I couldnβt wait to turn 21 (approximately 100 years ago). It was going to be a game-changer. Being able to go to any bar whenever I wanted? Come on. The best.
And so when I — and my friends — started turning 21, we would hit the bars! And close them down! And drink our faces off! And do it again the next day! And not be able to hear each other talk! And look at girls, but not talk to them! Fun!
And you know what we stopped doing? Hanging out in dorm rooms, or in backyards, in smaller groups, laughing it up, breaking into impromptu games of Zonk (it involved five dice and a bong), ordering Dominoβs, drinking a few beers, and actually having fun.
Ainβt that just life, though? You think the thing you donβt have is more fun than the thing you do have, and when you eventually get the thing you donβt have you end up being a little — or a lot — wistful for the thing you used to have. Or, as Jerry Garcia put it (those Zonk memories are flooding back ), βthe grass ainβt greener, the wine ainβt sweeter, on either side of the hill.β
Yeah. Well, this is pretty much the way I feel about the Super Bowl these days. Sure, Iβm going to watch it. Yes, Iβm going to bet on it. Of course Iβm going to build some DraftKings Showdown lineups. But overall? Thanks to the surfeit of options I just laid out — none of which existed 10 years ago — the Super Bowl just feels like another day on the sporting calendar.Β
Back in the day, it was the best day of sports betting for the general public. Weβd enter a bunch of box pools, maybe make a side wager with a friend, and β¦ that was it. And it was enough.Β
Today? Sure, thereβs a million options, but really, thereβs a million options every day. I poured more energy into placing a two-leg NBA parlay Monday (Jordan Poole over 3.5 turnovers and Jaden Ivey over 4.5 assists, #humblebrag) than I have on the Super Bowl so far. That can wait until Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning. Between now and then, I have a ton of NBA action, Iβll dabble in some NCAA, the Waste Management Phoenix Open is loaded, thereβs an MMA card, and Iβll probably wake up one morning to discover myself building some EPL lineups.
Some do, some don’t
βI think for the average sports fan, the average sports bettor, sure, itβs still big,β noted sports bettor Gadoon βSpankyβ Kryollos told me. βYou feel like you have to bet the Super Bowl. Itβs an Americana thing. But once you start getting some type of clue about sports betting, then you realize, βYou know what, what am I doing messing around with this when I can get some low-hanging fruit from the bookmakers?’ On a Saturday thereβs 120 college basketball games and they canβt be right on all 120, but I guarantee you theyβre as right as they can be on that one football game.β
In short: To some sports bettors, the Super Bowl is β¦ just another day on the sports betting calendar.Β
Rufus Peabody had a bit of a similar take on a recent episode of the Gamble On podcast, where he said, βI was actually thinking about skipping the Super Bowl this year. Yes, weβre getting seven figures down, but the amount weβre betting on the Super Bowl relative to just a regular week isnβt that crazy, and it would make up less than 2 percent of our yearly volume, and itβs a one-off where Iβm putting a lot of effort on something that isnβt going to compound.β
New #GambleOn! @RufusPeabody joins us to talk @UnabatedSports, Buddhism, and (maybe) break Super Bowl news, plus @jeffedelstein & I cover NY iCasino/poker, books bungling Bengals-Chiefs lines, A.C. casino smoking, and Bengals & Locks β er, Bagels & Locks: https://t.co/nAwyNJkSdN
— Eric Raskin + (@EricRaskin) January 25, 2023
For Spanky, itβs even less of a consideration.
βIβll bet some things here and there, but for the week, what we bet on the Super Bowl? It will probably be a hundredth of a percent of what we bet for the year,β he said. βCompletely insignificant. Itβs nothing.β
To be fair, not all pros have βturned 21β on the Super Bowl. In fact, Capt. Jack Andrews is firmly on the other side.
βThereβs so much ancillary betting that happens with props now that Super Bowl Sunday feels like drinking from a fire hose,β Andrews said. βIf it was just one game it probably would run the risk of not holding our attention. However, itβs 500-plus games all centered around the same outcome. When you mix in cross-sport props keyed to NBA and NHL contests that day, it really turns into an all-day spectacular of betting.β
To be fair, Andrews ainβt wrong. The prop menu for the game is exhaustive. And exhausting. And while someone like Andrews probably has an algorithm for figuring out if itβs +EV to bet on Kadarius Toney being the first to rush for 20 yards at +9000 or if 2.5 is the right over/under for the total number of extra points by Jake Elliott, I can tell you that I donβt. Sure, Iβll fire off a few props for fun, but for profit? Thereβs a PGA Showdown slate to figure out.
‘Like Christmas’
βI donβt know if the Super Bowl will ever get old,β said Jay Kornegay, the executive vice president of race and sportsbook operations at Las Vegasβ Westgate SuperBook. βThis will be my 35th Super Bowl being in the sports gaming business, and I see no signs of this slowing down. Itβs a great mixture of excitement.
“The βsharpsβ see opportunities due to the volatility of props and how recreational play can create perceived value for those educated players. The general public always treat it like itβs Christmas. Iβm not sure if itβs the wagering — the game, props, squares, office pools, etc. — or another opportunity to βcelebrate.β Itβs probably a little of both.β
Man, after hearing that, Iβm starting to feel a little bah-humbuggy. Maybe — well, definitely — Iβm in the minority on this one. The Super Bowl is practically the High Holy Day on the American secular calendar. Far be it from me to ruin it for everyone else.
But honestly, from a gambling perspective, Iβm kind of over it. It really is just another day. I donβt need the fire hose Sunday when Iβve got a steady stream every other day of the year.
I guess when it comes down to it, I just miss the innocence of spending $20 on a few boxes and another $20 on a friendly wager. Legalized sports betting — while super duper fun for the other 364 days of the year, make no mistake — has somehow taken some of the fun out of the Super Bowl. At least for me.Β
Sorry.
But while Iβm here β¦ anyone have any good XFL takes? Starting to think DraftKings is going to offer some pretty big DFS contests next week.