• About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling
This site contains commercial content
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
    • Guide To ‘Risk-Free’ Bets
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
    • Guide To ‘Risk-Free’ Bets
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
No Result
View All Result

Sports Betting And Injuries In College Football: Separating Good Information From Noise

Robert Mann by Robert Mann
September 19, 2018
in Sports
cfb sports betting injuries handicapping
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Many serious college and professional football bettors have long believed that it’s imperative to consider injuries before pushing the cash across the counter or hitting the “make bet” button on the phone app or computer. Others believe bookmakers have built injuries into the offered betting lines, rendering monitoring of injuries a waste of time and effort.

Although injury information can sometimes be sparse or inaccurate, perhaps attributable to coaching gamesmanship, lots of experienced bettors believe when money is at stake, you’d better pay attention.

Right now in collegiate athletics, there is no conference that provides injury information on its players, in part due to concerns over privacy laws. However in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling in May striking down the federal ban on full-fledged sports wagering outside Nevada, numerous coaches and NCAA athletic directors in major and minor conferences have signaled a tide turn and the possible if not likely future sharing of injury reports.

Sports Betting And College Football Injuries: Reporting Not Yet Mandated But Coming; What to Do With Available Information and ‘Cluster Injuries’ When Betting CFB

college football betting injury reporting big 10 wisconsin
Wisconsin Badgers’ Camp Randall Stadium.

The NCAA has not yet announced formal plans for a new injury reporting protocol, as legal experts and university compliance officers study this issue that’s certainly more complex for college football than the NFL, which has a mandated reporting system. A similar system of regular in-depth reports in the NCAA would have the obstacle of privacy for younger athletes.

Savvy bettors when studying the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) have, for the past ten years, relied on that conference’s official injury report. The ACC was the only major conference that did so each week before league games. However, the report’s release was regarded as a gentlemen’s agreement and not an enforceable rule. The league coaches voted in May to stop issuing the injury report to see if and when the NCAA makes a decision on requiring the release of such information by all member schools.

To address college football injuries (we’ll tackle the pro game in an additional installment), Sports Handle spoke to veteran Las Vegas handicapper, bettor, radio host and sport wagering historian Arne K. Lang. (Lang is author of “Sports Betting and Bookmaking – An American History” and current editor of “The Sweet Science,” a boxing website.)

“More and more head coaches, such as Mike Leach at Washington State simply deflects all injuries questions acting like it’s a Pentagon secret and now more and more coaches are following suit,” Lang said. “On the other hand, Florida State would give out an injury report that downplayed injuries treating a broken leg as if it were a hangnail. But their long laundry list of injuries was not trustworthy.”

The Most Underrated, Under-appreciated Unit In College Football Handicapping

florida state offensive line sports betting injury handicapping
FSU’s offensive line is in shambles.

In today’s world, every team has dedicated reporters who puts out all manner of information, Lang said. After you find various bloggers you trust and have allowed for the fact that many are “homers,” viewing all team information through that lens, then you have to learn what to do with the information.

“In college football the most underrated unit is the offensive line, so I advise new bettors to pay close attention to that,” Lang said. “A key element in processing your injury information is ‘cluster injuries,’ especially those along the offensive line. That doesn’t mean players next to each other on the offensive line, that means any starter(s) on the offensive line.”

Lang cites a key element pointed out by the handicapping publication “The Gold Sheet” from 50 years ago that more often than not, injuries to linemen, linebackers and the defensive backs can be more detrimental to a team than an injury to a key player because those players work together as a unit and a loss of that teamwork can really hurt the team. “I’d advise bettors to look for these kinds of injuries,” he said.

“To me, two injuries to starters on the offensive line really devastates a team because cohesion is needed for solid play,” he said.

Lang further advises to read (online) the local papers and even the school papers of college teams you may want to bet on to help gather injury information. 

Putting Your Fingers on the Right Beat

Regarding specializing on a league or team, Lang said if you want to beat college football that’s a solid tact to take. He said, “There are so many teams and leagues now, it’s impossible to pay close enough attention to all of them. New teams on the betting board such as Coastal Carolina and many others almost make specialization for the serious player a necessity.

“In theory, your bookmaker is going to have a bad line on a Coastal Carolina or a Louisiana Lafayette rather than on a big name school,” Lang advised. However, he said he is reminded of the thoughts of the late Las Vegas handicapper Dave Malinsky who always said “randomness” seems to have a great impact on the lesser teams than the better ones. “That works against you when betting the lower-level teams,” Lang said.

“If you can find a league that’s not prominent where the local paper allows free access to its stories, that’s a good path to follow.”

Lang also addressed the question of whether there’s a formula that gives you a set number of points to deduct for an injured quarterback. “There’s no formula. Some quarterbacks are worth four points and some are only worth half a point.”

“The linemaker always has built the injury to a key player, such as a quarterback into his line, so he’s already done that part of the handicapping equation. My theory is to bet a team that has lost a key player, not the next week, but the week after that. The team with the injuries will overachieve that next week to win or cover. But, if they do, they are likely in for a letdown after that, if those players are out. Then, it’s time to come in against them.”

Other advice for bettors from Lang includes keeping in mind that handicapping college football is an “inexact science.” He also warns that sometimes watching the games themselves can be counter productive. A team is usually not as good as it may have showed the week before or as bad as it was the week before. Thus, studying statistics (a box score) can be more valuable, sometimes, than watching all the games, he said. Often a box score and play-by-play can better reveal the flow of a game, so it’s important to look beneath the obvious to decipher exactly when scoring was produced and the score at the time.

But don’t be fooled by cheap stats recorded when a game was already out of hand, he cautions.


Next time: Handicapping injuries in the NFL.

Share1TweetShare
Robert Mann

Robert Mann

Sports Handle contributor Robert Mann has a Northwestern journalism degree and is a former reporter for the Chicago Tribune and National Enquirer. He has worked in news management for CNN and several TV stations and is a 31-year resident of Las Vegas.

Related Posts

© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Promotions

BetMGM Bonus Code: HANDLETOP – $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for CFP National Championship

January 9, 2023
© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Promotions

bet365 Ohio Promo Code for Peach Bowl: Pre-Register for $100 in Bet Credits at Launch

December 31, 2022
Load More

Top Stories

garnett mgm springfield

Sports Betting Launches In Massachusetts, Giving Three Retail Books A Head Start

January 31, 2023
rob gronkowski adam vinatieri

Rob Gronkowski Goes Training Montage Route In Latest FanDuel Spot

January 17, 2023
fanatics-grand-opening

Fanatics Sportsbook At FedEx Field Offers Unique Retail Option In Maryland

January 23, 2023
Shutterstock

Missouri Legislators Lament Exodus Of Bettors To Neighboring States

January 27, 2023

State Sports Betting Guides

Ohio (U.S. state) flag waving against clear blue sky, close up, isolated with clipping path mask alpha channel transparency, perfect for film, news, composition

Ohio Sports Betting – Where To Play, Bonus Offers And Promo Codes

by Brian Pempus
January 31, 2023

Downtown Detroit at twilight (Shutterstock)

Michigan Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
February 1, 2023

VA captial

Virginia Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonus Offers

by Brett Smiley
January 17, 2023

nj flag

New Jersey Sports Betting — Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
October 20, 2022

pa online sportsbooks

Pennsylvania Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonuses

by Brett Smiley
October 6, 2022

Canada Sports Betting Guides

Canada Sports Betting – Best Sportsbook Apps & Bonus Offers

British Columbia Sports Betting – Legal Update, Available Sportsbooks, and FAQ

Ontario Sports Betting – Legal Status And Where To Play

gambling therapy
ncpg
igaming ontario
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/OH/PA/WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).
19+. Please play responsibly. Terms and conditions apply. 
Individuals must be 19 years of age or older to participate in igaming in Ontario. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you, or someone you know, has a gambling problem in Ontario and wants help, please visit ConnexOntario or call their helpline at 1-866-531-2600. Operators on this website operate pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario.

Search Sports Handle

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling

No Result
View All Result
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
    • Guide To ‘Risk-Free’ Bets
  • News

loading

Please wait while you are redirected to the right page...

Please share your location to continue.

Check our help guide for more info.

share your location