In a week that saw four double-digit spreads and some road teams in tough venues, the underdogs thoroughly dominated favorites in a wild NFL week 6. Parity has defined NFL in recent seasons, but 2017 represents the parity pinnacle.
That reality was highlighted by the left-for-dead Miami Dolphins’ (+13) outright victory at the Atlanta Falcons, and the winless New York Giants’ manhandling of the Denver Broncos at Mile High. Here is the against-the-spread record (and other records) for Week 6 and year-to-date, courtesy OddsShark. Then we’ll get to the SuperContest selections and movement in the standings:
- Underdogs vs. Favorites (ATS): 11-3 (Year to Date: 52-36-2)
- Home vs. Away (ATS): 6-9 (Year to Date: 40-46-2)
- Over/Under record: 8-6 (Year to Date: 45-46-1)
- Straight up Underdog Wins: 9 (Year to Date: 39)
Las Vegas Westgate SuperContest in NFL Week 6: Underdogs Hammer Favorites
Here’s a snapshot at the most popular Week 6 picks among the field of 2,748 in the $1,500 per-entry contest that will pay over $1 million to the winner (courtesy FantasySuperContest):
- Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 at Kansas City Chiefs (993 picks) (Win)
- Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings (970) (Loss)
- Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans Saints (779) (Loss)
- Denver Broncos -11.5 vs. New York Giants (716) (Loss)
- Los Angeles Rams +1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (701) (Win)
- Atlanta Falcons -11.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (644) (loss)
That’s a 2-4 record by the most popular selections with two of those losses in straight up losses by teams favored by double digits. Whew! Time for the Falcons and Broncos to look in the mirror and figure out what they are: Pretenders or contenders.
Overall, contestants scored an average 2.39 correct picks, down a tick from the 2.48 they collected last week. Obviously Aaron Rodgers’ devastating injury, a broken collarbone sustained on a tackle by Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr, loomed large and shifts the balance of the power in the wide-open NFC. Rodgers’ collarbone required surgery and may keep the star quarterback out for the remainder of the season.
The popular Steelers bounced back after a dismal performance in a 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars in Week 5.. A banged-up Chiefs team (aren’t they all) could not contain the Steelers’ running game and a resurgent Le’Veon Bell. Meanwhile the Lions got steamrolled by the Saints (back pat to myself for the Friday TPS Report) — although they did nearly come back from a 35-point deficit with four consecutive second half touchdowns. Never get comfortable in any game involving the Lions.
As for the SuperContest standings, we have a new leader: “TUNNEL VISION” with a 24-6 season mark. Last week’s leader, CALI CAPPERS, dropped to 8th place with a 3-2 week (losses on Buccaneers and the Colts). But with a 23-7 record, CAPPERS remains in striking distance with more than half of the season remaining. Previous leader “PHD Sports” scored a 4-1 week (loss on Raiders) and two games behind TUNNEL VISION.
What the heck will Week 7 bring?! With underdogs rolling at a 59% win rate, probably more focus on the pups.