Shortly after the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in February’s Super Bowl, the Book at Baldini’s near Reno, Nevada, opened its outright market for the 2022 Masters, assigning Tiger Woods 100/1 odds to claim a record-tying sixth green jacket.
If Woods were to play, he’d be doing so after a horrific car accident that kept him off the course for over a year and left him with an extremely fragile right leg. In light of Woods’ precarious situation, Baldini’s sportsbook director, Robert Kowalksi, said there was virtually no betting interest in the 46-year-old, even at such a fat price.
Then came Woods’ Tuesday morning announcement that he was likely to play in this week’s tournament, which gets underway Thursday.
“He makes his announcement and I now have more money bet into my Masters pool than at any time in our history here at Baldini’s,” Kowalski said Wednesday. “I’m stunned. I’ve had discussion with my colleagues forever about how much Tiger means to this game and to the betting pools. It’s insatiable. I keep putting up more and more props, and it’s just on Tiger. I could put up plenty of matchups — Spieth against Morikawa — they’re not betting it. It’s all Tiger.”
But while mobile sportsbooks like PointsBet lowered their odds on a Woods win from 80/1 to 50/1 in the space of 24 hours, Kowalski has thus far declined to drop his price below 72/1.
“I want all the Tiger Woods money, so if Tiger Woods wins this, I’m going to have a long conversation with the owner of the casino,” he half-joked, expressing his confidence that Woods won’t win. “In the meantime, the prices on the other contenders are very friendly. I have Rahm at 13/1, Spieth at 20/1, Morikawa at 16/1. The prices are still pretty juicy with less than 24 hours to go [before the first round starts], but the money’s still flowing to Tiger.”
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‘Biggest liability on a golfer maybe in history’
Baldini’s might be a relatively small, local operation, but the aftershocks of Woods’ decision to tee up at Augusta are being felt by behemoths like Caesars, where Assistant Director of Trading Adam Pullen said, “Most likely, we’re gonna go into the tournament with Tiger as our only liability.”
While Pullen said this is “a good position for a bookmaker to be in,” he added, “If [Woods] does pull it off, a lot of sportsbook operators are going to be crying a little bit, because it’s going to be the biggest liability on a golfer maybe in history. The [long] odds definitely get people more excited.”
And how.
“Tiger action in the last 24 hours has been like nothing we have ever seen before,” said PointsBet Trading Analyst Mike Korn. “He is currently doubling any other golfer in terms of handle and tripling any golfer in terms of bet count.”
As of Wednesday morning, data provided to Sports Handle showed that PointsBet’s liability on Woods was seven times that of its second-biggest liability (Kevin Kisner at 150/1). One of its customers wagered $7,500 on Woods, seeking a $450,000 profit.
When asked if he’d seen anything similar to the betting frenzy that’s ensued in the wake of Woods’ announcement, Korn said, “I would say something similar would have been the amount of bets that came in on the Bucs after Brady announced he would be coming out of retirement. But even that isn’t close to the Tiger mania over the last 24 hours.”
Rooting for Tiger this week because 1) it’s an impressive physical comeback and 2) I’m tired of people saying any Tiger bet is a bad bet.
They probably are bad bets! But what recreational bettor hasn’t placed a bet with their heart over their head. Isn’t that part of the fun?
— Bennett Conlin (@BennettConlin) April 6, 2022
“Usually, we are used to odds swinging the other way from injury news being negative,” said Sunny Gupta, U.S. sportsbook manager for Tipico. “This news is similar to a big free agent signing in the NBA, like when Kawhi Leonard went to the Clippers and [they] traded for Paul George.
“Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tiger Woods have about the same odds on most books to win the Masters,” Gupta added. “But to make the cut, Fitzpatrick is -300, while Tiger is about even odds. This illustrates how much books are trying to reduce liability on a Tiger Woods Masters win.”
What are Tiger’s true odds?
Which brings the question: What would Woods’ true odds be if his name weren’t Tiger Woods?
“I think under these current circumstances, Tiger’s true odds of winning are around 200/1, down from 500/1 last week,” observed Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of race and sports at Las Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook. (“Last week” would have been before Woods showed up at Augusta National to play a couple of practice rounds, which got the gallery buzzing.)
“If you take the name off of him, and here’s his form line, and he hasn’t played in this amount of months, and you don’t know the course history, he’s 500/1,” seconded Pullen. “But he’s no average Joe. He’s one of the best golfers of all time and a multiple winner. It’s a totally unique situation. Practice rounds only say so much, but it certainly wouldn’t be surprising for him to rekindle his game on a course he loves.”
