Some thoughts, ruminations, and belly-button gazing as we head into “Super Wild Card Weekend,” which is either going to be the most exciting football weekend of the year or the meh appetizer before the main course that is the divisional round.
Look at the potential matchups next week: Bengals at Bills, for starters. Cowboys at Eagles on the table. The Vikings at San Francisco could be a barn burner, as could the Chargers at the Chiefs.
But first, the Bengals, Cowboys, Vikings, Bills, 49ers, and Chargers have to win, which is not promised, and, in same cases, barely expected.
First up, the Bills and 49ers. Sportsbooks are all over both teams this week, with the Bills a consensus 13-point favorite over the Dolphins (at Caesars and others) and the 49ers 9.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks at DraftKings and elsewhere.
Either team losing would be a tremendous upset. Let’s move on.
Next up, the Bengals. They get Red Hot Rasky’s “team of destiny” nod, coming in third in the rankings (behind the 49ers and, of course, the Bills). They also have the backing of the books, giving 9.5 points to the Ravens at PointsBet and everywhere else. They have a moderately stiffer test against their division rival Baltimore, but the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson.
Yes, Jackson is injured, but … well, this daily update from Adam Schefter does feel just this side of snarky.
Thirty eight days after he sprained his PCL, Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson missed another practice and he is on track to miss his sixth straight game.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 11, 2023
Is Jackson milking his injury? Is he not willing to risk aggravating it, as he knows a fat contract offer is coming from the 14 or so teams that need a quarterback? Is Jackson purposefully ditching the Ravens so they won’t franchise him?
Who knows, but I kind of feel that’s what Schefter is asking.
Anyway, Bengals in a romp.
As for the Cowboys, Vikings, and Chargers?
Well, for those teams, it’s a little bit of a different tune. They’re all favored — the Chargers by 2 points over the Jaguars, the Cowboys by 2.5 points over the Buccaneers, and the Vikings by 3 points over the Giants.
And … well, let’s talk about those three teams in the teaser section below, OK?
Let’s lose some money!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Why not, right? I mean, we lost again last week, but the playoffs are a rebirth! We can do this!
And since player props have already been posted, I can dig in there and really get my parlay party rocking.
So let’s go to DraftKings and build the following: Keenan Allen, over 6.5 receptions at -130; Chris Godwin, over 7.5 receptions at +115; Christian McCaffrey, anytime touchdown at -150; and Saquon Barkley, over 99.5 rushing and receiving yards at -115. It comes in at a modest +1085, and I like it for one simple reason: It’s the playoffs, and teams are going to get the ball to the players they feel most comfortable with. Godwin and Allen are target vacuums, McCaffrey is going to score a touchdown or my name isn’t Diamond Jeff Edelstein (why should Red Hot Rasky get all the self-nickname fun?) and Barkley is probably going to touch the ball 30 times. So there. Book it.
The on-paper, no-doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
OK, this one isn’t no-doubt, but at Caesars, I’ll take the Chargers getting 4 points, the Cowboys getting 3.5 points, and the Vikings getting a field goal. Here’s my rationale: The market is down on all three teams, and while I’m not necessarily saying the market is wrong, I am saying I feel like we’ve swerved too far.
On the Chargers’ side, their offense is (mostly) healthy, their defense has been playing very good football, and they have spent all season barely scraping by. Now they’re facing a hot Jaguars team, but … are they?
QBs the Jaguars faced since December 1
Josh Dobbs
Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel
Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler
Dak Prescott*
Ryan Tannehill
Jared Goff***23-of-30, 340 yds, 8.5 YPA, 3 TDs
** 31-of-41, 256 yds, 8.3 YPA, 2 TDs
preview Jags vs Chargers:https://t.co/HnvspE99ql
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 11, 2023
As for the Cowboys, yes, injuries were piling up, and sure, their defense has taken a step back, but … would it be so shocking to see them in the Super Bowl when it’s all said and done? It wouldn’t have a month ago, and I’m not sure we should be so quick to write them off.
As for the Vikings, well, we’ve reached the bottom of “The Vikings suck!” and the top of “Watch out for the Giants!” Add those together, take the emotion out of it, and I have a hard time seeing the Vikings losing this game.
Brian Daboll is the @NFL Coach of the year, and before you even try to argue, ask yourself- how many Giants would start on the Eagles roster? Maybe 4.pic.twitter.com/ZsckAhccKf
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) January 2, 2023
This one is looking a little fishy
Yeah, again with the Vikings. I’m giving the 3 points and hoping to give 2.5 if at all possible. They’re not great, but they’re better than the rag-tag Giants. (I think.)
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I won nothing and liked it.
DraftKings plays of the week
Can I just vent for a second? The biggest all-weekend contest DraftKings is running is a $15 entry, $400,000 prize pool. For Saturday’s two-game slate, they’re running a milly maker and all the regular contests. For Sunday’s three-game slate, same.
Why can’t they run a full-slate milly maker and all their regular contests? Just add it. It will fill. I hate small slates. Zero room for error.
FanDuel is even worse — its big six-game slate is a $9, $125,000 prize pool contest.
Boo. Boo!
Guess I’ll just go draft another 20 Underdog teams.
My mortal lock five star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
I’m going with those Vikings. I know, I know, but really: They are an objectively better team, and I’ll give the field goal.
