With about 90% of the 2023 MLB season completed, the three-team race in the AL West is one of the tightest divisional competitions of the past half-century.
Just two days ago, oddsmakers for the major mobile sportsbooks were virtually conceding the division to the Houston Astros, who were around -500 at most sites despite a rather small cushion over the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. That was before Houston dropped two to the lowly Oakland A’s, Texas won two over the competitive Toronto Blue Jays, and Seattle split the first two games of its series with the Los Angeles Angels.
Now the defending World Series champions are just a game up on the Rangers, who have never won a World Series, and 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners, who have never even been to one. And naturally, the odds have tightened considerably in a span of 48 hours.
As of Wednesday morning, here were the three teams’ records and the most favorable divisional odds available in legal betting states for their backers using any one of six of the most common available sites: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, Barstool Sportsbook, and BetRivers:
Houston (82-64): -180 (DraftKings, BetRivers)
Texas (80-64): +500 (Caesars)
Seattle (80-65): +360 (FanDuel)
Those are just the most recent odds in a race that has been fluctuating daily in the one division every baseball fan can enjoy paying attention to throughout September.
2023 AL West odds: Astros favored over Mariners, Rangers in historically close division race entering September https://t.co/PffVJ5xDiP via @SportsLine #MLB #MLBTwitter #Astros #Mariners #StraightUpTX
— SportsLine Fantasy (@SportsLineDFS) September 1, 2023
Can the Rangers’ rebound last?
One thing that jumps out in the above odds is how Seattle, while a half-game behind Texas, is deemed more likely to overcome the Astros, which is true at all of the sites. That could be because the Mariners have generally played stronger ball since the start of August, a month in which their 21 wins paced MLB and were the most in franchise history.
Until this past weekend, the Rangers were generally considered in free fall. A team that peaked at 40-20 on June 6 and spent 150 days this season in first place in the division had been beset by injuries and stumbled since mid-August, getting hammered in a sweep by the Astros a week ago and falling three games behind. That was before the Rangers’ current four-game win streak over first the A’s and now the Blue Jays.
As recently as Monday, Texas could still be bet to win the West at a return as high as +1700 at FanDuel. That site now has the Rangers +440, which is a lesser return than Caesars but more or less the norm.
And while Houston is still clearly favored — much more than would be typical for a team with two contenders so tight on its heels — it’s nothing like the start of the week, when the club had a 2.5-game lead and six upcoming games in back-to-back series with Oakland and the just-as-woeful Kansas City Royals. But the A’s upset such notions by winning games Monday and Tuesday by a combined 10-2 score, even though Houston used top starters Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
Now maybe the Astros’ three upcoming games in Kansas City over the weekend don’t necessarily look so appealing, either. Part of the reason Houston remains such a clear favorite is it statistically has the softest schedule remaining — with three more at home against the Royals later this month — but as they say, “Baseball, y’know?”
There’s always the wild card, too
In a scheduling sense, the Mariners seem to have the biggest say over their destiny. They end the season with three games at Texas, three hosting Houston, and four more hosting the Rangers. A winning record in those 10 may not guarantee a divisional title, but it would very likely boost the team’s chances of getting one of three wild card slots.
The oddsmakers place the Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays in a competitive race for the final two wild card slots, on the assumption that Houston will be in the playoffs one way or another and Tampa Bay will get the top wild card in finishing behind Baltimore in the AL East.
DraftKings, Caesars, and Barstool all make Texas -300 for a “will make the playoffs” wager, with DraftKings offering +250 to bet against it.
Seattle is also favored to make the playoffs in some form, with a bettor best off using the -235 from FanDuel (DraftKings offers +200 on the “no”).
Toronto, whose 80-65 record is tied with Seattle one-half game behind Texas, is -175 to make the playoffs at DraftKings.
None of the three AL West contenders really wants to hear any wild card talk right now, however.
In Houston’s case, the team simply wants to keep doing what it’s been doing since the start of July, scoring more runs than any team in baseball, and has been doing since 2017 — it’s won every divisional title since then except in COVID-shortened 2020.
Texas, with ace Nathan Eovaldi back from injury and trade deadline-acquired Max Scherzer seemingly ready for the stretch run, hopes key hitters continue coming out of August slumps while Corey Seager keeps putting up numbers that would seem MVP-caliber if not for Shohei Ohtani.
And Seattle will count on young slugger Julio Rodriguez repeating his AL August Player of the Month performance in the final weeks and its stellar young pitching staff holding up late into the season.
It all makes for the one fun-to-watch divisional race in all of MLB, and as we’ve already seen, one certain to be volatile each week — or even day — in the eyes and odds of the bookmakers.
