Editor’s note: The following article comes courtesy a professional sports bettor, AKA Stevie Middles.
The Super Bowl is nothing special or super for professional bettors. Just another game with probably as much action as any other playoff or regular season game.
The props went up in Vegas last week and sharps/wiseguys/quants (“SWQ”) feasted on the opening numbers. Normally most Vegas books discourage action from SWQ’s but the pre-Super Bowl weeks are Christmas in January. Sharps welcome!
Alas, for those pros outside of Nevada, props weren’t available until the Monday of Super Bowl week. These prop lines had already been smoothed out and were generally devoid of value.
Super Bowl betting opportunities have changed
Years ago there were weekend-of-game inefficiencies in the Super Bowl prop market, but that world is mostly gone.
Still I may have a few props as “TV plays,” but none for serious amounts. Mostly “NOs”: and Unders, shorting the public’s love of “YES” and Overs.
There is one Super Bowl position that many SWQ’s will have going for them. A decent middle of NE Pick/+1 and Rams +3. The first part was created within minutes (seconds actually) of the finish of the New England- Kansas City AFC Conference Championship final.
The Rams opened at -1 or Pick in the world-wide market, and many sharps hit those numbers big, playing New England at +1 or Pick. This wasn’t some power match-up analysis or special love for New England –sharps thought that the public money would later pour in on New England — a prediction that the NE line would rise, with the hope that a favorable Rams counter-bet could be made by game time.
Well, they were spot on. The line went to NE -2.5 that night and has held steady or higher so far. Rams +3 has popped up from time to time in various locations, and it seems that the public remains enthralled with Brady and Belichick.
Fashionably, or rather professionally late
Now on a personal level, Super Bowl week is when guys I know come out of the woodwork and call seeking a sharp opinion — and maybe some help getting down. Folks ask “who ya got” and it’s difficult to explain the concept of a “middle.” I’ve heard, “Why would anybody bet on both sides?”
I’m also the last guy to arrive at the Super Bowl party, as I don’t want to miss the halftime market. So in recap:
New England +1
Hope the game lands, or at least the middle is potentially in play during the 4th quarter. Otherwise, the pros lose some juice and start playing the college hoops overnight market, as the Lombardi trophy is handed out.
Stay tuned for more contributions from “Steve Morris.”