PointsBet and everywhere else. They have a moderately stiffer test against their division rival Baltimore, but the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson.
Yes, Jackson is injured, but β¦ well, this daily update from Adam Schefter does feel just this side of snarky.
Thirty eight days after he sprained his PCL, Ravensβ QB Lamar Jackson missed another practice and he is on track to miss his sixth straight game.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 11, 2023
Is Jackson milking his injury? Is he not willing to risk aggravating it, as he knows a fat contract offer is coming from the 14 or so teams that need a quarterback? Is Jackson purposefully ditching the Ravens so they wonβt franchise him?Β
Who knows, but I kind of feel thatβs what Schefter is asking.
Anyway, Bengals in a romp.
As for the Cowboys, Vikings, and Chargers?
Well, for those teams, itβs a little bit of a different tune. Theyβre all favored β the Chargers by 2 points over the Jaguars, the Cowboys by 2.5 points over the Buccaneers, and the Vikings by 3 points over the Giants.
And β¦ well, letβs talk about those three teams in the teaser section below, OK?
Letβs lose some money!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Why not, right? I mean, we lost again last week, but the playoffs are a rebirth! We can do this!Β
And since player props have already been posted, I can dig in there and really get my parlay party rocking.
So letβs go to DraftKings and build the following: Keenan Allen, over 6.5 receptions at -130; Chris Godwin, over 7.5 receptions at +115; Christian McCaffrey, anytime touchdown at -150; and Saquon Barkley, over 99.5 rushing and receiving yards at -115. It comes in at a modest +1085, and I like it for one simple reason: Itβs the playoffs, and teams are going to get the ball to the players they feel most comfortable with. Godwin and Allen are target vacuums, McCaffrey is going to score a touchdown or my name isnβt Diamond Jeff Edelstein (why should Red Hot Rasky get all the self-nickname fun?) and Barkley is probably going to touch the ball 30 times. So there. Book it.
The on-paper, no-doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
OK, this one isnβt no-doubt, but at Caesars, Iβll take the Chargers getting 4 points, the Cowboys getting 3.5 points, and the Vikings getting a field goal. Hereβs my rationale: The market is down on all three teams, and while Iβm not necessarily saying the market is wrong, I am saying I feel like weβve swerved too far.
On the Chargers’ side, their offense is (mostly) healthy, their defense has been playing very good football, and they have spent all season barely scraping by. Now theyβre facing a hot Jaguars team, but β¦ are they?
QBs the Jaguars faced since December 1
Josh Dobbs
Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel
Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler
Dak Prescott*
Ryan Tannehill
Jared Goff***23-of-30, 340 yds, 8.5 YPA, 3 TDs
** 31-of-41, 256 yds, 8.3 YPA, 2 TDs
preview Jags vs Chargers:https://t.co/HnvspE99ql
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 11, 2023
As for the Cowboys, yes, injuries were piling up, and sure, their defense has taken a step back, but β¦ would it be so shocking to see them in the Super Bowl when itβs all said and done? It wouldnβt have a month ago, and Iβm not sure we should be so quick to write them off.
As for the Vikings, well, weβve reached the bottom of βThe Vikings suck!β and the top of βWatch out for the Giants!β Add those together, take the emotion out of it, and I have a hard time seeing the Vikings losing this game.
Brian Daboll is the @NFL Coach of the year, and before you even try to argue, ask yourself- how many Giants would start on the Eagles roster? Maybe 4.pic.twitter.com/ZsckAhccKf
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) January 2, 2023
This one is looking a little fishy
Yeah, again with the Vikings. Iβm giving the 3 points and hoping to give 2.5 if at all possible. Theyβre not great, but theyβre better than the rag-tag Giants. (I think.)
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I won nothing and liked it.
DraftKings plays of the week
Can I just vent for a second? The biggest all-weekend contest DraftKings is running is a $15 entry, $400,000 prize pool. For Saturdayβs two-game slate, theyβre running a milly maker and all the regular contests. For Sundayβs three-game slate, same.
Why canβt they run a full-slate milly maker and all their regular contests? Just add it. It will fill. I hate small slates. Zero room for error.Β
FanDuel is even worse β its big six-game slate is a $9, $125,000 prize pool contest.
Boo. Boo!Β
Guess Iβll just go draft another 20 Underdog teams.
My mortal lock five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Iβm going with those Vikings. I know, I know, but really: They are an objectively better team, and Iβll give the field goal.