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What’s On Tap: NFL Week 4, Clemson-N.C. State, And MLB Pennant Push

Three unbeaten teams remain in the NFL; Aaron Judge needs two more HRs to break Maris' record

Matt Rybaltowski by Matt Rybaltowski
September 26, 2022
in Industry, Sports
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Each week, our β€œWhat’s on Tap” series previews the week ahead in theΒ world of sports betting. Come here for a summary of upcoming financial happenings, legislative and regulatory meetings, industry conferences, top games scheduled for the week, and much more.Β Also, check out our weekly reviewΒ β€œGet a Grip” for a look back at last week’s notable news.Β 

Monday, Sept. 26

Judge hits the road for record-tying attempt

Aaron Judge only had two at-bats in the New York Yankees’ rain-shortened win over the Red Sox on Sunday night and remains stuck on 60 home runs. Judge needs one more homer to tie Roger Maris’ American League and Yankees franchise record of 61 in a season β€” but the prohibitive MVP favorite has now gone five games without a home run.

Judge’s next chance to tie, or possibly break, Maris’ record comes on Monday night when the Yankees face the Blue Jays in Toronto. With 10 games left in the regular season, Judge has odds of -20000 to finish the season with over 61.5 home runs at PointsBet. There are odds of +10000 for Judge to end the regular season without another homer.

Back on July 30, BetMGM had odds of +140 for Judge to go over 61.5 home runs on the season. Judge has nine home runs in the month of September.

Aaron Judge has 42 home runs, tied for the 3rd-most in MLB history through July per @ESPNStatsInfo.

How many HRs will Judge hit this season (@BetMGM)

β–ͺ️ OVER 61.5 (+140)
β–ͺ️ UNDER 61.5 (-165)

— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) July 31, 2022

Giants host Cowboys in NFC East matchup

After losses by Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay on Sunday, there are only three unbeaten teams left in the NFL. If you picked the Giants to finish as the league’s last team to lose a game, you’re drawing live to a huge payout, as should the Giants defeat the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, Brian Daboll’s team will join the Dolphins and Eagles as the only teams to enter Week 4 undefeated.

New York is a 1-point favorite over the Cowboys at BetRivers, and the total is 39.5 points. The Giants could be without wide receiver Kadarius Toney, who missed the final two days of practice this week with a hamstring injury. Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (knee) could make his season debut on Monday night. The Cowboys have odds of +550 at BetRivers to win the NFC East, while the Giants are the third choice at +650.

One key for the Giants to stay unbeaten is finding a way to contain Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons. Through Week 2, Parsons either led or tied for the league lead in several defensive categories, including sacks and QB hits.

Micah Parsons ranks this season

NFL Rank
Sacks 4.0 1st
QB Hits 7 t-1st
Tackles for Loss 4 t-1st
Pressures 13 t-1st

Yeah @MicahhParsons11 coming for that DPOY pic.twitter.com/0UfkvIK0P9

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 20, 2022

Thursday, Sept. 29

Bengals look to knock Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten

Much like the Giants, the Dolphins were not a popular pick to make it to late September undefeated. But the Fins edged the Super Bowl favorite Bills on Sunday in an intense 21-19 victory. If Miami upends defending AFC champion Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football, the Dolphins will move to 4-0 for the first time since 1995,Β when Dan Marino started at quarterback and Don Shula roamed the sidelines.

The Bengals captured their first win of the 2022 season with a 27-12 victory over the Jets. Sacked 11 times in the Bengals’ first two games, Joe Burrow was sacked only twice against the Jets. The Bengals are 3-point home favorites at Circa Sports.

Saturday, Oct. 1

Clemson takes on N.C. State in top-10 matchup

Clemson survived an upset scare on Saturday when the Tigers outlasted Wake Forest 51-45 in double overtime. Now, Dabo Swinney and the Tigers welcome N.C. State in another key ACC matchup. The Tigers and Wolfpack have met 86 times over the years, but never before with both ranked in the top 10. On Sunday, N.C. State entered the top 10 (at No. 10) for the first time since 2002 following a dominating 41-10 win over UConn.

The Tigers will need to contain N.C. State running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. Through four games, the sophomore has easily shed opposing fronts while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Clemson allowed 447 yards of offense against the Demon Deacons, but most of that came through the air. Clemson is a 6.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, and the total is 46.5 points.

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye BULLIES his way to the endzone. 😀

(πŸŽ₯: @BallySportsSO)pic.twitter.com/sIVGZzLF8U

— theScore (@theScore) September 24, 2022

Elsewhere, No. 2 Alabama will travel to Fayetteville to take on No. 20 Arkansas. The Crimson Tide are 16.5-point favorites at SuperBook Sports. Previously ranked No. 10 in the nation, Arkansas fell to Texas A&M 23-21 when Cam Little’s 42-yard field goal attempt hit the right upright with 1:30 left. Also, No. 9 Oklahoma State will look to remain undefeated when the Cowboys take on Baylor in Waco. Baylor is a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel.

Mets face Braves with deGrom on the hill

Both the Mets and Braves appear likely to surpass 100 wins on the season, but one team will win the National League East while the other will head to the playoffs as a wild card. The Braves edged the Phillies 8-7 in 11 innings on Sunday afternoon but still trail the Mets by 1.5 games.

The teams will meet for a critical weekend series in Atlanta, with Mets ace Jacob deGrom set to start on Saturday. DeGrom is coming off a rare poor outing in which he gave up five runs in four innings to the A’s. After giving up only seven earned runs in his first seven starts of the season, deGrom has allowed 11 in his last three. The Mets have odds of -425 at DraftKings to win the NL East, while the Braves are +300 to repeat as division champs. The Mets are also the third-shortest choice to win the World Series (+500), two spots ahead of the Braves, who have odds of +900 to win back-to-back titles.

For the first time since the spring of 2017, New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has allowed three runs in the straight games, and counting.
DeGrom has a 6.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his last three games (vs. Cubs, Pirates, A's).https://t.co/gXMHrqermL

— Fastball on Sports Illustrated/FanNation (@FastballFN) September 25, 2022

Sunday, Oct. 2

Bills, Chiefs look to rebound from first defeats of the season

Ahead of the season, the Bills and the Chiefs opened as the top two choices to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Both teams got off to 2-0 starts, but both suffered stinging last-minute defeats in an upset-filled Week 3. Both face serious tests in Week 4, as the Bills meet the Ravens in Baltimore and the Chiefs face the Bucs in a rematch of Super Bowl LV.

The Bills are 3-point favorites over the Ravens at DraftKings, while the Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites over the Bucs on Sunday Night Football. Despite losing in Miami, the Bills are still the favorite at +400 at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are the second choice at DraftKings, with odds of +750. The Eagles (+850), Packers (+900), and Bucs (+1000) round out the top 5.

Key injuries heading into Week 4 of the NFL regular season:

  • Vikings running back Dalvin Cook left Sunday’s win over the Lions with a shoulder injury in the third quarter. Cook told coach Kevin O’Connell that he should be ready to play in Week 4 against the Saints. O’Connell deemed Cook to be day-to-day. Minnesota travels to London this week to face New Orleans. The Vikings are 2.5-point favorites over the Saints at WynnBET.
  • New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones limped off the field in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens after throwing an interception on the Pats’ final offensive play. Jones struggled to put weight on his left foot following a hit by Ravens defensive lineman Calais Campbell. When asked Monday if the Patriots plan to place Jones on injured reserve, coach Bill Belichick said the team does not have an update on Jones’ long-term status. The Patriots travel to Green Bay to face the Packers on Sunday. The line has jumped four to five points in the Packers’ favor at numerous sportsbooks, and Green Bay was a 9.5-point favorite over New England as of Monday morning at SI Sportsbook.

The AP shots of Mac Jones being carried down the tunnel aren't pretty. pic.twitter.com/0tXSdxa9Ps

— Chris Mason (@ByChrisMason) September 25, 2022

  • Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa left Sunday’s game against the Jaguars with a groin injury in the first quarter. The Chargers are one of the most injury-depleted teams in the league, as wideout Keenan Allen, tackle Rashawn Slater, and corner J.C. Jackson are also dealing with ailments, and quarterback Justin Herbert played through a rib injury in the 38-10 loss to Jacksonville. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite over the Texans at Unibet.
  • 49ers tackle Trent Williams left Sunday night’s loss to the Broncos with a high-ankle sprain. In Williams’ absence, the Niners’ offense sputtered for the remainder of the game. The 49ers are 1.5-point home favorites over the Rams at PointsBet.

Have a good week, everyone!

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Matt Rybaltowski

Matt Rybaltowski

Matt is a veteran writer with a specific focus on the emerging sports gambling market. During Matt's two decade career in journalism, he has written for the New York Times, Forbes, The Guardian, Reuters and CBSSports.com among others. In his spare time, Matt is an avid reader, a weekend tennis player and a frequent embarrassment to the sport of running. Contact Matt at [email protected]

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