Well, this is new and exciting.
Um, no it’s not.
As you’ll see in the accompanying video, I mistakenly thought this was the first year we went to the six-game wild card weekend. But that was last year.
Well, whatever. This is a forward-thinking column, so onward and upward, I say.
But uh … you know what? I almost think we may wake up Tuesday and start wondering if 14 teams in the playoffs is too many.
A six-game wild card weekend, first game Saturday afternoon, last game Monday night. That I’m not complaining about.
Waiting for Super Wild Card Weekend to get started like…pic.twitter.com/UrSz2NdJvZ
— Hammer DAHN (@HammerDAHN) January 12, 2022
But …
But if the games are close and exciting and nail-biting, we’ll be reading all about how the NFL hit the jackpot and how the new(ish) wild card weekend is the highlight of the football season.
Or … the teams that really shouldn’t be there on paper — I’m looking at you, Steelers, Raiders and Eagles — will embarrass themselves in 45-10 blowouts and we’ll all be pining for the days of three division champs who get byes and are joined by two wild card teams. (Remember those days? I remember those days.)
I hope, for the sake of the NFL and the 20 or so hours I’m going to be ignoring my family, that it’s the former.
Enough with the preamble. It’s the playoffs. Let’s (bleeping) go.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Yeah, I’m crazy enough to do this. I mean, I was a profitable 1-17 on the year doing this bit (if only I could’ve won a second time!), so why not? Here goes: Gimme the Chiefs -12.5, the Bucs -8.5, and the over in both the Bills-Patriots (42.5) and the Cowboys-49ers (50.5).
Rationale? The Chiefs at home easily handle Big Ben, the Bucs defense is going to similarly handle Jalen Hurts, the 49ers and Cowboys have too many playmakers, and as far as the Bills-Patriots goes, well, I needed to get up over +1000. We’re at +1200 on DraftKings. Good luck and godspeed.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Had the Colts here last week! HAHAHAHAHA!
This week, easy pickins over at Caesars: Chiefs -6.5, Bucs -2.5, and over 44.5 in the Cowboys-49ers game. This one feels like stealing.
Is there a more obvious teaser this week than Chiefs -6.5, Bucs -2.5, and over 44.5 in the Dallas-San Francisco game? (This tweet will self-destruct sometime Sunday.)
— Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) January 12, 2022
DraftKings DFS play(s) of the week
Short slate playoff DFS is, in my opinion, tough. All the plays are good, and the desire is to cover as many bases as possible. But that’s not smart. As a tournament player, I think it’s best to narrow it down, play small field stuff, and take a few wild swings in big tournaments.
So: The core plays are kind of obvious: Brady and Mahomes at quarterback, Joe Mixon at running back, Cooper Kupp and a stupid cheap Mike Evans at wideout. Also, Tyreek Hill is priced down to $7.1K, and I expect him to be the highest-owned player on the slate. Tight end is stacked. You can go any which way.
So where are the wild swings? First one is a Steelers stack. No, I don’t think the Steelers are going to win, but if the Big Ben fairy tale continues, it’s going to be through Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris. Throw Ben in there for a very low-owned stack.
The Eagles present a similar opportunity. Again, I think they get waxed, but also again, if they manage to surprise, it’s almost certainly coming through Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
I also think, generally speaking, the Cardinals and Rams players are going to be under-owned, just by virtue of them playing Monday night.
As far as single players go, pricing on DraftKings is relatively loose, so plenty of folks won’t be dumpster diving, but Cedrick Wilson at $4.4K in the slot role is a bargain, and (if healthy) both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Leonard Fournette might come in a little lower owned than they should be because of the uncertainty surrounding their injuries.
Underdog I like best to win outright
It’s between the Cardinals and Patriots. Hard to go against Belichick though. Gimme the Pats. Best odds I found early in the week was at Unibet at +172.
Player props I like
Check back later in the week.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Finished 9-9 in the regular season. Boo. Let’s go Chiefs -12.5 here.
Official predictions
Like, these are officially official. I registered them with the government.
Patriots 20, Bills 14
Bengals 34, Raiders 21
Bucs 28, Eagles 11
Cowboys 34, 49ers 31
Chiefs 37, Steelers 10
Rams 27, Cardinals 24
