• About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling
This site contains commercial content
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News
No Result
View All Result
SportsHandle
No Result
View All Result

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno Over Boise, Washington State A Short Road Favorite And More

Thomas Casale by Thomas Casale
November 8, 2018
in Sports
cfb picks fresno state boise week 11
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. Season Record: 17-13.

This week we have six plays, including Fresno State laying a short number on the road in Boise and fading Duke as a big favorite.

Also check out our NFL Week 10 “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias. Back to the college game:

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno State Bulldogs -2.5 at Boise State, Fading Duke, And More Miami Dominance Over Georgia Tech


Fresno State -2.5 over Boise State (Friday)

This is a huge game in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is 8-1 and Boise State 7-2. It might be surprising to see the Broncos as the home dog here but there’s a reason for it. Fresno State is just a much better team.

The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and won last year in Boise 28-17. Boise State has already lost at home to San Diego State and its offense struggles against better defenses. Fresno State is holding conference opponents to 93 yards below their season average, while quarterbacks hit just 48 percent of their passes against the Bulldogs.

A Las Vegas oddsmaker recently stated he would make Fresno State around a field goal favorite over UCF on a neutral field. The Bulldogs are the best non-Power 5 team this season. There’s value taking the Bulldogs under a field goal. They should win rather easily on the road in a showcase game.


Washington State -6 over Colorado

colorado washington state cfb picks week 11

Washington State won a tight game at home over a tough Cal team last week, 19-13. The close call was the Cougars first loss against the spread in their last nine games.

This isn’t a great spot to go against Washington State. Colorado is dealing with multiple key injuries and have lost four straight games. The Buffs gave up 83 points in their last two losses to Oregon State and Arizona. Colorado is 1-3 ATS in its last four games and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Normally this would be a good spot to take Colorado as a home dog but the Buffaloes are free-falling since opening the season 5-0. Washington State quarterback Gardner Minshew should pick apart an injury-riddled Colorado secondary. I’ll lay the short number on the road here.


Miami +3.5 over Georgia Tech

I have a pretty good read on options teams. I’m 3-0 in Georgia Tech games and 5-1 overall in games involving option teams this year. It’s pretty simple; some defenses can stop the option and some can’t. If you can identify those situations, betting for or against option teams can be profitable.

A couple of weeks ago I took Duke as an underdog over Georgia Tech, citing that David Cutcliffe was one the top coaches at defending the option and his record proved it. Mark Richt is also in that category. Richt’s teams have eaten up Georgia Tech’s option offense dating back to his days at Georgia. Richt is 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS versus Georgia Tech overall in his career.

Miami leads the nation in tackles for losses and gives up just 123 yards per game on the ground. Georgia Tech’s defense ranks 78th against the pass, which should allow the inconsistent Miami offense to score some points in this game.

I’ll take Richt and Miami to continue their dominance over Georgia Tech as more than a field goal underdog (Update: Most books now have Miami at +3, -105).


North Carolina +10 over Duke

Speaking of teams that are easy to figure out, Duke is one of them. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 1-4 ATS as a favorite with the one win coming against option team Army. Duke is a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

North Carolina is 1-7 on the season but 3-4-1 ATS. The Tar Heels aren’t quite as bad as their record. North Carolina has played pretty well in their last three games against Syracuse, Virginia and Georgia Tech but has come up short each time.

This number feels a little off to me. I thought it would be closer to a touchdown. There have been four outright upsets in the last six meetings between these two schools. I won’t be surprised if there’s another one and UNC pulls the upset.

UCLA +13.5 over Arizona State

This number is higher than I expected. I had Oregon last week against UCLA. It was a bad spot for the Bruins and while they lost 42-21, UCLA actually played better than the final score suggests. Oregon covered and was laying 10 points. Now Arizona State is laying 13.5? Something doesn’t seem right.

These two teams are going in opposite directions. Arizona State has won and covered two straight, while UCLA has been outscored 83-21 in two losses to Oregon and Utah. So, on paper, you have to be crazy to bet UCLA, right?

Here’s the thing: Arizona State beat Utah last week. The Sun Devils own that series and Utah’s starting quarterback Tyler Huntley was injured in the third quarter, so ASU’s 38-20 win is overvaluing this line.

I had the number for the game around 10, so I’m hopping on UCLA here. There have been four outright upsets in the last seven meetings. I don’t know if UCLA wins but I’ll gladly take the 13.5 points with the Bruins.


Check out our NFL betting podcast, “The Pro Football Handle”:

Share2TweetShare
Thomas Casale

Thomas Casale

Thomas Casale is the Editor of Sports Betting Content for RotoGrinders. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. Before coming to RotoGrinders, Thomas contributed to The Linemakers and worked as an editor at BetChicago. He's also provided fantasy sports analysis for multiple websites and print publications, while covering the NFL, college football, college basketball and MMA at different media outlets.

Related Posts

snoqualmie sportsbook
Legal

Judge Dismisses Lawsuit Challenging Tribal Control Of Sports Betting In Washington State

February 22, 2023
Shutterstock
Legislation

Card Room-Backed Sports Wagering Bill Filed In Washington State

January 27, 2023
Load More

Top Stories

taylor mathis

Taylor Mathis Got Sacrificed At The Altar Of Responsible Gambling

March 20, 2023
fanduel baseball wall

Premade Same Game Parlays Are Sucker Bets

March 13, 2023
maginfier-over-small-print

Read The Fine Print: A Proposed Federal Rule Could Change Everything For Indian Gaming

March 6, 2023
roman reigns wwe

Colorado Denies Report Stating That It’s Considering WWE Wagering

March 8, 2023

State Sports Betting Guides

Ohio (U.S. state) flag waving against clear blue sky, close up, isolated with clipping path mask alpha channel transparency, perfect for film, news, composition

Ohio Sports Betting – Where To Play, Bonus Offers And Promo Codes

by Brian Pempus
March 30, 2023

Downtown Detroit at twilight (Shutterstock)

Michigan Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
March 27, 2023

VA captial

Virginia Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonus Offers

by Brett Smiley
January 17, 2023

nj flag

New Jersey Sports Betting — Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks, And FAQ

by Brett Smiley
March 22, 2023

pa online sportsbooks

Pennsylvania Sports Betting – Where To Play, Online Sportsbooks And Bonuses

by Brett Smiley
October 6, 2022

Canada Sports Betting Guides

Canada Sports Betting – Best Sportsbook Apps & Bonus Offers

British Columbia Sports Betting – Legal Update, Available Sportsbooks, and FAQ

Ontario Sports Betting – Legal Status And Where To Play

SportsHandle

  • Analysis
  • Casino
  • Features
  • Horse Racing
  • Industry
  • Legal
  • Legislation
  • Opinion
  • Podcasts
  • Poker
  • Politics
  • Promotions
  • Regulation
  • Sports
  • Uncategorized

Better Collective

This website is owned and operated by Better Collective USA. Trademarks and copyrights referenced on this website are and shall remain the exclusive property of their respective owners and/or licensors. Please be sure to visit the operator’s website(s) to review their terms & conditions. We advise you to read these carefully as they contain important information. Copyright © 2023 USBets.com | Better Collective USA
21 Play Responsibly
Gamble Aware West Virginia
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
GameSense

Search Sports Handle

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us / Contact
  • Responsible Gambling

No Result
View All Result
  • US Sports Betting
    • Arizona
    • Arkansas
    • Colorado
    • Connecticut
    • Delaware
    • Illinois
    • Indiana
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Louisiana
    • Maine
    • Maryland
    • Massachusetts
    • Michigan
    • Mississippi
    • New Jersey
    • New Mexico
    • New York
    • Ohio
    • Oregon
    • Pennsylvania
    • Tennessee
    • Virginia
    • West Virginia
    • Wyoming
  • Pending States
    • California
    • Florida
    • Georgia
    • Missouri
    • North Carolina
  • Canada
    • Ontario
    • British Columbia
    • Alberta
  • Sportsbook Apps
    • FanDuel
    • BetMGM
    • Caesars
    • PointsBet
    • BetRivers
  • Tools
    • Sportsbook Bonuses Explained
    • Sports Betting Revenue Tracker
    • Sports Betting Podcasts
    • Partnership Tracker
    • Expected Value
    • Sports Scores And Odds Apps
    • Sports Betting Twitter
  • News

loading

Please wait while you are redirected to the right page...